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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
VASnowstormHunte...
post Feb 21 2017, 11:44 PM
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Ironically this is the exact same day a year ago I started the 2016-2017 thread. Again, I decided to post it now since I will be unable to do it on the day I typically start it (March 1).

As with previous years, I always find it nice to send off the past winter with the opening of a new thread for the next one.We can use this thread to discuss our thoughts, the trends and any outlooks/forecasts... both professional and amateur.

I am a longtime lurker and seldom poster. Let this post serve as a huge thank you to all who contribute to this thread every year in such a meaningful way. Truly a pleasure to continue to learn from this community.

Here's to hopefully a great 2017-2018 winter season in your backyard! Cheers!

This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Feb 22 2017, 09:11 PM
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goblue96
post Feb 22 2017, 04:12 PM
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Getting this in early. laugh.gif

Attached File  Weatherman_wrong.jpg ( 73.3K ) Number of downloads: 5


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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cary67
post Feb 22 2017, 05:11 PM
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Heard it could be El Nino winter. Either way above normal temps. and below normal snowfall wink.gif
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Ahoff
post Feb 22 2017, 06:05 PM
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I don't see how next winter could be worse than this past winter, but I thought that last year too.
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grace
post Feb 23 2017, 01:12 PM
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"It will be the coldest, snowiest, wildest winter since 1977-78" JB tongue.gif

He hasn't said that...yet smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 23 2017, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Feb 23 2017, 01:12 PM) *
"It will be the coldest, snowiest, wildest winter since 1977-78" JB tongue.gif

He hasn't said that...yet smile.gif

Hahahaha. $100 says he releases a cold winter outlook in April or May smile.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Gnutella
post Feb 23 2017, 09:59 PM
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Is it too much to ask for a seasonable Christmas this time? mad.gif

This post has been edited by Gnutella: Feb 23 2017, 09:59 PM
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snowsux
post Feb 23 2017, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 23 2017, 01:28 PM) *
Hahahaha. $100 says he releases a cold winter outlook in April or May smile.gif


Modoki. He already said it.
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grace
post Feb 26 2017, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Feb 23 2017, 09:03 PM) *
Modoki. He already said it.



Well *bleep*....east based Nino coming for sure now! dry.gif

Time to keep the shorts out for Dec again. laugh.gif
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grace
post Apr 12 2017, 07:50 AM
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JAMSTEC UPDATE has a Modoki El Nino & a very cold Dec-Feb.

It's all down hill from here...lol

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...al/outlook.html
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 13 2017, 05:35 PM
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Chilly/damp weather continues in the west

Warm/dry weather continues in the southeast

Perhaps an active GLC storm track as we've seen develop this spring



--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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Gnutella
post Apr 14 2017, 03:17 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 13 2017, 06:35 PM) *
Chilly/damp weather continues in the west

Warm/dry weather continues in the southeast

Perhaps an active GLC storm track as we've seen develop this spring


jioptrvh;pkvr;.og.k[pl[p'dvgr.';s5vgr/;oke5y.;ace4t'l'5fyo'.[fce4t'[p'/xdrl'fo;



MAKE IT STAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHP!!!
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grace
post Apr 19 2017, 08:21 AM
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CFS has a 86-87, 94-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2009-10 type El Nino look by OND. Strength differences of course but I'm referring to warmest anomalies.

The above winters were all drastically different. So good luck making a winter forecast using ENSO as the main driver if CFS verifies.

This post has been edited by grace: Apr 19 2017, 09:30 PM
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RobB
post Apr 19 2017, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Apr 19 2017, 09:21 AM) *
CFS has a 86-87, 94-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2009-10 type El Nino look by OND. Strength differences of course but I'm referring to warmest anomalies.

The above winters were all drastically different. So good luck making a winter forecast using ENSO as the main driver if CRA verifies.



You could have stopped there smile.gif
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RobB
post Apr 19 2017, 08:23 AM
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Good 'hump' day to you, grace...
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Gnutella
post Apr 19 2017, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Apr 19 2017, 09:21 AM) *
CFS has a 86-87, 94-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2009-10 type El Nino look by OND. Strength differences of course but I'm referring to warmest anomalies.

The above winters were all drastically different. So good luck making a winter forecast using ENSO as the main driver if CRA verifies.


Based on local data in my area, 1994-1995 was above normal, 2004-2005 was normal, and 1986-1987, 2003-2004 and 2009-2010 were all below normal. All I want is a cold December, like 2003 or 2009. We haven't had a cold December since 2010.
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grace
post Apr 19 2017, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Apr 19 2017, 08:23 AM) *
Good 'hump' day to you, grace...



You to bro smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 02:01 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Apr 19 2017, 09:23 AM) *
You could have stopped there smile.gif

laugh.gif So true


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Apr 25 2017, 09:09 AM
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After much agonizing research my first prediction for next winter is that it will be colder in some places versus last winter & warmer in some places versus last winter. Some places will have above normal snowfall & some will have below.

You heard it here first smile.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Apr 25 2017, 09:09 AM
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kpk33x
post Apr 25 2017, 11:51 AM
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IMO at this early stage (we just melted off the last snow in town from THIS winter, and there's still snow on the mountains)...

If El Nino is going to be moderate - and current projections average out to a moderate Nino - then other winter forecast factors will weigh more heavily. A very strong ENSO (either way) will overwhelm the other factors as we've seen in recent winters.

But a moderate Nino - I think you have to take the general Nino pattern and edit it. Whether NAO is +/- will make a huge difference for the east coast and apps, and a persistent strongly negative NAO might cause cold but dry in New England (below normal snow) and cold and stormy further south in a suppressed pattern like 2009-10. If the NAO is changeable, that could hit everyone (many of the east coast's biggest storms occur when a strongly negative NAO is trending toward positive leaving cold air in place for the storm to move in). A reappearance of The Blob will certainly skew a ridge in the west and a trough in the east compared to no Blob.

Too early to tell other factors. Sea temperatures? Another blob? Where is it wet versus dry in the summer to fall months? So right now I am right with grace...it is a total dart board.


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: T (Dec. 10th)

# subzero lows to date: 0
Lowest temperature: 13F
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