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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2017, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 12 2017, 12:56 PM) *
Eastern US probably should love seeing signals such as this - if only it would hold and persist. Well established W Ridge with a slightly positive tilt at crest, Rex block downstream, large trough in East.

A tall order to be sure, but somewhat encouraging to wintery weather lovers.


So close, yet so far (hr 336). I'll take my 1-2 day breaks meanwhile. :-(

GFS12z for Binghamton: Normal 850mb temps is about 5C there.

You can see why this weekend will be very warm.

You can see why Monday and Tuesday will be awesome! (For me anyway) Temps at 5000' drop to near or below freezing!

Then we warm back up to well above normal for next weekend..

Then GFS is still trolling for end of month..

Attached File  Data.jpg ( 599.86K ) Number of downloads: 2

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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2017, 03:59 PM
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BTW -- Low 60s and sunny. September is here! Oh wait... I mean... Nice to be just slightly above normal again. smh



This was the 2pm map. Very cool Satellite view. Love the sunny skies west of the Blue Ridge and the sharp cut offs. Almost looks like a big storm around.

Attached File  Map51.jpg ( 672.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  surface12.jpg ( 242.82K ) Number of downloads: 0

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Undertakerson
post Oct 12 2017, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 12 2017, 04:56 PM) *
So close, yet so far (hr 336). I'll take my 1-2 day breaks meanwhile. :-(

GFS12z for Binghamton: Normal 850mb temps is about 5C there.

You can see why this weekend will be very warm.

You can see why Monday and Tuesday will be awesome! (For me anyway) Temps at 5000' drop to near or below freezing!

Then we warm back up to well above normal for next weekend..

Then GFS is still trolling for end of month..

Attached File  Data.jpg ( 599.86K ) Number of downloads: 2

Yeah it is (so far). I do note that the GFS and EURO are relatively similar in re the upper air maps at the Hr240 mark - so GFS might not be in "sniffing glue" mode. If it does unfold, I have yet another episode of current weather that mimics that of the second half of 2011.

Those thoughts keep creeping back into my mind as I think about this winter. I've refrained from saying as much, so far - for fear that I would be, figuratively, set upon with stones, for doing so.

I detest the humidity we saw at the peak of the past uber warm spell and can only hope it's not to that extent. Otherwise, the longer I can keep from using my funds to pay the electric and propane bills, the better.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 14 2017, 05:42 AM
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grace
post Oct 12 2017, 05:38 PM
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PDO strentghened during September

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt
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NorEaster07
post Oct 12 2017, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 06:38 PM) *


Wow, just checked that this morning and update wasnt there. I was like "any day now". Was any hour. Lol. Thanks. Looked like it was heading for negatives
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jdrenken
post Oct 12 2017, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 05:38 PM) *


Make sure to pay attention to @weatherinthehud daily PDO research! wink.gif


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grace
post Oct 12 2017, 06:54 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 12 2017, 06:32 PM) *
Make sure to pay attention to @weatherinthehud daily PDO research! wink.gif



Thanks my friend! wink.gif
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grace
post Oct 12 2017, 06:59 PM
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Pattern currently being advertised by GEFS, EPS, & NAEFS Ensemble means in the 10-15 day period....its a beauty if it occurs. smile.gif

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Boomer
post Oct 12 2017, 08:09 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 05:59 PM) *
Pattern currently being advertised by GEFS, EPS, & NAEFS Ensemble means in the 10-15 day period....its a beauty if it occurs. smile.gif


I would agree but it's only October still. Useless cold if you ask me. Unless its a precursor for the winter pattern, then bring it on. cool.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 12 2017, 11:42 PM
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Strong Pacific jet from Korea to South Dakota. Alrighty then.



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MaineJay
post Oct 13 2017, 06:49 AM
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MJO coming to life?

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

Attached File  uwnd850.cfs.eqtr__1_.png ( 154.52K ) Number of downloads: 1



QUOTE
The recent lull in observed intraseasonal variability appears to have passed, with a coherent signal consistent with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerging over the Maritime Continent in recent days. This is reflected in a pronounced wavenumber-1 signature in the 200-hPa velocity potential field that indicates enhanced (suppressed) upper level divergence over the Eastern (Western) Hemisphere. There appears to be a limited outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) component to the MJO at present, with the envelope more closely tied to circulation signals in the zonal winds both at 850 and 200 hPa. Various ensemble suites show consistent strengthening of the MJO signal in Phase 4 over the Maritime Continent during Week-1, before propagation into Phase 5 by Week-2. The GEFS and CFS are slower to progress this signal and do not pass the Maritime Continent by the end of Week-2, while the ECMWF and Canadian forecasts enter the West Pacific (Phase 6). The ECMWF perspective is favored here, with a robust MJO envelope just making it into the West Pacific by the end of the forecast period.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...zards/index.php


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so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 13 2017, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 13 2017, 07:49 AM) *


I noticed that on a couple of different sites that should be interesting as that will surely not help nina conditions withstand if that is the case. Also with PDO still not dropping into negative yet makes you wonder where we go from here.


