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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
stuffradio
post Jun 15 2017, 11:38 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 14 2017, 06:04 PM) *
JAMSTEC finally updated. Finally budging on the Nino. Interestingly, it has a -PDO now. Last month it almost had a -PDO, but not quite.




Surface temp pattern isn't much different from last month... just slightly warmer.


That would be crazy. I just had my snowiest winter in decades this last year, but that was after a 5ish year major snow drought.
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scwxman
post Jun 16 2017, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jun 15 2017, 11:38 PM) *
That would be crazy. I just had my snowiest winter in decades this last year, but that was after a 5ish year major snow drought.


Just how accurate this far out has this been, based on past history? We've been cold and snow deprived in the southeast since 2010. I would LOVE this to play out.


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Without Cold, there is no life. Without Snow, there is no joy :)
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stuffradio
post Jun 16 2017, 12:57 PM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Jun 16 2017, 10:10 AM) *
Just how accurate this far out has this been, based on past history? We've been cold and snow deprived in the southeast since 2010. I would LOVE this to play out.

Sometimes it has caught on to the pattern months out, sometimes it flip flops. It's hard to say, and would be better to just keep an eye on it than rely on what it depicts for the Winter in the Summer.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 16 2017, 04:11 PM
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NWS Makes big changes to Winter Weather products!

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDDforWint...eformatting.pdf


  • The Freezing Rain Advisory and Lake Effect Snow Advisory products will no longer be issued
  • The “Blizzard Watch” and “Lake Effect Snow Watch” products will no longer be issued
  • The “Lake Effect Snow Warning” product will no longer be issued at these sites.(Duluth (DLH), Marquette (MQT), Green Bay (GRB), Milwaukee (MKX), Chicago (LOT), Northern Indiana (IWX), Grand Rapids (GRR), Gaylord (APX) and Detroit (DTX).


QUOTE
Part I - Mission Connection

a. Product/Service Description – Reformat all current Winter Weather products
(Watches, Warnings and Advisories) to follow a “What”, “Where”, “When”,
“Additional Details” and “Precautionary/ Preparedness Actions” order.
Consolidate the three winter precipitation Advisory products (“Winter Weather”,
“Freezing Rain” and “Lake Effect Snow”) into one “Winter Weather Advisory”
product. The Freezing Rain Advisory and Lake Effect Snow Advisory products will
no longer be issued. Instead, information regarding these hazards would be
contained in the “What” section of the reformatted message. The ZR.Y and LE.Y
Valid Time Event Coding (VTEC) will be discontinued.

Combine the three existing winter precipitation Watch products (“Winter Storm
Watch”, “Blizzard Watch”, and “Lake Effect Snow Watch”) into one “Winter Storm
Watch” product. The “Blizzard Watch” and “Lake Effect Snow Watch” products
will no longer be issued. Instead, information regarding these hazards will be
contained in the “What” section of the reformatted message. The BZ.A and LE.A
VTEC will be discontinued.

For the following selected sites in the National Weather Service (NWS) Central
Region, the “Lake Effect Snow Warning” product will be combined into the
“Winter Storm Warning” product. These sites include the following Weather
Forecast Offices: Duluth (DLH), Marquette (MQT), Green Bay (GRB), Milwaukee
(MKX), Chicago (LOT), Northern Indiana (IWX), Grand Rapids (GRR), Gaylord (APX)
and Detroit (DTX). The “Lake Effect Snow Warning” product will no longer be
issued at these sites. Instead, information regarding associated hazards and
impacts will be contained in the “What” section of the reformatted message.
The LE.W VTEC will be discontinued during the demonstration at these sites.

b. Product Type – Operational

c. Purpose - One of the outcomes of the Hazard Simplification (Haz Simp) Workshop
and other feedback mechanisms so far indicates strong support for an
amalgamation and shortening of NWS hazard products. Currently, over 100
outlooks, watches, warnings and statements populate the official
Watch/Warning/Advisory (WWA) map. This vast number of products often causes
customer confusion and, in the worst cases, leads to customer indifference to
critical NWS life-saving information. NWS has identified a requirement to
reduce the number of winter weather products as well as to simplify and shorten
the information – with a focus on impacts.

d. Audience - The target audiences for this product are customers and partners
such as emergency managers, state and local officials including school
superintendents, departments of transportation, media and the general public.

e. Presentation Format – These are text based products which appear over the WWA
page and all other standard dissemination methods. Some are are sent via NOAA
Weather Radio and the Emergency Alert System.


