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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
Gnutella
post Aug 14 2017, 10:03 PM
Post #181




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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 9 2017, 12:19 AM) *
Hmmm....he must have read my 1985-86 analog off this forum laugh.gif


After the last two winters, I'll gladly take a winter like 1985-1986. That was a front-loaded winter, which is a welcome change from all the back-loaded or nonexistent winters we've had since 2011.
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Aug 14 2017, 10:03 PM) *
After the last two winters, I'll gladly take a winter like 1985-1986. That was a front-loaded winter, which is a welcome change from all the back-loaded or nonexistent winters we've had since 2011.



I love that analog for ENSO but there are some better ones for other reasons
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 11:20 PM
Post #183




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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 14 2017, 07:48 PM) *
Closest matches on all parameters are 1962-63 & 1974-75

Except on sea ice smile.gif



1962-63, 1974-75 were the top 2 analogs using ENSO, QBO, PDO, & Solar

Those two years had August that looked like this:






And the DJF period looked like this:






All for fun & to get the thinking juices flowing. wink.gif
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kpk33x
post Aug 15 2017, 01:06 PM
Post #184




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Following along with a great discussion - lots of good info from everyone.

My $.02 is that the closer we are to neutral, the higher impact that the NAO state has on the eastern third of the country. The further east and northeast, the more visible the NAO will be. Get across the Mississippi then even weaker ENSO will be more evident and the other western/Pacific patterns could take over. Get a persistent ridge or trough in the Aleutians, that could override anything else.

The stronger Nino/Nina there is, the more that this will override the pattern and any other influences that impact the winter. If exactly neutral it is a dart board. If leaning Nina, then I would expect to see "nina-ish" tendencies unless you get a NAO in either direction persistent and strong. I also think without ENSO dominating the winter you will see a changeable winter without a December 2015 or February 2015 "stuck" pattern. (I did say that about last winter and that's pretty much what we got, although it ran warm there were some brief but impressive cold shots, and lots of storms).

Other factors such as sea ice and low solar are surely factors. If we lean toward the Nina threshold I would think we'd have more tendency for zonal and thus drier over most of the country, stormier and colder northern tier. But just a guess at this point...


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2
July - 0

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 10
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
7/1 - hit by edge of tornado-warned thunderstorm (heavy rain - also flood warning)
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 15 2017, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 15 2017, 02:06 PM) *
Following along with a great discussion - lots of good info from everyone.

My $.02 is that the closer we are to neutral, the higher impact that the NAO state has on the eastern third of the country. The further east and northeast, the more visible the NAO will be. Get across the Mississippi then even weaker ENSO will be more evident and the other western/Pacific patterns could take over. Get a persistent ridge or trough in the Aleutians, that could override anything else.

The stronger Nino/Nina there is, the more that this will override the pattern and any other influences that impact the winter. If exactly neutral it is a dart board. If leaning Nina, then I would expect to see "nina-ish" tendencies unless you get a NAO in either direction persistent and strong. I also think without ENSO dominating the winter you will see a changeable winter without a December 2015 or February 2015 "stuck" pattern. (I did say that about last winter and that's pretty much what we got, although it ran warm there were some brief but impressive cold shots, and lots of storms).

Other factors such as sea ice and low solar are surely factors. If we lean toward the Nina threshold I would think we'd have more tendency for zonal and thus drier over most of the country, stormier and colder northern tier. But just a guess at this point...


I believe that post was $.16

laugh.gif


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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NorEaster07
post Aug 15 2017, 03:20 PM
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The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast

At least theres no "numbing cold & snowy" type words on there. Lol

Attached File  IMG_20170815_161913.jpg ( 73.87K ) Number of downloads: 9
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bretmw1019
post Aug 15 2017, 03:42 PM
Post #187




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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 15 2017, 12:20 AM) *
1962-63, 1974-75 were the top 2 analogs using ENSO, QBO, PDO, & Solar

Those two years had August that looked like this:




And the DJF period looked like this:




All for fun & to get the thinking juices flowing. wink.gif


To be fair though, 1974-75 was a pretty warm winter. I think it's the risk we run with the potential for another +NAO winter (based on SSTs.... low solar may help) or if the PDO starts to trend back negative. I have in my notes that 74-75 was a neutral-negative PDO winter.

