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> Hurricane Nate, 10/7 2PM EDT - 90 MPH - 981MB - Movement: NNW @ 23MPH
Ron in Miami
post Oct 3 2017, 01:18 PM
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There's a low developing in the SW Caribbean which appears to be a different system then the one over Cuba/FL from last week. The NCH has activated 90L now:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Oct 3 2017, 09:57 PM
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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 01:32 PM
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12Z ECMWF is really focusing on the system that will arise from the Caribbean and then track into the GOMEX.

Looks like this one may be future Nate.


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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 01:39 PM
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As I stated in the Caribbean thread; clouds are gathering down there.

Rotation is already evident.



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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 01:49 PM
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This may be a decent threat for Louisiana, but actually for the greater GOMEX coast, at first the central and eastern coasts.


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risingriver
post Oct 3 2017, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 3 2017, 02:39 PM) *
As I stated in the Caribbean thread; clouds are gathering down there.

Rotation is already evident.



Looks to have some unfavorable upper level wind flows to work through to get into the Gulf, and no certainty that the track won't go up over land at some point, but given the heat potential in the waters in that part of the Atlantic Basin, there is plenty of energy available to fuel tropical development if it gets its act together.
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risingriver
post Oct 3 2017, 02:15 PM
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I must have just missed the Invest being declared when I went to the NHC page a little while ago.

We now have a floater covering this obvious circulation.

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idecline
post Oct 3 2017, 02:20 PM
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...appears to have 'shear' to the north...perhaps it will track N/NW over land and re-emerge on Pacific side...?

Attached Image

...with evidence of rotation and formation of 'tropical' features...this could still be a feature to be recognized in the GOM if can hang together and move more to the north before being pushed to the W/NW...???


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stretchct
post Oct 3 2017, 02:54 PM
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Is this the one that the 12z Euro goes in at 978mb around Panama City?


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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 3 2017, 02:54 PM) *
Is this the one that the 12z Euro goes in at 978mb around Panama City?



Yes indeed.

Itīs this one.

ECMWF has been showing this development but rather weak. The last two runs the model has showing a stronger storm, suggesting a possible hurricane.


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Weather4LA
post Oct 3 2017, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 3 2017, 01:49 PM) *
This may be a decent threat for Louisiana, but actually for the greater GOMEX coast, at first the central and eastern coasts.

I will be keeping an eye on this one for sure! Gulf of Mexico waters in the central GOM have been untouched by any hurricane so far. Irma was on the east end, and Harvey was on the west end of the Gulf.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 05:22 PM
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18Z GFS takes this system near New Orleans.


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DrewNola
post Oct 3 2017, 06:25 PM
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Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

This post has been edited by DrewNola: Oct 3 2017, 06:33 PM
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Weather4LA
post Oct 3 2017, 07:11 PM
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From the NWS New Orleans office:
Attached Image


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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risingriver
post Oct 3 2017, 08:56 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 3 2017, 06:22 PM) *
18Z GFS takes this system near New Orleans.


So did the 12z GFS. It could be consistently wrong, or it might be onto something this far out.
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 3 2017, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 3 2017, 09:56 PM) *
So did the 12z GFS. It could be consistently wrong, or it might be onto something this far out.


Something funky happened with those 2 runs this afternoon. I don't know if the data was corrupted or what, but it had the LP in the exact same spot on both runs. And that far out is highly unlikely..



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joseph507123
post Oct 4 2017, 04:08 AM
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uh...



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Undertakerson
post Oct 4 2017, 04:34 AM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Oct 4 2017, 05:08 AM) *
uh...


HMON has been absolutely horrid this season.


https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-...hurricane-irma/

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MaineJay
post Oct 4 2017, 05:31 AM
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Some decent circulation, and anytime the overnight convection holds strong, further organization could be in the offing.

Last 7 hours

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


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MaineJay
post Oct 4 2017, 06:03 AM
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Lots of ECMWF members make something out of this.

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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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TC1
post Oct 4 2017, 06:14 AM
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The 6z GFS is a rather interesting run...

(click)
Attached Image


Why have one low, when you can have two?
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