This is how the new Blizzard Watch will look like.


QUOTE
BLIZZARD WATCH: CONSOLIDATED AND RE-FORMATTED

Nantucket MA Including the city of Nantucket
429 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT: Blizzard Conditions Possible. Snow and blowing snow accumulating 2 to 4
inches. Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph possible. Visibility
one quarter mile or less at times.

* WHERE: Nantucket

* WHEN: Late Sunday night through Monday.

*ADDITIONAL DETAILS: Heavy snow and strong winds will create snow covered
roads, limited visibilities and produce scattered power outages. Whiteout
conditions will be possible making travel very dangerous.





This is how the new Lake Effect Snow Advisory will look like:

QUOTE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONSOLIDATED AND RE-FORMATTED
1024 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT: Lake Effect Snow Expected. Three to five inches of snow with squalls
lowering visibility to a quarter mile. Gusty northwest winds and temperatures
in the lower 20s.

*WHERE: Cleveland and surrounding areas.

*WHEN: Heaviest through 3 am but snow lingering until around sunrise.

*ADDITIONAL DETAILS: Snow accumulation on roadways will cause hazardous travel
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS:
During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow
to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can vary greatly. If you
will be traveling in the advisory area be
prepared for rapid changes in weather...visibility and road condition


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 16 2017, 04:12 PM
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weather_boy2010
post Jun 20 2017, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jun 16 2017, 12:57 PM) *
Sometimes it has caught on to the pattern months out, sometimes it flip flops. It's hard to say, and would be better to just keep an eye on it than rely on what it depicts for the Winter in the Summer.


Gotta say, I normally don't care for the "below average" jazz as long as I have plentiful snow, because a persistently cold winter just doesn't do much for me. That said, after the last two non-winters, I'd gladly take even a slightly below average winter overall!
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Fire/Rescue
post Jun 21 2017, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 16 2017, 05:11 PM) *
NWS Makes big changes to Winter Weather products!

http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDDforWint...eformatting.pdf


[color="#000080"][b] [list]
[*]The Freezing Rain Advisory

Oh wow...now with regard to the (freezing rain advisory) this will as well no longer be used for areas such as mine, Baltimore?
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weather_boy2010
post Jun 21 2017, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jun 21 2017, 09:06 AM) *
Oh wow...now with regard to the (freezing rain advisory) this will as well no longer be used for areas such as mine, Baltimore?


It is my understanding that the lake effect snow watch is the only one being discontinued at particular offices, everything else is being discontinued at all offices.
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grace
post Jun 21 2017, 08:28 PM
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Way to early, but my gut says this winter has some at least average potential. It's my "gut"...so, ya know smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2017, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 21 2017, 09:28 PM) *
Way to early, but my gut says this winter has some at least average potential. It's my "gut"...so, ya know smile.gif

Maybe. The one thing the models are consistent on is the weak +PDO (CFS) or -PDO (JAMSTEC). Not much help from that other than allowing for the PNA to be less positive which could allow for some western troughs that could end up producing massive winter storms in the east.

I'm banking on a neutral ENSO with the PDO to be determined.

JAMSTEC has a definitive -PDO with a weak Nino, which could make an interesting and unique winter. The -PDO/weak Nino combo would create a raging STJ which truly could make or break the winter. ENSO and AO/NAO would become very important.

CFS has cold-neutral ENSO with a neutral or slightly positive PDO.

So both of those models have mixed ENSO/PDO signals (in other words, ENSO doesn't match with the expected PDO phase)... so this could be an interesting winter, weather-wise.

