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Ryan Duff
Rank: F5 Superstorm
33 years old
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Havre de Grace, MD
Born July-30-1984
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Joined: 2-February 10
Profile Views: 48,174*
Last Seen: 16th April 2018 - 07:20 AM
Local Time: Apr 21 2018, 05:54 AM
8,303 posts (3 per day)
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15 Jun 2016
Bit of a non-traditional thread and I don't think we have too many members from the southwest, but figured I'd open just to track for posterity.
I may end up adjusting the end date somewhat since the GFS seems to want to keep the 110F+ highs around through the 25th. Interesting discussion and climatology from NWS Phoenix QUOTE Friday through Wednesday...
Not much change in the forecast thinking during this period either, with the latest global model suites still building very strong ridging into the region from the SE as the upper trof along the West Coast weakens and moves off to the NE. Models are still pushing 500mb heights upward to near, or even slightly above 600dm, with 850mb temperatures rising into the 33-37C range during the Sun-Tues time period. These values, if they verify, would be at historic levels (99th or Max percentile) rivaling the June 1990 heat wave. After highs in the 104-107F range on Friday and the 107-111F range on Saturday, it still appears very likely the highs will rise into the very dangerous 115-120F range from Sunday into next Tuesday. These extreme temperatures, combined with a slight increase of the dewpoint temperatures will keep overnight lows very warm as well with the warmest lower desert locations struggling to fall below 90F. Although temperatures will likely cool a bit next Wednesday as the ridging finally begins to weaken, lower desert highs will likely still approach Excessive Heat criteria, especially if the warmer GFS verifies. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures late this week through early next week: Date Phoenix Yuma ---- ------- ---- June 18 115 in 2015 116 in 2015 June 19 115 in 1968 115 in 1960 June 20 115 in 1968 116 in 2008 June 21 115 in 2008 116 in 1968 June 22 116 in 1988 115 in 1960 Top 5 hottest temperatures all-time: Rank Phoenix Yuma ---- ------- ---- 1) 122 on June 26 1990 124 on July 28 1995 2) 121 on July 28 1995 123 on Sept 1 1950 3) 120 on June 25 1990 122 on June 26 1990 4) 119 on June 29 2013 120 on Aug 27 1981 5) 118 on several days 120 on June 24 1957
8 Feb 2016
Looks like rain has started in western PA per turnpike traffic cams.
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16 Feb 2015
3 Jan 2015
Precip beginning to move into the area.
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11 Mar 2014
QUOTE SPC AC 111710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EMERGING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD AND REACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF D2/WED. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL PHASE WITH A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SSEWD FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE RESULTING PERTURBATION WILL BE A POTENT...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES. HIGH-MAGNITUDE...LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION PRECEDING THIS TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND INTENSIFYING LLJ OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE ENEWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A FRONTAL CYCLONE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW OF THE CYCLONE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE CYCLONE ALLOW A WARM SECTOR TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NJ. ...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ..COHEN.. 03/11/2014 |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 21st April 2018 - 04:54 AM |