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> Hurricane Ophelia, 10/9 5AM AST - 75 MPH - 990MB - Movement: E @ 3MPH
Phased Vort
post Oct 7 2017, 06:05 AM
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Another invest; 91L far out over the north central Atlantic.

QUOTE
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2017, LO, O, 2017100412, 9999999999, , 036, , , 8, METWATCH, , AL912017


QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
upgraded Hurricane Nate, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 650 miles
southwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next couple of days while the low drifts toward
the west or southwest. Thereafter the atmosphere is expected
to become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Landsea


Do we get Ophelia out of this one ?

Letīs monitor! So, stay tuned!


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Oct 7 2017, 01:37 PM
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91L is getting ready to get named it seems.

Itīs transitioning from a cold/subtropical core to a complete tropical warm core.


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redfish
post Oct 7 2017, 10:06 PM
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So what's going on with this thing? I see clear rotation but not much convection/moisture on satellite, and the GFS and HMON don't have it breaking 1000 mb before it disintegrates in a couple days. But I really doubt it's not going to do anything, based on the way this season's gone.
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Phased Vort
post Oct 8 2017, 10:50 AM
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QUOTE(redfish @ Oct 7 2017, 10:06 PM) *
So what's going on with this thing? I see clear rotation but not much convection/moisture on satellite, and the GFS and HMON don't have it breaking 1000 mb before it disintegrates in a couple days. But I really doubt it's not going to do anything, based on the way this season's gone.



I would say that NHC is not classifying this as a depression of tropical storm because of the total lack of a thunderstorm convection canopy covering the center. Itīs completely exposed.


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stretchct
post Oct 9 2017, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 8 2017, 11:50 AM) *
I would say that NHC is not classifying this as a depression of tropical storm because of the total lack of a thunderstorm convection canopy covering the center. Itīs completely exposed.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 39.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 39.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the east and
east-southeast is expected to occur tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


--------------------
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First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2017, 10:11 AM
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The tropical depression ascends to tropical storm Ophelia.

QUOTE
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 9
Location: 31.4°N 39.9°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


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Phased Vort
post Oct 9 2017, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 9 2017, 08:59 AM) *
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 39.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 39.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the east and
east-southeast is expected to occur tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.



Yep.

Just needed some persistent thunderstorm action.


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LUCC
post Oct 9 2017, 12:16 PM
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You're going the wrong way! laugh.gif

Attached Image


This post has been edited by LUCC: Oct 9 2017, 12:17 PM


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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TC1
post Oct 9 2017, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Oct 9 2017, 01:16 PM) *
You're going the wrong way! laugh.gif

Attached Image


SHHH!

Don't tell it that. Just let the dyslexic hurricane be wink.gif

This post has been edited by TC1: Oct 9 2017, 02:18 PM
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Qdeathstar
post Oct 9 2017, 06:20 PM
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I saw the EURO and it got me wondering what the strongest storm to hit ireland was. Cat 1 hurricane debbie in the 1960s i think.

Intredasting.


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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joseph507123
post Oct 10 2017, 05:47 AM
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The models have it striking Spain or Portugal as a hurricane. blink.gif


--------------------
2017-2018 Winter

Winter Storm Warnings: 0

Blizzard Warnings: 0

Windchill Warnings: 0

Largest snowfall: 0''

Seasonal snowfall: 0''

Coldest temperature: 32F

Coldest windchill: 30F
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Phased Vort
post Oct 10 2017, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Oct 10 2017, 05:47 AM) *
The models have it striking Spain or Portugal as a hurricane. blink.gif



This season is unique!!

Letīs observe Ophelia then!! rsrs


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Phased Vort
post Oct 11 2017, 01:56 PM
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As per NHC server, Ophelia is a hurricane.

I guess it should be updated on the next advisory.


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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Oct 11 2017, 02:45 PM
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latest GFS takes it towards Ireland as seemingly a tropical storm
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stxprowl
post Oct 11 2017, 03:45 PM
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That’s the 10th hurricane in a row.
Let’s break the record!? Go Atlantic go!
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.miamiherald....e177950476.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 10:31 AM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Oct 11 2017, 04:45 PM) *
That’s the 10th hurricane in a row.
Let’s break the record!? Go Atlantic go!
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.miamiherald....e177950476.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

Attached Image

Given the record was set/tied in the 19th century, it's likely that a couple tropical storms were missed in there. Thus, as far as I'm concerned this is a new record. We'll see if it continues.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Oct 12 2017, 10:32 AM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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stretchct
post Oct 12 2017, 03:44 PM
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Starting to look dangerous.

edit: dangerous indeed. 100mph winds now.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Oct 12 2017, 03:47 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Oct 12 2017, 03:46 PM
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NHC disco while I'm here...

CODE
WTNT42 KNHC 122037
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Ophelia's structure has continued to improve during the afternoon.
The eye of the hurricane has cleared and is surrounded by a ring of
cloud tops colder than -55 deg C. Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and the UW-CIMSS ADT have increased accordingly, and on that basis
the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Ophelia is
nearly stationary, which could cause the hurricane to stop
strengthening, or even weaken slightly during the next 12 to 24
hours due to upwelling effects. That said, the intensity guidance
is in good agreement that Ophelia will remain at hurricane strength
for the next 48 h while it remains in a fairly unstable, low-shear
environment. Beyond that time, extratropical transition will begin,
though baroclinic forcing will likely keep post-tropical Ophelia
near hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the UK. The
new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and
is generally close to the multi-model intensity consensus.

Although Ophelia is currently stationary, a mid-latitude trough
should cause it to begin moving toward the east-northeast within
about 24 hours. The cyclone will then accelerate on that heading in
the faster mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the trough, before
turning toward the northeast around day 3 as extratropical
transition occurs and the hurricane becomes entangled with the
southern extent of the trough. Confidence in the track forecast is
fairly high for the first 72 h, and all of the dynamical guidance is
tightly clustered through this period. The model spread increases
substantially at 96 h and beyond. As a post-tropical cyclone,
Ophelia will continue to interact with the southern extent of the
trough, and should turn toward the northeast as a result of this
interaction. However, the details of this turn vary greatly from
model to model. The new NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
toward the east at this time range, closer to the UKMET and ECMWF
models, as well as the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia south and east
of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout
the Azores by Sunday due to an approaching front. In addition, the
wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins
extratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stxprowl
post Oct 12 2017, 04:32 PM
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http://www.marine.ie/Home/site-area/data-s.../wave-forecasts
Attached Image

https://www.unitconverters.net/length/meters-to-yards.htm

http://magicseaweed.com/Inch-Strand-Surf-Report/1482/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes...4295%3Fmode=amp

This post has been edited by stxprowl: Oct 12 2017, 04:38 PM
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stxprowl
post Oct 13 2017, 10:39 AM
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So does the NHC put up watches or does Ireland's weather service do it? And will we see them on this map tomorrow?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?cone#contents
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This post has been edited by stxprowl: Oct 13 2017, 10:40 AM
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