This winter could be riddled with severe storms, too. Neutral ENSOs have been shown to be correlated with the most active tornadic winters, and with -PDO being strongly correlated with -PNA, one can deduce a -PDO would not hurt the tornado count.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/cook/enso-mwr.pdf

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 21 2017, 09:46 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 22 2017, 07:14 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jun 21 2017, 10:06 AM) *
Oh wow...now with regard to the (freezing rain advisory) this will as well no longer be used for areas such as mine, Baltimore?

I think eliminating the freezing rain advisory is a big mistake, I just keep on flashing back to that video last winter of the tanker going off the bridge in Baltimore because the bridge was iced over, main roads were fine. People discount winter weather advisories they see them as small, minuet inconveniences, but when you through the word "freezing rain" whether its a small amount or large, it gets drivers attention.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 22 2017, 09:36 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jun 21 2017, 10:06 AM) *
Oh wow...now with regard to the (freezing rain advisory) this will as well no longer be used for areas such as mine, Baltimore?



QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jun 21 2017, 08:02 PM) *
It is my understanding that the lake effect snow watch is the only one being discontinued at particular offices, everything else is being discontinued at all offices.


Yup, frz rain advsry gone for everyone.


QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 22 2017, 08:14 AM) *
I think eliminating the freezing rain advisory is a big mistake,


I agree. Seeing a "Winter Weather Advisory" instead might get blown off as light snow and some might not click the alert to see its actually for ice. Seeing freezing rain in the alert title gives more sense of concern.
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NewEnglander
post Jun 22 2017, 11:02 AM
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If the esno will be neutral in the negatives for JFM here is a blend of some of those years. Two -0.3 in here.

I saw an enso graph and it looks neutral to me in the low negatives
Attached File(s)
Attached File  winter.jpg ( 26.67K ) Number of downloads: 6
 
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conifer1
post Jun 24 2017, 06:45 AM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 22 2017, 11:02 AM) *
If the esno will be neutral in the negatives for JFM here is a blend of some of those years. Two -0.3 in here.

I saw an enso graph and it looks neutral to me in the low negatives


Those were some heavy-hitting Winters in the TN Valley. Winter of 1960 stands as the highest seasonal snowfall - 38.5" - allot for us; while the Winter of 1963 still stands as one of the coldest in Nashville's history...

January 23 - 1963 - The strongest cold front in mid state history brings heavy snow and an unprecedented drop in temperature. Nashville receives 6.2" of snow. In addition, the high temperature reaches 48 degrees, but plummets to -13 degrees by midnight, for a range of 61 degrees. This is the greatest daily range of temperatures in Nashville's history.

January 24 - 1963 - Temperature at Kingston Springs drops to -30 degrees, which is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Middle Tennessee, and comes within 2 degrees of tying the all-time record low for Tennessee (Mountain City, 12/30/1917). Other record lows include Clarksville (-17), Dover (-24), Lafayette (-20), Linden (-18), Portland (-19), Springfield (-18), and Waverly (-26). In fact, Waverly sees its temperature drop by 80 degrees with the passage of the strongest cold front in mid state history. Five inches of snow accompany the dramatic change in temperature. The Duck River freezes solid from bank to bank for the first time since 1898. Harbors along the Tennessee River also freeze. It is considered the worst winter weather since the 1951 ice storm.

http://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar


--------------------
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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NorEaster07
post Jun 24 2017, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 22 2017, 12:02 PM) *
If the esno will be neutral in the negatives for JFM here is a blend of some of those years. Two -0.3 in here.

I saw an enso graph and it looks neutral to me in the low negatives


Aside from 2017 being the warm one, that looks like some cherries were used.

What happened to these neutral years:

1959
1961
1966
1978
1980
1981
1985
1989
1990
1992
1993
1996
2001
2003
2005
2008
2012
2013
2014

?
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MaineJay
post Jun 24 2017, 08:29 AM
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Quick and dirty analogs here. I wanted neutrall-warm ENSO during low solar, but had to settle on some weak Nińos. This is just speculative to get started in the discussion.

Years I came up with are 1963, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2003, 2004, 2006. I am being very lenient with the years so I can understand folks disagreeing with some or all.

SSTs for these years looks like weak "modoki"-like El Nińo with a +PDO to me.

