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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
kpk33x
post Aug 4 2017, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE
QUOTE

2017 US fall forecast: Warmth to linger in Northeast; Conditions ripe for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee



By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather staff writer

August 03, 2017, 1:55:11 AM EDT

Summer warmth will linger into fall across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, areas farther south will remain alert for tropical hits long after summer has faded.

In the southern Plains, conditions will become ripe for severe weather, including possible tornado outbreaks.


2017 US fall forecast FINAL


Warmth to linger into fall across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic

As children head back to school and swimming pools are closed down for autumn, warm air will linger across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

“That doesn’t mean it’s going to be exceptionally warm, but we do feel [temperatures are] going to run above normal,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

However, rainfall will help to hold back extreme heat.

It’s too soon to tell how these factors may affect the vibrancy of the region’s foliage, but windstorms could prevent fall leaves from hanging around for too long, Pastelok said.

Late-season severe weather will threaten to kick in from Albany toward New York City and northern New Jersey.












2017 US fall forecast


h














Southeast to remain vulnerable to tropical hits

Though the Southeast had an easy start to the hurricane season in 2017, a few tropical hits may threaten to spoil the first half of fall.

“We think that the areas that are more vulnerable this year are still the Gulf Coast and along the Carolina coast,” Pastelok said.

In addition to tropical threats, frequent showers and thunderstorms could lead to flooding, including in areas which had drought last year, such as northern Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee.

Humidity will remain high across the region with few cooldowns predicted until late in the season.

Temperatures to bounce up and down in Midwest, northern Plains

Temperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with cooler air.

“You may be mild for a period, and the next week you could be cooled down for a week. I think that’s the kind of flavor that we’re looking at in the fall coming up,” Pastelok said.

This year, however, forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow, arriving as soon as October.

“It’s always a tough call when you’re going to see that first snowfall in places like Chicago and Des Moines and St. Louis,” Pastelok said.

“Now, this fall may not be off that far from normal, but keep in mind it’s been very difficult to get cold weather in these places over the last several [fall seasons].”

A few bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November, he said.

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Conditions to be ripe for tornado outbreaks across the southern Plains

Severe weather will threaten the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as temperatures run above normal in the Gulf.

"If you get any of these mid- to late-season storms coming down in the northern Plains like we’re expecting, you’re going to get a clash of air masses [in the southern Plains]," Pastelok said.

This clash could cause severe weather to erupt, with the threat for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee, he said.

Showers and thunderstorms may also lead to episodes of flooding in the lower valley of Texas.

Warmth, wildfires to linger across California; Storms to frequent Northwest

Rampant wildfires in the West will calm quickest in regions farther north, as storms stream in from the Pacific.

"Last year, they got slammed in late fall and winter in the Northwest as far as heavy rain and heavy snow go," Pastelok said."

A similar weather pattern this fall likely means the region will once again receive abundant precipitation - though not as much as during the fall of 2016.

According to Pastelok, water temperatures off the West coast are not as high as last year and, therefore, won't foster very strong storms.

Rain and snow will at least total normal levels and have the potential to climb slightly above normal, forecasters predict.

From southwestern Montana down toward California, drier conditions and lingering warmth mean it may take most of fall for wildfires to calm down.
QUOTE

The above is AccuWeather's Fall 2017 outlook, issued 8/3/17. We don't have a thread for fall yet so I figured I may as well make 2 years in a row that I started it.

The warmth hanging on in the northeast - there have been several mild to warm falls in a row. When was the last time that we really had a chilly fall? 2015 and 2016 were warm here. 2014 featured a normal September, warm October, and chilly November to average out at normal. It was also the best fall foliage of the 3 autumns I have enjoyed here. 2013 had a near normal September, warm October, and a chilly enough November to pull the average down to a bit below normal. Really you have to go to 2008 to find a normal September and chilly October and November - none of the 3 months above normal.

ENSO - in a state of flux and there does not seem to be a good handle on where it is going right now. There's been a sharp cooldown, likely in reaction to a post I made about "we could probably rule out a strong Nina" laugh.gif

Another outlook I had seen stated that the Northeast would have an above normal fall tied to warmer than normal ocean temperatures, but there are other factors. AccuWeather believed that the southeast coast (Carolina & Gulf) run the greatest risk of a tropical strike, and if you follow JB he's mentioned maybe once or twice laugh.gif tongue.gif about a 2004 analog when there were several strikes due to a correlation with the August pattern that seems to be developing now. AW has a changeable Plains, and stormy south (which would be dependent upon cold air intrusions from the north) plus a warm west.

