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> Hurricane Nate, 10/7 2PM EDT - 90 MPH - 981MB - Movement: NNW @ 23MPH
stretchct
post Oct 4 2017, 11:01 AM
Post #41




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Total Wind Shear (200mb-925mb)

Now


78 hrs when in GOM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 11:01 AM
Post #42




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We must watch the low pressure wave/trof of low pressure tracking westward along the coast of Cuba towards the Florida strait.

The weaker it is, the better the chances for TD16, to avoid the Yucatan, or have limited interaction with it, and thus allow for a longer period over the water and this way maximizing the chances for RI.




--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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stretchct
post Oct 4 2017, 11:02 AM
Post #43




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Mid level shear
Now.


78 hrs


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Weather4LA
post Oct 4 2017, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 4 2017, 10:59 AM) *
Seems RI is the theme for the Atlantic hurricane season this year. We've seen major hurricanes come out of systems with a similar path before, though I won't mention names yet.

That's why it's a good thing that local mets in La tend to get concerned about any system that enters the GOM. Better to over prepare than be caught off guard.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 11:03 AM
Post #45




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 4 2017, 11:01 AM) *
Total Wind Shear (200mb-925mb)

Now


78 hrs when in GOM


Yea, sheer becomes more favorable, as NHC mentions.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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risingriver
post Oct 4 2017, 11:06 AM
Post #46




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Possibility of impacts in mid Atlantic already making the long term Sterling discussion.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A boundary to our north will continue to lift away from the area
Saturday as a warm front. High pressure will build over the
Atlantic during this time...and a southerly flow will usher in
unusually warm and humid conditions for this time of year. Max
temps will be well into the 80s for many locations.

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain over the
Atlantic Saturday night through Tuesday. A southerly flow will
continue to bring unusually warm and humid conditions.
However...tropical moisture will also move into the area
increasing the chance for showers. Low pressure or possibly
even the remnants of a tropical system may impact the area early
next week as well. Confidence in timing and strength of this
system is low...but it does appear that it will enhance the
chance for rainfall Monday and/or Tuesday. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for any information regarding the
possibility of a tropical system.
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stretchct
post Oct 4 2017, 11:14 AM
Post #47




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SSTs
Anomaly


Current temps


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Oct 4 2017, 11:20 AM
Post #48




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Not sure if this really helps, but based on the models previously posted, this storm will be moving faster than the others we've come to known. If it interacts with Yucatan and weakens, it may not have more than 36 hours to strengthen. Granted, we've seen that happen often this year, but while moving 15-18mph or faster?


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Weather4LA
post Oct 4 2017, 11:23 AM
Post #49




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From: Baton Rouge, LA
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 4 2017, 11:20 AM) *
Not sure if this really helps, but based on the models previously posted, this storm will be moving faster than the others we've come to known. If it interacts with Yucatan and weakens, it may not have more than 36 hours to strengthen. Granted, we've seen that happen often this year, but while moving 15-18mph or faster?

That may be why GFS is showing a TS making landfall as opposed to a major 'cane on the 12z run. If it moves fast enough from interaction between the trough to its northwest and the WAR, the northern gulf coast may be spared a heavy hit.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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risingriver
post Oct 4 2017, 11:25 AM
Post #50




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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Oct 4 2017, 12:23 PM) *
That may be why GFS is showing a TS making landfall as opposed to a major 'cane on the 12z run. If it moves fast enough from interaction between the trough to its northwest and the WAR, the northern gulf coast may be spared a heavy hit.


I'm sure residents of the Gulf Coast will take any advantage they can get.
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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 11:30 AM
Post #51




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 4 2017, 11:20 AM) *
Not sure if this really helps, but based on the models previously posted, this storm will be moving faster than the others we've come to known. If it interacts with Yucatan and weakens, it may not have more than 36 hours to strengthen. Granted, we've seen that happen often this year, but while moving 15-18mph or faster?



High movement speeds indeed hinder tropical cyclone organization and strengthening.

We will need to see how fast this system actually moves.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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SNAEDIS
post Oct 4 2017, 12:21 PM
Post #52




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Ukie @hr96 has a ~982 pretty much over Pensacola FL



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SnAEdes
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dsnowchaser
post Oct 4 2017, 12:39 PM
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QUOTE(SNAEDIS @ Oct 4 2017, 12:21 PM) *
Ukie @hr96 has a ~982 pretty much over Pensacola FL


Meteocentre not updating Ukie...do you have images and links for hour 96 and 120? Thanks


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Northwest of Baltimore, MD
2 miles South of Mason Dixon Line



Winter 2014/15 total (47.7")
Winter 2015/16 total (40")



( Total snowfall 2014/15 - (47.7")
( first accum snow) Nov 14th - .2"
( biggest to date) Jan.18th (4"),Jan 26th(4.5") Feb. 16th 3.25
Feb. 21st (9"), Mar. 5th ( 10.75"),Mar.20th (3.2")
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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 01:03 PM
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12Z ECMWF:


Hour 48:
Attached Image



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SNAEDIS
post Oct 4 2017, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(dsnowchaser @ Oct 4 2017, 01:39 PM) *
Meteocentre not updating Ukie...do you have images and links for hour 96 and 120? Thanks

Here is 96-108


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


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SnAEdes
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SNAEDIS
post Oct 4 2017, 01:17 PM
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Euro appears to keep it off the Yukatan and over water, barely.

Slower and further east at 96



This post has been edited by SNAEDIS: Oct 4 2017, 01:19 PM


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SnAEdes
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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 01:22 PM
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72:

Attached Image


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 01:23 PM
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96:

Attached Image


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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SNAEDIS
post Oct 4 2017, 01:26 PM
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Euro looks to make landfall just west of Jax.



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SnAEdes
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Phased Vort
post Oct 4 2017, 01:27 PM
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Deeper than other models.

Looks like a 972mb cyclone making landfall in the pan-handle.


--------------------
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