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> June 6-10 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1, 2, 3 Slight Risk
StormChaserCK19
post Jun 9 2011, 07:55 PM
Post #261




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QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB..NE KS...NRN MO...WRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 453...454...455...

VALID 100043Z - 100215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
453...454...455...CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEATHER WATCHES 453...454 AND
455 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL HAVE A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO
EXIST ESPECIALLY IN ERN KS...FAR SE NEB AND NRN MO WHERE THE TORNADO
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.

A CLUSTER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING IN ECNTRL KS ALONG AN
AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500
J/KG RANGE. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY
CLOSE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT ON MESOANALYSIS. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING...THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE.
WSR-88D VWPS IN ERN KS...SE NEB AND NW MO SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES IN THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY
OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
ALSO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS IS
SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS.

FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS WW 455...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS
ONGOING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WATCH IN NRN MO ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE HAVE A POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 455
OVER THE NEXT HOUR ENABLING THE WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EXPIRATION..

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2011


oh boy, as the sun is setting, not good..
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Gilbertfly
post Jun 9 2011, 08:38 PM
Post #262




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Not sure why Iowa wouldn't have a watch box. . .they are in the slight risk and have had multiple severe warnings. . .

ping pong and 60+ mph headed for Des Moines. . .

QUOTE
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
825 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

IAC015-049-099-153-169-181-100200-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-110610T0200Z/
WARREN IA-STORY IA-POLK IA-JASPER IA-BOONE IA-DALLAS IA-
825 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
DALLAS...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...NORTHWESTERN JASPER...POLK...
SOUTHWESTERN STORY AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WINDSOR HEIGHTS...OR NEAR DES MOINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DES MOINES...CARLISLE...JOHNSTON...PLEASANT HILL...POLK CITY...
MADRID...ANKENY...ALTOONA...BONDURANT...HUXLEY...C
LFAX...
GRANGER...SAYLORVILLE LAKE...SAYLORVILLE...ANKENY AIRPORT...
SHELDAHL...ALLEMAN...SLATER...MITCHELLVILLE AND ELKHART.
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The Snowman
post Jun 9 2011, 08:55 PM
Post #263




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Get ready, Wichita.

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--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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Gilbertfly
post Jun 9 2011, 09:52 PM
Post #264




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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Jun 9 2011, 08:38 PM) *
Not sure why Iowa wouldn't have a watch box. . .they are in the slight risk and have had multiple severe warnings. . .


Guess better late than never. . .

QUOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073-077-
085-099-117-121-123-125-127-129-135-137-145-153-155-157-159-165-
169-171-173-175-177-179-181-185-100900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0456.110610T0250Z-110610T0900Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE
HARRISON JASPER LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MARSHALL MILLS MONROE
MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK
POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SHELBY STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
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jdrenken
post Jun 10 2011, 07:10 AM
Post #265




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QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OK...NEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...

...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...

LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITH AN APPARENT CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTERED VERY NEAR GCC IN NERN
WY. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY
REGION IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRONOUNCED FRONT
ACROSS IL/MO FAIRLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BY 19-20Z...AS SFC
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. IN FACT...MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS IA INTO WI ALONG NOSE
OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD INTO LOWER MI LATER IN
THE DAY REINFORCING AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD RELUCTANTLY
RETREAT INTO SRN LOWER MI AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BENEATH THE
MID LEVEL JET...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION FOR
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS EVEN WEAK
SUPERCELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FOR THIS REASON IT WOULD SEEM
REASONABLE THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS...

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX STRONG HEATING WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO NEAR 100F IN ADVANCE OF
WIND SHIFT. SUCH STRONG HEATING WILL INDUCE DEEP THERMALS AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND INHIBITION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY 22-23Z ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH BASES EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 700MB AND SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40-50F...STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

...ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES OF MS/AL...NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DUE PRIMARILY TO STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. WEAK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY
PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 06/10/2011


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 10 2011, 08:21 AM
Post #266




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Getting confused as to which thread today is for, this one or the other one?











QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN
PLAINS...

...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...

MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WRN SD WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A HIGHER LATITUDE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AGGREGATE SYNOPTIC FRONT-OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF OH/IND/IL TO WEAK CYCLONE
N OF STL. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN TRAILED SWWD THROUGH ERN
KS...NWRN OK INTO WRN TX...N OF LBB. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE LOW
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPING NEWD INTO CNTRL LOWER MI BY 11/12Z.
DOWNSTREAM SEGMENT OF AGGREGATE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RETREAT NWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SETTLES SWD
THROUGH THE OZARKS AND OK.

WELL-DEFINED MCV ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER NRN
IL WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A
WEAKER...SECONDARY MCV W OF STL MOVES ACROSS SRN IL INTO IND.
LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
FOSTER SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IND/OH AND SRN LOWER MI. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MO/MID
MS VALLEY REGION...ANOTHER AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS REGION IS BRUSHED BY NRN PLAINS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION IN CONCERT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000+ J/KG. THE MAJORITY OF WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN S OF
STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR WILL EXIST
ALONG IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR A
COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

...SRN PLAINS...

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...DRYLINE AND PRE-EXISTING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG-SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK INTO WRN/NWRN
TX WITHIN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. HERE TOO...WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SRN/ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SETUP FAVORING
LARGELY MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.
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gustfront
post Jun 10 2011, 09:13 AM
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How nasty is this looking for the Joplin Mo area of the I44 corridor in southwest missouri everyone ????/
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SEMIweather
post Jun 10 2011, 09:18 AM
Post #268




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jun 10 2011, 09:21 AM) *
Getting confused as to which thread today is for, this one or the other one?


I really think this thread should be used for today and then the OH Valley risk tomorrow...then a new thread will probably be needed for say the 11-14th timeframe.

I don't see any reason why this thread should go to the 10th...it's the same front sure but a different low pressure system.


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The Snowman
post Jun 10 2011, 12:50 PM
Post #269




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QUOTE(gustfront @ Jun 10 2011, 09:13 AM) *
How nasty is this looking for the Joplin Mo area of the I44 corridor in southwest missouri everyone ????/


On the edge of slight risk of severe weather. Probably a bit of hail and strong winds, that's about it.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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