I don't have anything to add of my own volition except that my oak trees have been dropping prolific amounts of acorns since mid July, much more than the past 2 years and earlier than in 2014. laugh.gif If any indication from the summer's pattern, we can expect some changeable weather in the east with stormy interludes. This has been a summer of rainy intervals and more thunderstorms here than normal. Last fall was pretty mild and dry, which continued the summer pattern. Of course a tropical system or two would spice things up.

Any thoughts?

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Aug 4 2017, 09:01 AM


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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OSNW3
post Aug 5 2017, 05:19 PM
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It will evolve. Last one comes 8/31/17.

2mT SON

http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-t.html (3M)

PW SON

http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-pw.html (3M)

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Aug 5 2017, 05:21 PM


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NorEaster07
post Aug 7 2017, 08:09 PM
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https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/894725351569448960

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MaineJay
post Aug 8 2017, 03:35 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 5 2017, 06:19 PM) *
It will evolve. Last one comes 8/31/17.

2mT SON

http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-t.html (3M)

PW SON

http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-pw.html (3M)


Certainly not trying to expand your workload, but I was wondering how your method does with equatorial 850mb u-wind anomalies. Would be interesting from an ENSO perspective, and maybe even sussing out MJO teens.

Thanks for all your contributions. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Aug 8 2017, 06:54 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 8 2017, 03:35 AM) *
Certainly not trying to expand your workload, but I was wondering how your method does with equatorial 850mb u-wind anomalies. Would be interesting from an ENSO perspective, and maybe even sussing out MJO teens.

Thanks for all your contributions. smile.gif


Workload schmorkload, it's a hobby. I enjoy the interaction. The method is recurring atmospheric states, it certainly isn't mine, it is something that occurs and it traceable.

Evidence supports similar recurring nature in all levels of the atmosphere. Below is a comparison example of the 850mb u-wind and h5 frequencies.


https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/890942268173148164

I outlined a higher frequency in cyan and a lower frequency in black.


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snow4ever
post Aug 8 2017, 07:46 AM
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This a.m. .....Dusting of snow about 13k ft and up smile.gif Fairplay, CO
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 10 2017, 09:39 PM
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CFS monthly is garbage but wanted to share this epic flip flop fall pattern. Crazy cold/flu season haha






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 10 2017, 09:43 PM


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- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
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Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
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bingobobbo
post Aug 10 2017, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 10 2017, 10:39 PM) *
CFS monthly is garbage but wanted to share this epic flip flop fall pattern. Crazy cold/flu season haha







This makes me think of 2013--we in Binghamton, NY had our coolest September of the last decade in 2013, followed by our second warmest October of the past 10 years--and then our coldest November since 1997. December was--by a very small margin--milder than average. BTW, this month is reminding me of August 2013 (but a little less chilly).


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grace
post Aug 11 2017, 07:49 AM
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Anyone know what's up with JAMSTEC webpage? It's been down for 2 days
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ILStormwatcher
post Aug 11 2017, 09:17 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 10 2017, 10:21 PM) *
This makes me think of 2013--we in Binghamton, NY had our coolest September of the last decade in 2013, followed by our second warmest October of the past 10 years--and then our coldest November since 1997. December was--by a very small margin--milder than average. BTW, this month is reminding me of August 2013 (but a little less chilly).


October and December could be epic autumn severe weather months and good tornado weather for the Mississippi River valley with that sort of upper level pattern particularly October, I mean look at that negative NAO which isn't present in December. November shows some characteristics of November 2013 but likely less extreme. Nevertheless the upcoming Autumn likely won't be as boring as the last, time will tell however.
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grace
post Aug 11 2017, 11:32 PM
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Just to compare....

June 1-August 11, 2016


June 1-August 11, 2017
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kpk33x
post Aug 15 2017, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 10 2017, 10:39 PM) *
CFS monthly is garbage but wanted to share this epic flip flop fall pattern. Crazy cold/flu season haha






There is one precedent to the flip flop pattern, at least that I can remember in Maryland...but odds are we'd never see it again. That would be 1984-85. September 1984 was chilly, including the only day on record of BWI's max staying below 50F (EDIT - in September) on 9/29 with sleet reported in SE PA. October 1984 was above normal. November 1984 was a few degrees below normal, including traces of snow on 11/18 and 11/19 which is pretty early for Maryland, and then December 1984 was one of the warmest on record including several days of 70+ weather after Christmas. It continued into winter with January 1985 being chilly, mainly driven by a near record arctic outbreak around the 20th, and then the 2nd half of February got well above normal with 77F on the 24th. (That was the year I really got into weather, so I remember it vividly). EDIT - 1984 was a strange year...only year on record when February was warmer than March.

