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> Winter 2017-18
Lake effect
post Sep 14 2017, 07:37 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Sep 11 2017, 07:25 PM) *
What's up everyone. Nice to see you all still on here. smile.gif
Looking forward to Winter! Lake effect - you back in Canada?


I never left in the end. Circumstances conspired to keep me here...got a very good job offer along with poor timing with trying to sell our home. So at least one more winter, and after the last two I am hoping for a classic, along the lines of what TWN are saying in their winter preview, which I posted on the autumn thread, and what Travis just said above.

From the Barrie perspective, I think we could be in for a blockbuster. This late season warmth will really impact Lake Huron temps which were trending around or below normal until recently, but with another week or two of sustained warmth, we could see the lake temp start to track above normal, which is one ingredient for the perfect LES recipe. These two weeks of warmth could extend the LES potential by another week or two into early February. The other LES ingredient is a stream of cold air coming in from the NW, if the center has a cold ridge over it, that could definitely result in some nice LES conditions, provided it doesn't sit too far East.

With the prospect of more Colorado lows crossing the region, I am anticipating an above average snow season here in Barrie, possibly 3 to 3.5 meters in some parts of town (2010/11 had close to 4m for some).

Attached File  avgtemps_h_1992_2016.gif ( 10.91K ) Number of downloads: 0
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MrMusic
post Sep 14 2017, 09:17 AM
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Colorado lows, or Colorado cutters...I'll believe it when I see it!


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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NortheastWind
post Sep 14 2017, 10:53 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Sep 14 2017, 09:17 AM) *
Colorado lows, or Colorado cutters...I'll believe it when I see it!

Less chance of cutters if the La Nina happens.
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Lake effect
post Sep 14 2017, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Sep 14 2017, 09:17 AM) *
Colorado lows, or Colorado cutters...I'll believe it when I see it!


I'm sure there will be a GLC or two, and you are more likely to be on the wrong side of the freezing line down there even if they are lows running up the 401, but I hope its not like last year which was GLC overdose.
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MrMusic
post Sep 14 2017, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Sep 14 2017, 12:43 PM) *
I'm sure there will be a GLC or two, and you are more likely to be on the wrong side of the freezing line down there even if they are lows running up the 401, but I hope its not like last year which was GLC overdose.


If there was a cutter-rehab program, I'd have signed up last year.
Can't be that bad again.
The storm track we had in Apr-May was wicked. Would LOVE that!


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 14 2017, 05:20 PM
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Obviously still well too early, but I think TWN has the right idea with there winter forecast at this time. Looks like there leaning towards more of a central trough look which could very well lead to more lows tracking in to S.ON with more frozen precip than last winter.
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stuffradio
post Sep 14 2017, 10:20 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Sep 14 2017, 03:20 PM) *
Obviously still well too early, but I think TWN has the right idea with there winter forecast at this time. Looks like there leaning towards more of a central trough look which could very well lead to more lows tracking in to S.ON with more frozen precip than last winter.

As long as I get a decent amount of snow, I hope we all get snow. biggrin.gif
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snowgeek93
post Sep 15 2017, 06:04 AM
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Hopefully this La Nina doesn't mean a repeat of winter 2011-12 around here. This possible La Nina event certainly looks more defined and eastern based than last year's at this time.



--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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snowgeek93
post Sep 17 2017, 03:37 PM
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La Nina really getting going now...

Attached File  cdas_sflux_ssta_global_1.png ( 126.46K ) Number of downloads: 4


A year ago...



--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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newfiebrit
post Yesterday, 01:35 PM
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"Cold an snowy" in this region...must be true! :

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