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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 8 2017, 05:19 PM
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Looks like the Nina is about to make a big comeback like CFS has been seeing



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 8 2017, 07:33 PM
Post #242




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Current equatorial upper-ocean heat anomalies (0m-300m) for September are very similar to last September. A big difference, though, is how much both years changed from August to September. Didn't change much from August to September. But it changed a lot this year.

CODE
YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W
2016    8    -0.50     -0.56      -0.71
2016    9    -0.48     -0.55      -0.71
2016   10    -0.59     -0.75      -0.92

2017    8    -0.19     -0.21      -0.40
2017    9    -0.46     -0.57      -0.79


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 8 2017, 07:33 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 8 2017, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 8 2017, 06:19 PM) *
Looks like the Nina is about to make a big comeback like CFS has been seeing

No kidding, I'm looking forwards to seeing how quickly the various indices tank. Nino 1+2 is about to pass by it's previous September minimum. If the previous tanking phase in mid-September is any indication it might drop all the way to -2C before leveling off again.
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Attached File  10_8_nino12.png ( 40.96K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 03:17 PM
Post #244




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wow






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 10 2017, 03:18 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Oct 10 2017, 03:30 PM
Post #245




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 10 2017, 04:17 PM) *
wow


For those of us who dont religiously look at these graphics or dont remember from last time we need more than a "wow" comment. Lol. tongue.gif

Are u commenting on the 5000' wind anomaly at 150E and how deep the below normal temps are? What is the wow factor?

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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 10 2017, 04:56 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 10 2017, 04:30 PM) *
For those of us who dont religiously look at these graphics or dont remember from last time we need more than a "wow" comment. Lol. tongue.gif

Are u commenting on the 5000' wind anomaly at 150E and how deep the below normal temps are? What is the wow factor?

I think he's amazed at just how quickly SSTAs are dropping combined with the 850 mb wind anomalies that imply the rapid cooling will continue.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Oct 10 2017, 05:17 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 04:57 PM
Post #247




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 10 2017, 04:30 PM) *
For those of us who dont religiously look at these graphics or dont remember from last time we need more than a "wow" comment. Lol. tongue.gif

Are u commenting on the 5000' wind anomaly at 150E and how deep the below normal temps are? What is the wow factor?

All of the above.

We haven't seen basin-wide enhanced trade winds yet in this event... and I don't think we saw it last year either. (The question now is will it verify... given CFS has been suggesting a big Nina comeback this month and next month for a while, I think there's a very good chance)

Nina 1+2 has been cooling rapidly for the past 5 days, and this comes only after a few days of enhanced trades in the area. Not only is this impressive, but this also means that the normally cool water in the east is much cooler than normal. This will enhance the cooldown that one would normally expect from enhanced trade winds. It's the same idea as laying down a fresh snow pack ahead of an Arctic front.



The extent of the subsurface water is impressive as well. Compare it to what we had 2 weeks ago... the 4C contours disappeared but the 3C contours are still there and the entire cold pool has expanded west.




A loop of subsurface over the past 2 months. This really developed quite quickly.



Finally... as of recent, the north Pacific is cooling. Given the forecast of a major NE Pac/western NA trough... also expecting a PDO and GOA cooldown. The days of a weak-moderate +PDO may be numbered.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 10 2017, 05:01 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Oct 10 2017, 07:28 PM
Post #248




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 10 2017, 05:56 PM) *
I think he's amazed at just how quickly SSTAs are dropping combined with the 850 mb wind anomalies that imply the rapid cooling will continue.


Thanks!

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 10 2017, 05:57 PM) *
All of the above.

We haven't seen basin-wide enhanced trade winds yet in this event... and I don't think we saw it last year either. (The question now is will it verify... given CFS has been suggesting a big Nina comeback this month and next month for a while, I think there's a very good chance)

Nina 1+2 has been cooling rapidly for the past 5 days, and this comes only after a few days of enhanced trades in the area. Not only is this impressive, but this also means that the normally cool water in the east is much cooler than normal. This will enhance the cooldown that one would normally expect from enhanced trade winds. It's the same idea as laying down a fresh snow pack ahead of an Arctic front.

The extent of the subsurface water is impressive as well. Compare it to what we had 2 weeks ago... the 4C contours disappeared but the 3C contours are still there and the entire cold pool has expanded west.

A loop of subsurface over the past 2 months. This really developed quite quickly.

