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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
Athens, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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Local Time: Oct 19 2017, 01:57 PM
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My Content
9 Oct 2017
A western trough will be moving eastward bringing with it a non-negligible threat for strong/severe storms. SPC has a slight risk for Monday, marginal risk for Tuesday, and I'm sure they'll introduce a marginal risk for Wednesday.

For the setup in the OV... NAM has a slower and further south solution, GFS has a faster and further north solution.

GFS has unidrectional winds in the warm sector, while NAM has veered winds. IMO, NAM's solution makes more sense to me. Would definitely have to watch out for tornadoes with warm front-riding cells
1 Oct 2017
Starting to get more and more fall-like systems in the models. This one is interesting.

A strong system pushes through the Lakes on Saturday. Notice how, on the dew point image, the cold front is weakening and has almost turned into a warm front. Also notice the raging Pacific jet pushing into the Pacific NW. The stationary front implies southerly flow will be uninterrupted by the first system, and moisture advection will continue.

1 day later... BIG changes... especially for Illinois.


A negative thing about this setup, though, is that the central low is all the way up in the Lakes... so shear is kinda lacking. Especially since the jet stream stays out of the warm sector. The exception to this is up in Illinois where there's more of a balance between CAPE and shear.

I haven't made a severe weather thread since mid-August. Goes to show how the weather has been rolleyes.gif
25 Sep 2017
The jet stream has moved to Canada, leaving the Midwest high and dry to end Astronomical Summer and begin Astronomical Fall. Although a trough is going to drop into the Great Lakes, it's not forecast to bring much rain, if any, before the pattern reloads for October and the jet stream heads north yet again. This thread will cover the current warm/dry regime.

Here in Athens, it hasn't rained since September 14 when we got a whopping 0.14", and there's no chance for rain in the next 10 days. At this point, I want to see if we can go a month without rain. Already at 11 days with another 10 forecast, might as well.
11 Aug 2017
A potentially active period for severe weather looks to be setting up next week for the Midwest and Plains. A south-central US ridge attempts to set up, but embedded short waves originating from the Pacific rolls across the top of the ridge. This results in the potential for MCSs; possibly even discrete/semi-discrete supercells before transitioning into an MCS... similar to what we saw today.

11 Jul 2017
The current zonal flow will turn into a central US ridge. Dry heat (100-110+ degrees) will take over the Plains, while less hot/more humid conditions will be present to the east.

There are currently 80+ degree dew points in the corn belt, 100-110 degree heat index in the central Plains.

In the medium to long range, in addition to the central US ridge, there'll be a ++++NAO. Assuming it verifies, the stronger pressure gradient will result in a stronger jet stream along the north and northeast periphery of the ridge where hot and humid conditions will exist.

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