There are often changeable weather patterns - and without the strong ENSO influence I think we have a greater chance of seeing one this fall/winter - but it would be very rare for it to coincide with calendar months like that again. I'd have to discount that solution just based on odds alone.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Aug 15 2017, 03:52 PM


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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kpk33x
post Aug 19 2017, 10:43 AM
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I read an article online about fall foliage in New England (sorry, I can't remember who to give credit to in particular, but I am not quoting the article, just some generalities that appear elsewhere. It may be Yankee Magazine)

The lead up to this fall foliage season...
Above normal winter, but abundant precipitation. Plenty of snow (we had 140") that had 3 substantial meltdowns before restocking. That allowed plenty of water to absorb into the soil and basically knock out the 2015-16 drought...except in Eastern Maine
Spring stayed at least normal to above normal rainfall.
The summer has not had any extended periods of high heat nor any extended dry periods. August had been drying out but by no means was it droughty here. Then we got 1" of rain yesterday.
So those three seasons are all positives for a good foliage season.

What would need to happen now is to stay at least around normal rainfall, but to have a September that develops cool nights. Although this has been a mild summer, it is generally due to depressed maximums. Our lowest minimum in August so far is 49, not particularly chilly.

I lived here 3 years. 2014 was an excellent season because a cool summer had September get a couple cold snaps with frosty nights. 2015's season was decent but not quite as nice (and it was later) and 2016 was not all that great. But "not all that great" is still nice in New England.

Of course since this year might be the best since before I moved here, we are moving to Illinois at the end of the month.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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kpk33x
post Aug 19 2017, 10:46 AM
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By the way, we've already started to see a couple outer branches of the early changers (maples, birches) show a hint of color, even down near the valley. Up above the notch at 1700-1800 feet it is definitely noticeable. This is even earlier than last year when drought caused it to start early.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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OSNW3
post Aug 20 2017, 08:34 AM
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Warming up as September matures.


Cooling down as October approaches.


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OSNW3
post Aug 21 2017, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 5 2017, 05:19 PM) *
It will evolve. Last one comes 8/31/17.

2mT SON

http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-t.html (3M)


Not much change.



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grace
post Aug 21 2017, 04:46 PM
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Using BSR perma trough location being advertised by the models will correlate with a lot of troughing in the east. Why in the heck can't this be winter? Watch it all flip right before winter laugh.gif
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kpk33x
post Aug 21 2017, 08:48 PM
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Well, it would be interesting to see a chilly fall. It has been some time. Let's look at some locations to find out where SON period have been below normal. By that I define as none of the 3 are above normal, and at least 1 significantly below normal month or two below normal with a normal. I remind you that the "normal" temperatures are understated by 0.6-1.2F to the arithmetic mean

BWI: 2008. September was less than a degree above arithmetic normal, October and November both cooler than normal. Before that was 2000, when both September and November were below normal and October about normal...October that year was very dry but I saw flurries in the northern suburbs around the 10th. 2000 was really the last year where the mean of the 3 months was well below average.

North Conway, NH: 2008 which was a chilly fall here. September was -0.2, Oct was -1.3, Nov was -1.2. That's not even going into the arithmetic. Before that was 1997 which was a couple tenths cooler than 2008 most months.

Champaign, IL: 2014 sticks out like a sore thumb right away. Sept was -2.0, Oct was -1.1, Nov was -7.0. November was just 0.2 off the coldest on record there. 2012 had each month slightly below the mean. 1976 was a cold fall in that area. Sept was -2.8, Oct was -5.9, Nov was -7.2. It was the 9th coldest October and coldest November on records going back to 1888.

If I keep moving around and digging into local records I'll be national with the historical info laugh.gif but I'd rather not put my family through that...


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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bingobobbo
post Aug 21 2017, 11:50 PM
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As of this fall, it has been two decades since all three months have been cooler than average (1997)--we are overdue for an unusually cool autumn here.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 27 2017, 01:57 AM
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Okay winter of 2013-14 LOL



(before anyone makes any conclusions about this being similar to 2013-14, here's September 2013)



(so seeing this pattern at this time of year is, at the very least, meaningless)

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 27 2017, 02:03 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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