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travis3000
Rank: F5 Superstorm
28 years old
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Alliston,Ontario
Born July-1-1989
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travis3000

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7 Dec 2017
This thread is for the clipper that runs are showing. I think it has potential to stall out and tap into some east coast energy. Could be the first widespread snowfall for Southern ON.

Too early for amounts but 5-15cm is likely based on some of the runs I've seen.

18z GFS Today:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_5.49.55_PM.jpg ( 467.57K ) Number of downloads: 15
12 Nov 2017
The second lake effect snow outbreak it poised to hit this coming weekend, only this time expect bigger squalls, a longer event, with higher accumulations. I will continue to monitor this event as we head through the week including any changes I see.

Right now I'm expecting this to be a NW to SE orientation, at times being a WNW to ESE orientation. Many areas will see snow, some will see very impressive amounts. While it's too soon to start issuing a city by city snowfall amount I'm going to go out on a lim and put out my initial map where I think the heaviest snows will fall.

Remember, the dates may change. There's a chance we won't see any major activity until into Sunday (19th) as seen on the CMC. The GFS is aggressive and shows a long duration major event. By Wednesday we will have a much better idea.

Attached File  Nov_18_20th_2017_Squalls.jpg ( 203.17K ) Number of downloads: 15


Areas in the high risk zone have a good chance at over 30CM IMO at this point. More to come this week....
30 Jan 2017
Im liking the Thursday Feb 2nd to Saturday Feb 4th timeframe for some pretty intense squalls. There looks to be ample cold air in place which will allow for some fairly intense bands to develop.

We've seen some bands of heavy flurries develop across most of SW, S, C Ontario Wednesday Feb 1st which has put down 2-10cm in many locations. These bands of flurries will consolidate into more classic snowsqualls as we head towards Thursday and into Friday.

Right now its looking like a WNW to ESE event, at times veering into a more NW flow.

Areas to be on alert for 30cm+

-Midland
-Orillia
-Bracebridge
-Gravenhurst
-Muskoka
-North Simcoe County
-Owen Sound
-Meaford
-Kincardine
-Sauble Beach
-Bruce Peninsula
-Grey County
-Flesherton


Attached File  Squalls_Feb_2nd_4th.jpg ( 234.6K ) Number of downloads: 8
16 Jan 2017
I'm creating a thread on this storm, as all the models are showing something for next week. Looks to move into SW Ontario on the 23rd and make its way east, the effects continuing to be felt into the 25th and 26th out east.

Models have been dancing around with tracks, and precipitation types.

Here's the 12z CMC model:

Jan 23rd morning
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png ( 158.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 172.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png ( 180.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


Heavy snow in Eastern Ontario by this point moving into Southern QB.
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png ( 181.08K ) Number of downloads: 0



Here's the 18z GFS run from tonight


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 162.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 181.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png ( 175.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png ( 170.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


As you can see this run of the GFS isn't as bullish for big snowfall out east, but potential remains.

Mostly rain for Southern Ontario at this point but potential is there for some mixtures especially over higher terrain.
28 Dec 2016
I am creating this thread to highlight the potential for heavy lake effect squalls, expected to develop Thursday evening and continue into early Saturday. Right now I am looking at a primarily NW event.

Here's my map


Attached File  LES_Dec_29_30th.png ( 359.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Right now it looks like the squalls will begin tomorrow early evening and strengthen overnight tomorrow. The bands will move around through Friday as winds will be oscillating but overall a primary NW flow, at times WNW off Huron and NNW off GB. However NW will be the primary direction.

This will take the heaviest Huron activity north of London in my opinion. I like the Kincardine down to Goderich corridor and in-land from there. Listowel down to Stratford will be dealing with squalls oscillating in and out of the area with areas closer to the lake getting hit hard (Wingham down through Mitchell and Exeter) where I feel 30-40cm is possible. London is a close call, the northeastern part of the city stands a better chance but from what I'm seeing the highest accumulations occur well north of the city. The actual city should not see anything significant.


Off Georgian Bay the highest accumulations will be felt from the Wasaga Beach to Barrie corridor and to the SW of that in areas like Angus, CFB Borden, New Lowell, Essa Township, Baxter, Cookstown/Innisfil, etc. Up to 40cm is possible in this region. Alliston will again be too SW for the heaviest accumulations, but stands a possibility of receiving 6-15cm if the squall can stall over this area. I think you'll see it cream areas just to the north and east, at times affecting the town. The east side of the town will likely fare better.
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Comments
futureweatherman...
Happy Birthday Travis... you need to start updating your blog though
29 Jul 2010 - 23:02

hey there..
want to know more about you... hope you wont mind..
I found you interesting..
10 Dec 2009 - 18:33
players1
hey travis i posted some pics in the febuary pattern disco for you. have a good day.
28 Jan 2009 - 12:16

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