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idecline
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
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Local Time: Jul 17 2018, 05:59 AM
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idecline

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25 Apr 2018
...The 144th edition of The Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday May 5th...
...the Kentucky Oaks is on Friday May 4th...both races are run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY

Rain, thunderstorms or even a wet track can have a profound effect on the running of the Kentucky Derby...
It can effect the track condition(dry, wet, or muddy) and change the strategies of the riders or trainers...
Also, some horses tend to run better in the mud or wet track than others...all these factors play an important role in the running and outcome of this "Run for the Roses"...

We will try to keep informed of the possibilities...especially starting Sunday Night into Monday...when a clearer picture of what is to come 10 days from now...so far the long term upper air models are forecasting strong thunderstorms in the Plains mid-week...so it looks like a wet or drying out track are already a big possibility...

...taken from the AccuWeather thread about Severe Weather from Apr. 30-May?
Attached File  r0P64ou.png ( 443.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this shows the 'possibility' of severe weather coming up next week...and Louisville and Churchill Downs may be in the firing line following this first mid-week outbreak...

Attached File  500wh.conus.png ( 632.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the upper air for midday Friday shows a definite system of some type may be encroaching on the area

Stay Tuned...
7 Jun 2017
Perhaps few will read this or care about a weather system hitting the West Coast in June...it is unusual though

Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 685.63K ) Number of downloads: 29


...had to open a thread so some could observe the obvious 'jet streak' which is darting quickly into the back of the first wave of energy that is now reaching the coast...if you watch carefully...an arrow shaped upper signature flies out of the LP in the GOA and is sending upper air (jet energy) reinforcements into the back side of "second' larger front that is still offshore...this should increase uplift and augment rainfall...esp. along the immediate coastline as the front reaches the coastal mountain ranges of California and Oregon...

...the 24hr (12Z Thurs) OPC Pacific 500mb forecast:

Attached File  P_24hr500.gif ( 255.18K ) Number of downloads: 226


...this shows the elongated trough in the upper atmosphere...and the uplift of the front as makes way inland...

...the 48hr OPC surface:

Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 263.43K ) Number of downloads: 228


...this shows the "trophiness" sticking around as the lows do the "Fujiwhara" dance... huh.gif
...before moving the whole trough into the CONUS by the weekend...

idee

10 Apr 2017
A wet late week into the weekend brought in another series of unusually wet and windy storms into the West...rainfall is not a necessarily 'normal' weather pattern for April in California...it is usually just the tail end of fronts that push into Washington State and British Columbia as the jet (usually dry.gif ) moves north in Spring...

Here is the next moisture rich storm moving into the picture...with a band of sub-tropical clouds all the way to Hawaii...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 625.99K ) Number of downloads: 31


...and the 48hr OPC surface map shows the first front pulling through California on Wednesday morning...
with a stronger 'second wave' arriving shortly there after to feast on the residual moisture...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 295.64K ) Number of downloads: 296


...and the OPC 96hr 500mb map shows 'clear sailing' for the jet to pump energy into the West at least into the weekend... wink.gif
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 259.15K ) Number of downloads: 279


...will the records continue to fall out West...? ...and will this greatly effect the rest of the CONUS...?

rolleyes.gif ...idecline to be so bold... laugh.gif
1 Feb 2017
Low pressure swirling off the west coast will apparently linger for days bringing wave after wave of rain and winds into the West...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 675.46K ) Number of downloads: 30


48hr OPC agrees
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 299.68K ) Number of downloads: 540


and OPC 96hr says :
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 303.46K ) Number of downloads: 521


and with a flattened ridge more energy is gearing up to the West...
6 Dec 2016
Jet stream bringing in another a series of systems..
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 704.45K ) Number of downloads: 33


Rain along California coast and into Oregon Thu./Fri. Mountain snow in Cascades and Sierras could be plentiful with cold air in place...
Attached File  fill_98qwbg.gif ( 26.3K ) Number of downloads: 707


OPC has jet pointed right at Ore./Cal. border
Attached File  P_48hr500.gif ( 264.46K ) Number of downloads: 698


Unusual that so many 'waves' are at or below 40o latitude...seems to be some kind of parade...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 301.94K ) Number of downloads: 670


as things get sorted out the jet stays directly at same latitude according to OPC 96hr
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 253.17K ) Number of downloads: 680


Too many 'features' come into play in the next 4-5 days to be sure of the 96hr OPC map...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 279.83K ) Number of downloads: 721


We have already had a 'wet' October and November in California...and this looks nothing like an El Nino or La Nina pattern to me

The massive unpredictability of a La Nada (near normal) ENSO pattern...means great 'volatility' to idee
huh.gif
Last Visitors


4 Jun 2018 - 19:18


12 Feb 2018 - 18:49


12 Jan 2017 - 14:48


25 Oct 2016 - 19:22


7 Oct 2016 - 19:28

Comments
Beck
Thank you, Idee =)
25 Sep 2012 - 3:59
wingsovernc
Time to make a comment on my last comment! :O Sorry about that, but u forgave...thank you! :D
28 Jul 2012 - 9:54
wingsovernc
Hi sweet guy! I just now saw your comment.. ur such a sweetie! <3 <3
4 Jul 2012 - 20:45
wingsovernc
Just playing around 'cause you're not around to stop me! (Tongue-out emo goes here)
14 May 2012 - 17:28
Beck
Here's your comment....!
13 Aug 2011 - 0:22

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