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> October 9-11 Plains/MW/OV/GL Storms, Short-range forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 9 2017, 01:15 AM
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A western trough will be moving eastward bringing with it a non-negligible threat for strong/severe storms. SPC has a slight risk for Monday, marginal risk for Tuesday, and I'm sure they'll introduce a marginal risk for Wednesday.

For the setup in the OV... NAM has a slower and further south solution, GFS has a faster and further north solution.




GFS has unidrectional winds in the warm sector, while NAM has veered winds. IMO, NAM's solution makes more sense to me. Would definitely have to watch out for tornadoes with warm front-riding cells


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowlover2
post Oct 9 2017, 11:20 AM
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This is also the first named winter storm of the season. Winter Storm Aiden.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 9 2017, 09:11 PM
Post #3




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Sign of VBV in tomorrow's marginal risk area. Most likely will be a negligible tornado threat



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 03:33 PM
Post #4




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VBV verified. Possible exception is a supercell near St. Louis where VBV is a bit weaker, maybe even non-existent. The test of this will be how long this cell lasts. It wouldn't be a bad setup if it weren't for VBV.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 10 2017, 03:34 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 03:55 PM
Post #5




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More storms up in in this area are starting to rotate. The main supercell has been organized for the 35 minutes I've been watching it now, though now it's showing evidence that the RFD rushing forward.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 10 2017, 03:55 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 05:54 PM
Post #6




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Tornado warning northwest of Paducah. Didn't think this would happen today.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 10 2017, 05:56 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 06:20 PM
Post #7




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Tornado signature gone, but supercell looks as nasty as ever.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowlover2
post Oct 10 2017, 06:32 PM
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Sounds like there was possibly a touchdown at some point.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

ILC181-102328-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-171010T2330Z/
Union IL-
619 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

Trees have been reported down not far from Dongola.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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WeatherMonger
post Oct 10 2017, 07:45 PM
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I hope this wet pattern returns with some cold involved this winter.

After .01" for the entire month of September, we are approaching 4.5" so far in October.

Temps are horrible compared to average though. Not getting excited at all for the winter.

Almost ready to throw in the towel, writing is in the wall IMO
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 10 2017, 08:45 PM) *
I hope this wet pattern returns with some cold involved this winter.

After .01" for the entire month of September, we are approaching 4.5" so far in October.

Temps are horrible compared to average though. Not getting excited at all for the winter.

Almost ready to throw in the towel, writing is in the wall IMO

Obviously too early to throw the towel and I don't see this winter being the torch last winter was, but I don't see any reason to believe this'll be a persistently wintry winter.

Doesn't help that this October's Eurasian snowfall is going the way of last year, which allegedly helped make last winter a torch.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 10 2017, 09:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 10 2017, 09:25 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Wind damage report... Balcom hit especially hard. Hmm.

QUOTE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN BETWEEN ANNA AND DONGOLA. IN PARTICULAR...THE CITY OF BALCOM JUST OFF OF HIGHWAY 51.


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 10 2017, 06:54 PM) *
Tornado warning northwest of Paducah. Didn't think this would happen today.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 11 2017, 08:17 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Had some rain for about 20 mins today. No thunder unfortunately.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Boomer
post Oct 11 2017, 09:48 PM
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Cliche, off topic question, did you happen to know a Marshall from OU in the met program who graduated this past year?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 11 2017, 10:57 PM
Post #14




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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 11 2017, 10:48 PM) *
Cliche, off topic question, did you happen to know a Marshall from OU in the met program who graduated this past year?

Yes I do! Haha


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Boomer
post Oct 12 2017, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 11 2017, 09:57 PM) *
Yes I do! Haha


I've actually recently become good friends with him up at UAlbany. Him and I are in the same office and both working with Lance Bosart. I figured you might know him, haha
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 12 2017, 10:45 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 20,739
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 12 2017, 07:53 AM) *
I've actually recently become good friends with him up at UAlbany. Him and I are in the same office and both working with Lance Bosart. I figured you might know him, haha

That's sweet! Yeah, I took Climo with him last fall. Our program is smallish, so we tend to at least know of each other. Good to hear he's doing well up there


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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