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NorEaster07
post Oct 13 2017, 02:34 PM
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Tomorrow... Warm...

Attached File  Map57.jpg ( 513.45K ) Number of downloads: 0



Sunday... Summer Like? Aren't we still in Summer? I don't get it.

Attached File  Map56.jpg ( 464.96K ) Number of downloads: 0



but wait...................there's more........ Next weekend

Attached File  Euro2.jpg ( 288.66K ) Number of downloads: 5
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grace
post Oct 13 2017, 03:21 PM
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As the chip, chip cool down process gets underway around day 8 there are mixed signals days 10-15. Ensembles suggest it's a pattern that holds for a few days, not a quick hitter. If that's the case then very interesting. Low retrogrades to bering sea, which also would indicate another trough 17-21 days from the trough in days 10-15 per BAR.

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...101312&fh=6

We have a typhoon recurve potential & MOJO wave leading the way in this process.

Models do NOT do well in these transitional patterns, so while ensemble signal is strong it's hard to bite just yet.

This post has been edited by grace: Oct 13 2017, 03:23 PM
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Boomer
post Oct 13 2017, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 13 2017, 02:21 PM) *
As the chip, chip cool down process gets underway around day 8 there are mixed signals days 10-15. Ensembles suggest it's a pattern that holds for a few days, not a quick hitter. If that's the case then very interesting. Low retrogrades to bering sea, which also would indicate another trough 17-21 days from the trough in days 10-15 per BAR.

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...101312&fh=6

We have a typhoon recurve potential & MOJO wave leading the way in this process.

Models do NOT do well in these transitional patterns, so while ensemble signal is strong it's hard to bite just yet.


Hitting the nail on the head here. We haven't had a strong MJO in many months now. Additionally models do terribly with recurving typhoons. They tend to amplify the pattern and usually cause wave breaking as well, ushering in a new regime. Time will tell. Things always get so much more active as winter rolls around. Certainly fall and winter are my favorite times meteorologically, as the patterns usually become very active like I mentioned.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 13 2017, 05:27 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Oct 13 2017, 09:33 AM) *
I noticed that on a couple of different sites that should be interesting as that will surely not help nina conditions withstand if that is the case. Also with PDO still not dropping into negative yet makes you wonder where we go from here.

Patience...



And this should help



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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
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idecline
post Oct 13 2017, 07:32 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 05:38 PM) *

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 12 2017, 11:42 PM) *
Strong Pacific jet from Korea to South Dakota. Alrighty then.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2017, 05:27 PM) *
Patience...


And this should help


...check that jet...Wow! ...looks like two troughs into the West before the end of October...

...seems like the PDO+ is "not dead yet" as many have 'preconceived'... dry.gif ...and the Pacific jet stream is starting to roar as it did last fall...could it be that observation of trends is more significant than all of these 'acronyms' that are only 'representative' of what is really occurring and might occur in the future???

...it still seems that this La Nina mode may be at it's maximum...with neutral conditions ahead, a PDO+, and a very strong Pacific jet...can anyone say 2016-2017 similarity (for the West Coast)...with storms just a bit further north with a little less tropical influence...the PDO trends often last for many, many years...thus the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation"...major changes do not occur overnight or even in a week or two...IMHO unsure.gif huh.gif wink.gif

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...again these are idee's non-certified attempts at reminding 'Mets and aspiring mets' that the weather is free for anyone to enjoy, talk about, and attempt to predict...there is no corner on the market or should there be...poor attempts at prognostication come from professionals and amateurs alike...the internet has only given some a place to disseminate mis-information about all subjects...whether or weather... anyone can post info that can potentially be misleading or even harmful to others...


idee rant #22, 917 is above...


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KDPPenmen
post Oct 13 2017, 09:27 PM
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Henry Margusity saying that NAO going negative!

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ValpoSnow
post Oct 13 2017, 09:52 PM
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jdrenken
post Oct 14 2017, 12:01 AM
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QUOTE(KDPPenmen @ Oct 13 2017, 09:27 PM) *
Henry Margusity saying that NAO going negative!



We've known about the MJO/NAO lag for almost 10 years...officially of course.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2515.1

QUOTE
. A two-way interaction between the NAO and the
MJO is evident. A negative NAO leads phases 2 and 3
of the MJO by 3;5 pentads, whereas a positive NAO
precedes phases 6 and 7 by 2;5 pentads. On the other
hand, when the MJO leads the NAO, significant positive
NAOs are found for phases 2–4, and negative
NAOs for phases 6–8, indicating a significant influence
of the tropical MJO on the extratropical NAO variability.
On average, the NAO index is positive (negative)
5–15 days after the MJO is detected in phases 2–4
(phases 6–8). The magnitude of the composite NAO
index that is statistically significant at a 0.05 level ranges
from 0.25;0.41, implying that the amplitude of the
NAO associated with the MJO variability is about
25%;41% of its standard deviation in the extended
winter season.


Henry saying it's going negative is a Captain Obvious situation of course because anyone can see the chart you showed shows it.


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