Attached File  DJF_74_75.png ( 212.32K ) Number of downloads: 1


62-63 was predominately a -NAO winter.

Attached File  DJF_62_63.png ( 398.96K ) Number of downloads: 1


Kind of polar opposites.
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weather_boy2010
post Aug 15 2017, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 15 2017, 03:20 PM) *
The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast

At least theres no "numbing cold & snowy" type words on there. Lol

Attached File  IMG_20170815_161913.jpg ( 73.87K ) Number of downloads: 9


They've learned their lesson after the last two years! Lol
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kpk33x
post Aug 15 2017, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 15 2017, 03:34 PM) *
I believe that post was $.16

laugh.gif


$0.02 of meteorological knowledge, $0.14 of pure buttery goodness... tongue.gif


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2
July - 0

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 10
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
7/1 - hit by edge of tornado-warned thunderstorm (heavy rain - also flood warning)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 15 2017, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Aug 15 2017, 04:44 PM) *
They've learned their lesson after the last two years! Lol

Hah. That's a good one. Just give it another year.

Agreed, surprised about the lack of hype in their outlook.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 7 (Last: 8/16/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Aug 15 2017, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Aug 15 2017, 03:42 PM) *
To be fair though, 1974-75 was a pretty warm winter. I think it's the risk we run with the potential for another +NAO winter (based on SSTs.... low solar may help) or if the PDO starts to trend back negative. I have in my notes that 74-75 was a neutral-negative PDO winter.

Attached File  DJF_74_75.png ( 212.32K ) Number of downloads: 1


62-63 was predominately a -NAO winter.

Attached File  DJF_62_63.png ( 398.96K ) Number of downloads: 1


Kind of polar opposites.


This isn't not a forecast...nor is it my favorite analogs. As the post sated those are just the two years that have the most factors in common.

On the PDO, both we're close to neutral. -0.15 & +0. 15 not that big of a difference for sensible weather.

Also a good example of why analog can be very deceptive. You can have the exact same factors if that were possible and have completely different outcomes when it comes to sensible weather. That's why a blend of analogs is more helpful.

Right now my favorite analog blend is: 1960-61, 1962-63, 1974-75, 1981-82, 1985-86, 2005-06, 2013-14, 2015-16

There are major differences in those analogs.

This post has been edited by grace: Yesterday, 12:34 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 15 2017, 10:18 PM
Post #192




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 15 2017, 08:19 PM) *
Submerged cold pool really building up now





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 7 (Last: 8/16/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:52 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Aug 15 2017, 04:44 PM) *
They've learned their lesson after the last two years! Lol



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 15 2017, 08:08 PM) *
Hah. That's a good one. Just give it another year.

Agreed, surprised about the lack of hype in their outlook.


Got around to adding to the compilation. I forgot "Chill to the bone" and "Penetrating Cold".

I wonder if last years was because they needed more viewers on their site. Did seem odd and out of place they did that.


Attached File  Farmers1.jpg ( 492.09K ) Number of downloads: 18
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bretmw1019
post Yesterday, 10:43 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 15 2017, 08:44 PM) *
This isn't not a forecast...nor is it my favorite analogs. As the post sated those are just the two years that have the most factors in common.

On the PDO, both we're close to neutral. -0.15 & +0. 15 not that big of a difference for sensible weather.

Also a good example of why analog can be very deceptive. You can have the exact same factors if that were possible and have completely different outcomes when it comes to sensible weather. That's why a blend of analogs is more helpful.

Right now my favorite analog blend is: 1960-61, 1962-63, 1974-75, 1981-82, 1985-86, 2005-06, 2013-14, 2015-16

There are major differences in those analogs.


Definitely, I was more pointing out that it can be deceptive, especially with only a couple years.
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