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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
NorEaster07
post Oct 11 2017, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(Stefanos Chrysochoidis @ Oct 11 2017, 01:43 PM) *
Ty for the doc. Can't find Eurasia graph though. Found antarctic Arctic ice extent etc...but not Eurasia. unsure.gif At the bottom i clicked snow cover. I'm close...
EDIT : Got it!! Ty!
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/s...nt_monitor.html


Thanks!

Here's another look from Dr Cohen

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/918088306134577152

Looks like only 2014 and 2012 were ahead of this year at this point in time.

Attached File  Snow8.jpg ( 78.61K ) Number of downloads: 2

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NorEaster07
post Oct 11 2017, 02:01 PM
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Dr. Cohen Twitter


Couple Tid Bits from his latest write up... So much good stuff, no idea what to paste.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climat...tic-oscillation

QUOTE
"Above normal snow cover favors a strengthened Siberian high and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter with cold temperatures across the continents of the NH."

"The topic remains controversial but I believe that low Arctic sea ice favors increased severe winter weather across the mid-latitude continents of the NH."

"My, along with my colleagues and others, research has shown that extensive Siberian snow cover in the fall favors a trough across East Asia with a ridge to the west near the Urals. The atmospheric circulation pattern favors more active poleward heat flux, a weaker PV and cold temperatures across the NH. It is very early in the snow season but recent falls have been snowy across Siberia and therefore I do expect another upcoming snowy fall across Siberia. "


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NorEaster07
post Oct 11 2017, 03:39 PM
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How about the Persimmon? Better than Farmers Almanac? Lol tongue.gif

This one is for DC area this year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news...-winter-in-d-c/

QUOTE
According to weather folklore, the pattern inside persimmon seeds can give you a good idea of what the upcoming winter will be like.

Weather folklore says that a spoon pattern inside persimmon seeds indicates there will be lots of snow to shovel, a knife pattern indicates the winter will be cold and a fork pattern indicates the winter will be mild, with good eating.

After three tests, I found nine spoons, five knives, and three forks found by slicing open the seeds. The spoons were more numerous in the tests and thus folklore tells us that a snowy winter is ahead




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Southern Missour...
post Oct 11 2017, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 11 2017, 12:30 PM) *
I like the location. I like the height of the ash. I like the timing. Now I have to find out what kind of ash and how long it erupted that high for.

Big Volcano Eruption from Sheveluch volcano in Russia. Ash up to 10.4 km (34,000 feet)

https://watchers.news/2017/10/11/sheveluch-...ption-kamchatka





Impressive!!! (And article says they expect it to eventually reach 49000 feet. Wow! From what I've studied, it takes a volcanic eruption to reach at least 40000 feet to have possible longer term impacts. I know it also depends how long and how much sulfar and ash get into atmosphere.

This post has been edited by Southern Missouri Snow Fan: Oct 11 2017, 07:22 PM
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NorEaster07
post Oct 11 2017, 06:47 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Oct 11 2017, 07:36 PM) *
Impressive!!! From what I've studied, it takes a volcanic eruption at least 4 to 5 miles to impact winter and this at roughly 7 miles should suffice to at least make some minor impact. How much though and when??


Which way are the winds blowing up there. If they are east to west I doubt we'll see any affects in Alaska or North America.

Did you see this?

Scientists thought Yellowstone volcano would show signs centuries before erupting. Turns out it'll just be decades

https://nytimes.com/2017/10/10/science/yell...o-eruption.html

Attached File  Screenshot_20171011_194617.png ( 1.6MB ) Number of downloads: 1

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Southern Missour...
post Oct 11 2017, 07:43 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 11 2017, 06:47 PM) *
Which way are the winds blowing up there. If they are east to west I doubt we'll see any affects in Alaska or North America.

Did you see this?

Scientists thought Yellowstone volcano would show signs centuries before erupting. Turns out it'll just be decades

https://nytimes.com/2017/10/10/science/yell...o-eruption.html

Attached File  Screenshot_20171011_194617.png ( 1.6MB ) Number of downloads: 1


Not sure. I edited my last post btw after you quoted it . Some info needed adjusted .
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 11 2017, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(Stefanos Chrysochoidis @ Oct 11 2017, 11:36 AM) *
Is this free? Can't find it on .ncdc.noaa.gov. Can you provide me a link please? It updates daily?
Thanks and greetings from Europe(Greece)

Greece! Sweet! Quite the Greek username too.