Finally... as of recent, the north Pacific is cooling. Given the forecast of a major NE Pac/western NA trough... also expecting a PDO and GOA cooldown. The days of a weak-moderate +PDO may be numbered.


And thanks! Didnt expect that. Good stuff.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 09:03 AM
Post #249




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 10 2017, 05:57 PM) *
All of the above.

We haven't seen basin-wide enhanced trade winds yet in this event... and I don't think we saw it last year either. (The question now is will it verify... given CFS has been suggesting a big Nina comeback this month and next month for a while, I think there's a very good chance)

Nina 1+2 has been cooling rapidly for the past 5 days, and this comes only after a few days of enhanced trades in the area. Not only is this impressive, but this also means that the normally cool water in the east is much cooler than normal. This will enhance the cooldown that one would normally expect from enhanced trade winds. It's the same idea as laying down a fresh snow pack ahead of an Arctic front.

The extent of the subsurface water is impressive as well. Compare it to what we had 2 weeks ago... the 4C contours disappeared but the 3C contours are still there and the entire cold pool has expanded west.

A loop of subsurface over the past 2 months. This really developed quite quickly.

Finally... as of recent, the north Pacific is cooling. Given the forecast of a major NE Pac/western NA trough... also expecting a PDO and GOA cooldown. The days of a weak-moderate +PDO may be numbered.

Even though PDO is widely considered to be a ~30 year oscillation, the monthly values closely mirror the ENSO values so they are not independent oscillations. Thus, considering the PDO phase as a separate forcing mechanism is a mistake, but I do agree that we're likely to see a -PDO this winter.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Oct 12 2017, 09:03 AM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2017, 12:04 PM
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New Discussion Posted. BTW -- Thread Title Change?

They are saying last month it was still Neutral but edging close to Nina conditions.


Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

QUOTE
Synopsis: La Niņa conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.


During September, ENSO-neutral conditions were reflected in near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly Niņo indices were volatile during the month, with negative values increasing to near zero during the past week in the Niņo-4, Niņo-3.4, and Niņo-3 regions (Fig. 2). In contrast, sub-surface temperature anomalies were increasingly negative during September (Fig. 3), reflecting the shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5).

Over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were anomalously easterly and upper-level winds were anomalously westerly. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral, although edging closer to La Niņa conditions.

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niņa is favored in the dynamical model averages of the IRI/CPC plume (Fig. 6) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) (Fig. 7). Several models indicate a period of near-average Niņo-3.4 values in the upcoming weeks, but then predict reinvigorated growth of negative SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing easterly wind anomalies across portions of the Pacific Ocean and the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures. In summary, La Niņa conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18


Attached File  Nino4.jpg ( 252.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  Nino5.jpg ( 65.37K ) Number of downloads: 0

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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 02:15 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 12 2017, 01:04 PM) *
New Discussion Posted. BTW -- Thread Title Change?

They are saying last month it was still Neutral but edging close to Nina conditions.


Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Thanks for posting the discussion! We've been calling for a thread title change since mid-September, but the thread starter is nowhere to be found. Maybe a moderator will stop by at some point.

The three most recent ONI values are +0.4, +0.1, and -0.1 so it's headed in the right direction for a Nina event. Based on recent trends and historic analogs, I wouldn't be surprised to see the next (August-October) ONI value near or below the -0.5C threshold.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2017, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 12 2017, 03:15 PM) *
Thanks for posting the discussion! We've been calling for a thread title change since mid-September, but the thread starter is nowhere to be found. Maybe a moderator will stop by at some point.

The three most recent ONI values are +0.4, +0.1, and -0.1 so it's headed in the right direction for a Nina event. Based on recent trends and historic analogs, I wouldn't be surprised to see the next (August-October) ONI value near or below the -0.5C threshold.


Send a mod a message. I'm too lazy.

Actually... Why haven't we just started a new La Nina Thread instead? Even though this thread was started Jan 30 this year, by March-April we were realizing the Nino failing. Was cool to skim through just now actually.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 12 2017, 09:05 PM
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New JAMSTEC. Nino 3.4 is barely in Nina threshold, but looks like it's going to be more east-based than 3.4.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 11:11 PM
Post #254




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30-day average SOI is now above 10. SSTs may be weak, but the atmospheric portion of the Nina is in full force.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 10:02 PM
Post #255




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0.5C drop in region 3.4. Alrighty then.


CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 10:27 PM
Post #256




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 10 2017, 05:57 PM) *




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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