Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

19 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Hurricane Nate, 10/7 2PM EDT - 90 MPH - 981MB - Movement: NNW @ 23MPH
MD Blue Ridge
post Oct 4 2017, 06:20 AM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,235
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 4 2017, 05:34 AM) *
HMON has been absolutely horrid this season.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-...hurricane-irma/

[attachment=331512:aMODS.JPG]


Just means it's due. laugh.gif

Of course under that logic the cmc should have a great winter season.

Page topper boom!

Why don't people play poker in the jungle?

Too many cheetahs.

Earned it!

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Oct 4 2017, 06:22 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 4 2017, 06:29 AM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,000
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Oct 4 2017, 07:20 AM) *
Just means it's due. laugh.gif

Of course under that logic the cmc should have a great winter season.

Page topper boom!

Why don't people play poker in the jungle?

Too many cheetahs.

Earned it!



But cheetahs live in the grasslands. tongue.gif


I'll show myself out.


To keep it OT.

EPS close-up. It's a weak surface reflection, but it's the number of members being added that's important. It's concerning to see so many. Not paying attention to the strength yet, anytime something gets into the gulf, it's worrisome.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Oct 4 2017, 06:29 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 4 2017, 06:41 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,000
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Man, outflow looks pretty good. Maybe we see Nate today, dare I say?

Floater on it.

40 minutes GOES16

Attached Image


http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Oct 4 2017, 06:43 AM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,403
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Oct 4 2017, 07:20 AM) *
Just means it's due. laugh.gif

Of course under that logic the cmc should have a great winter season.

Page topper boom!

Why don't people play poker in the jungle?

Too many cheetahs.

Earned it!


Latest Hmon is like nahhhhh I was jk with that 904mb circus




--------------------
If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Oct 4 2017, 06:46 AM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,403
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





Hwrf is partly based on gfs so it's 0z placement is also very close to its 06z determination



--------------------
If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Oct 4 2017, 07:27 AM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,403
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





06z navy



Guidance isn't really all over the place. Gom coast be warned


--------------------
If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Oct 4 2017, 07:34 AM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,403
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





12z hurricane tracks




06z gefs





--------------------
If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 07:52 AM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,256
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 4 2017, 06:41 AM) *
Man, outflow looks pretty good. Maybe we see Nate today, dare I say?

Floater on it.

40 minutes GOES16

Attached Image
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider



Its possible. At least a depression may form today.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
DrewNola
post Oct 4 2017, 08:28 AM
Post #29




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 255
Joined: 1-September 11
From: New Orleans, Louisiana
Member No.: 25,994





NOLA here watching Intensely
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Oct 4 2017, 08:35 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 24,054
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 4 2017, 07:03 AM) *
Lots of ECMWF members make something out of this.

[attachment=331515:track.ee...l.single.png]


Much needed rainfall for the entire east coast. Many ensembles have the low going through the panhandle and then up the coast.


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weather4LA
post Oct 4 2017, 09:06 AM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 779
Joined: 8-February 10
From: Baton Rouge, LA
Member No.: 21,607





What I find so concerning is the fact that the waters between the storm and the Central Gulf Coast (assuming it takes a northerly/north-northwesterly path) are not only untouched and very warm, the oceanic heat content is among the highest in the Atlantic Basin. If the shear lessens some more, almost anything would be possible with the storm regarding strength before any landfall. We could have a surprise storm that the public wouldn't really pay attention to until it was too late.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
DrewNola
post Oct 4 2017, 09:09 AM
Post #32




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 255
Joined: 1-September 11
From: New Orleans, Louisiana
Member No.: 25,994





QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Oct 4 2017, 09:06 AM) *
What I find so concerning is the fact that the waters between the storm and the Central Gulf Coast (assuming it takes a northerly/north-northwesterly path) are not only untouched and very warm, the oceanic heat content is among the highest in the Atlantic Basin. If the shear lessens some more, almost anything would be possible with the storm regarding strength before any landfall. We could have a surprise storm that the public wouldn't really pay attention to until it was too late.



You are correct!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
DrewNola
post Oct 4 2017, 09:18 AM
Post #33




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 255
Joined: 1-September 11
From: New Orleans, Louisiana
Member No.: 25,994





Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weather4LA
post Oct 4 2017, 09:29 AM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 779
Joined: 8-February 10
From: Baton Rouge, LA
Member No.: 21,607





QUOTE(DrewNola @ Oct 4 2017, 09:18 AM) *
Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.

With the heat content of the waters of the western Caribbean so high, it wouldn't surpise me if we saw TS Nate by the 4PM update. Storms this year seem to have a penchant for rapid development. Hopefully this one sticks closer to Central America to offset that.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
DrewNola
post Oct 4 2017, 09:40 AM
Post #35




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 255
Joined: 1-September 11
From: New Orleans, Louisiana
Member No.: 25,994





QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Oct 4 2017, 09:29 AM) *
With the heat content of the waters of the western Caribbean so high, it wouldn't surpise me if we saw TS Nate by the 4PM update. Storms this year seem to have a penchant for rapid development. Hopefully this one sticks closer to Central America to offset that.



I agree, I think we will see RI
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weather4LA
post Oct 4 2017, 09:45 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 779
Joined: 8-February 10
From: Baton Rouge, LA
Member No.: 21,607





And we officialy have TD Sixteen:

Discussion from NHC
QUOTE
Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since
yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute
visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands
of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite
classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification
of the depression. A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to
the representation of the Florida Straits trough. The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras
tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend
, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system
for
the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
risingriver
post Oct 4 2017, 10:36 AM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,017
Joined: 5-September 08
From: Fredericksburg, VA
Member No.: 15,632





It would surprise me not at all to see a stronger storm than forecast if the center can spend most of its time over water. The energy is certainly there though I can't access the TCHP map from work for some reason.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 10:53 AM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,256
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





And again, we have NHC talking about rapid intensification:

QUOTE
Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone.
Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters,
although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Weather4LA
post Oct 4 2017, 10:57 AM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 779
Joined: 8-February 10
From: Baton Rouge, LA
Member No.: 21,607





GFS 12Z run shows the storm as a strong TS making landfall almost due south of Baton Rouge, near the town of Morgan City, early Sunday morning. GFS seems to be trending west over the course of the last several runs. I know it's still early, so we will see whether this trend continues and whether other models come into agreement.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
risingriver
post Oct 4 2017, 10:59 AM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,017
Joined: 5-September 08
From: Fredericksburg, VA
Member No.: 15,632





QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 4 2017, 11:53 AM) *
And again, we have NHC talking about rapid intensification:

Seems RI is the theme for the Atlantic hurricane season this year. We've seen major hurricanes come out of systems with a similar path before, though I won't mention names yet.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

19 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 16th October 2017 - 10:43 PM