Yup, it updates daily.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/s...tent_plots.html

Take care


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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Southern Missour...
post Oct 11 2017, 09:13 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 11 2017, 06:47 PM) *
Which way are the winds blowing up there. If they are east to west I doubt we'll see any affects in Alaska or North America.

Did you see this?

Scientists thought Yellowstone volcano would show signs centuries before erupting. Turns out it'll just be decades

https://nytimes.com/2017/10/10/science/yell...o-eruption.html

Attached File  Screenshot_20171011_194617.png ( 1.6MB ) Number of downloads: 1


Not sure. I edited my last post btw after you quoted it . Some info needed adjusted .
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jdrenken
post Oct 11 2017, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 11 2017, 08:05 AM) *
Not sold on this winter being BN temperature wise for DJF anywhere east of the rockies, but AN on precip looks almost like a slam dunk for most of the Ohio valley, great lakes, and interior Northeast.


What do you base this off of? Saying "anywhere East of the Rockies" is a very large area.


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MaineJay
post Oct 12 2017, 05:07 AM
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The Canadians also track Eurasian snowcover.

Attached File  eu_sce.png ( 113.21K ) Number of downloads: 4


https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/snow/current


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Boomer
post Oct 12 2017, 06:55 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 11 2017, 09:19 PM) *
What do you base this off of? Saying "anywhere East of the Rockies" is a very large area.


I was a bit more broad than I really should have been. But the only place I expect to see BN anomalies are in the northern plains, based on the weak nina that is forming and the presence of the southeast ridge. Things could obviously change though. It's only october.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 08:13 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 11 2017, 11:19 PM) *
What do you base this off of? Saying "anywhere East of the Rockies" is a very large area.

May not be large enough:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Temperature_99_00.png ( 411.73K ) Number of downloads: 6
 


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 11 2017, 03:01 PM) *
Dr. Cohen Twitter
Couple Tid Bits from his latest write up... So much good stuff, no idea what to paste.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climat...tic-oscillation

It's great to see that he isn't making bold cold/snowy predictions for his backyard as he has for several years in a row.

This write up seems to be much more within the scope of what his research has shown regarding -AO. Still didn't get the sense that he's made the link between reduced arctic sea ice extent and increased Siberian snow cover (i.e. this will happen each winter for the foreseeable future). That's okay though, we'll see how the -AO prediction pans out.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Oct 12 2017, 09:09 AM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ILStormwatcher
post Oct 12 2017, 09:05 PM
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Japanese Model back to looking torchy for pretty much the entire northern Hemisphere. Keeps the heat and drought on flowing through much of the US through Summer 2018. That's a real show stopper.

This post has been edited by ILStormwatcher: Oct 12 2017, 09:05 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 12 2017, 09:06 PM
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New JAMSTEC





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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grace
post Oct 12 2017, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 12 2017, 09:06 PM) *
New JAMSTEC






I'll bet the farm Asia doesn't look like that.
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snowsux
post Oct 14 2017, 12:44 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 11 2017, 07:47 PM) *
Which way are the winds blowing up there. If they are east to west I doubt we'll see any affects in Alaska or North America.

Did you see this?

Scientists thought Yellowstone volcano would show signs centuries before erupting. Turns out it'll just be decades

https://nytimes.com/2017/10/10/science/yell...o-eruption.html

Attached File  Screenshot_20171011_194617.png ( 1.6MB ) Number of downloads: 1


I wish it would happen tomorrow.
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shaulov4
post Oct 14 2017, 01:19 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 11 2017, 07:47 PM) *
Which way are the winds blowing up there. If they are east to west I doubt we'll see any affects in Alaska or North America.

Did you see this?

Scientists thought Yellowstone volcano would show signs centuries before erupting. Turns out it'll just be decades

https://nytimes.com/2017/10/10/science/yell...o-eruption.html

Attached File  Screenshot_20171011_194617.png ( 1.6MB ) Number of downloads: 1


I must say as a geologist this article is very misinformative. Why does the media like to hype such nonsense?
I had 30 people calling me today thinking that we are all going to blow in ten years. rolleyes.gif For those who are concerned, this article just states that scientists now realize that on geologic time scale the eruption time for this or any super volcano can happen within decades of its eruption process not that it will happen in decades from now. This is shown by the quicker than previously thought rising magma. We will be fine period. tongue.gif enjoy your non magma filled day.

This post has been edited by shaulov4: Oct 14 2017, 01:22 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 14 2017, 03:02 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Oct 14 2017, 01:44 AM) *
I wish it would happen tomorrow.

laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Boomer
post Oct 14 2017, 09:31 AM
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Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif
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