Attached File  6BtetIFE6m__1_.png ( 46.87K ) Number of downloads: 2


H5 Patten looks like a somewhat -NAO, I can buy this with solar likely being near zero.

Attached File  OVVxchRiIW.png ( 44.5K ) Number of downloads: 1



Yielding a vet dry Pac NW, and also fairly dry over Tennessee and Kentucky, actually pretty dry CONUS-wide.

Attached File  cd2604_6000_1526_e9_c462_5492_4de6_f3a2.174.7.9.14.prcp.png ( 1.16MB ) Number of downloads: 3


And temps look warm over the front range of the Rockies and northern high plains.

Attached File  cd2604_6000_1526_e9_c462_5492_4de6_f3a2.174.7.10.30.prcp.png ( 1.16MB ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 24 2017, 08:30 AM


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NewEnglander
post Jun 24 2017, 12:13 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 24 2017, 08:26 AM) *
Aside from 2017 being the warm one, that looks like some cherries were used.

What happened to these neutral years:

1959
1961
1966
1978
1980
1981
1985
1989
1990
1992
1993
1996
2001
2003
2005
2008
2012
2013
2014

?


I used JFM that was in low negatives, I didn't use years with -.4 and -.5
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NewEnglander
post Jun 24 2017, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 24 2017, 09:29 AM) *
Quick and dirty analogs here. I wanted neutrall-warm ENSO during low solar, but had to settle on some weak Nińos. This is just speculative to get started in the discussion.

Years I came up with are 1963, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2003, 2004, 2006. I am being very lenient with the years so I can understand folks disagreeing with some or all.

SSTs for these years looks like weak "modoki"-like El Nińo with a +PDO to me.

Attached File  6BtetIFE6m__1_.png ( 46.87K ) Number of downloads: 2


H5 Patten looks like a somewhat -NAO, I can buy this with solar likely being near zero.

Attached File  OVVxchRiIW.png ( 44.5K ) Number of downloads: 1

Yielding a vet dry Pac NW, and also fairly dry over Tennessee and Kentucky, actually pretty dry CONUS-wide.

Attached File  cd2604_6000_1526_e9_c462_5492_4de6_f3a2.174.7.9.14.prcp.png ( 1.16MB ) Number of downloads: 3


And temps look warm over the front range of the Rockies and northern high plains.

Attached File  cd2604_6000_1526_e9_c462_5492_4de6_f3a2.174.7.10.30.prcp.png ( 1.16MB ) Number of downloads: 1


I did a test. That map's "precip" does not include snow. I had avg winter for precip on the map but my snowfall totals were above avg or I was below avg precip on the map but my snow total was above avg.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 25 2017, 07:24 AM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 24 2017, 01:13 PM) *
I used JFM that was in low negatives, I didn't use years with -.4 and -.5


Ahh, got it, thanks.

QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 24 2017, 01:15 PM) *
I did a test. That map's "precip" does not include snow. I had avg winter for precip on the map but my snowfall totals were above avg or I was below avg precip on the map but my snow total was above avg.


Which map are you referring to? The blended one? Interesting mention though but believe it or not, above normal snowfall doesn't mean above normal precip. 12 inches of snow can be above normal for January but it also could mean 1" of precip which is below normal. You know? So maps should be including snowfall melted down.

Example:
Bridgeport Winter 2016-17 got 41" of snow which is 13" above normal.
Precip for D-J-F-M was only 12.96" (including the snow) which was 1 inch "below" normal

Not including March the precip was more below normal while the snow was still above normal.
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Fire/Rescue
post Jun 26 2017, 07:49 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 22 2017, 08:14 AM) *
I think eliminating the freezing rain advisory is a big mistake, I just keep on flashing back to that video last winter of the tanker going off the bridge in Baltimore because the bridge was iced over, main roads were fine. People discount winter weather advisories they see them as small, minuet inconveniences, but when you through the word "freezing rain" whether its a small amount or large, it gets drivers attention.

Much agreed man, HUGE mistake on there part!
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Southern Missour...
post Jun 27 2017, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jun 26 2017, 07:49 AM) *
Much agreed man, HUGE mistake on there part!


Also agree
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