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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
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Dayton, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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ClicheVortex2014

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16 Jun 2018
El Nino watch is in effect. CFS is showing a high-end weak/low-end moderate, JAMSTEC is showing a solid moderate. Both models show Nino 1+2 will be the coolest of the 4 regions. CFS focuses the Nino on 3.4, JAMSTEC on 3.

I wouldn't put much stock on either model right now. Give it a few months and see where we're at. But feel free to monitor them and also the subsurface.
22 May 2018
Yet another trough is going to dip into the west US and cut off from the jet stream. This'll allow for disturbances to run from the trough. There'll be strong to extreme instability in the Plains for at least a week. However, the mid-level winds are quite weak but nocturnal LLJ tries to make up for it.



There's a days on the GFS that shows a hole in EHI values which is co-located with upward vertical motion via vertical velocities... so that's likely an MCS.

But like I said... lots of instability, weak mid-level winds, medium to strong low-level winds east of the dryline. Uncertain if the low-level winds will help with storm organization. Might have a more concentrated/greater severe or tornado threat when the trough moves into the Plains. Further east, no credible sign of any focused severe threat... though days 9 and 10 look very interesting for the Mississippi valley. Until then, looks like the standard daily popup storms with a small microburst/hail threat.

15 May 2018
From one thread straight to another.

SPC has a day 3 and 4 slight risk out.

The "hole" of EHI south of the EHI maximum is some sort of massive storm or MCS.




Extreme SE NE




Along KY/IL border


Western Ohio
6 May 2018
Last night I was debating whether or not I should make a thread, decided to wait until tomorrow to wait and see what SPC and NAM says since there was some model disagreement.

SPC delineated a threat region


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Sun May 06 2018

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET models are in general agreement
for Wednesday, moving an upper-level trough into the mid Mississippi
Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough are forecast to be in
the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of
moderate instability may develop across the mid Mississippi Valley
by afternoon. This combined with 30 to 40 kt of deep-layer shear
should be enough for an isolated severe threat from parts of
Missouri into Illinois and western Kentucky where a 15 percent
contour has been added. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range
models move the upper-level trough eastward into the Northeast and
off the Atlantic Coast. The models suggest a front will be located
from the north-central U.S. into the Ohio Valley. This would be the
favored corridor for thunderstorm development each afternoon, along
which an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out. Any severe
threat would depend upon the timing of shortwave troughs and the
magnitude of destabilization.

...Saturday/Day 7 to Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the models suggest that an upper-level trough will be
located in the western U.S. with west to southwest mid-level flow
over the central and northeastern states. The ECMWF shows a corridor
of maximized low-level moisture from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the upper Ohio Valley while the GFS has the moist sector
further west. Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon along the northern edge of the moist sector where
mid-level flow is forecast to be stronger. The models vary
considerably on how far north the moist sector will be on Saturday.
On Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough across the Rockies
and maintain west to southwest mid-level flow from the Mississippi
Valley eastward. The models suggest a front could be located from
the southern Plains extending northeastward to the Ohio Valley.
Severe thunderstorms would be possible along the boundary where the
greatest instability develops Sunday afternoon. However, uncertainty
is considerable at this range in the forecast period.



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 6 2018, 03:16 AM) *
The May 9 system looks a lot like the April 3 system...


24 Apr 2018
Although SPC opted not to delineate a severe weather area due to large spread, I'm certain they recognize they'll be issuing some enhanced risks to start off May.

When you have a large warm sector with rich moisture and a western trough near the peak of tornado season, you're gonna have severe weather. Currently favoring the Plains, but wouldn't rule out the idea that GFS may be missing a OV/GL severe threat.

GFS has a significant severe threat on May 2 as a shortwave breaks off the western trough and takes a negative tilt into the heart of tornado alley. VBV is an issue on this run though







Last nights Euro has a bit of a different solution, this would likely be a 3+ day tornado outbreak... from the Plains to Arkansas and the Ohio/Mississippi valleys, then the cold front stalls out near the MO/AR border. Lee cyclogenesis begins and the warm front lifts north with even richer moisture than last time.



After the severe threat for the first 3 days of May, watch for the pattern to reload as is suggested by BSR. That will be my next post here
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14 Jun 2018 - 9:45


2 May 2018 - 16:50
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1 May 2018 - 19:21


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21 Mar 2018 - 17:56

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