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> April 19-21 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Long range (6-10 days): Forecasts and Observations
snowlover2
post Apr 20 2017, 07:00 PM
Post #81




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 20 2017, 07:56 PM) *
SE IN

And they just dropped it.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Apr 20 2017, 07:05 PM
Post #82




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Got another decent looking storm just west of me. Hope it holds.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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Juniorrr
post Apr 20 2017, 07:06 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 20 2017, 08:05 PM) *
Got another decent looking storm just west of me. Hope it holds.

Yea see if it holds to here with that storm earlier... witih our luck it will fall apart laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Apr 20 2017, 07:08 PM
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snowlover2
post Apr 20 2017, 07:52 PM
Post #84




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Apr 20 2017, 08:06 PM) *
Yea see if it holds to here with that storm earlier... witih our luck it will fall apart laugh.gif

Getting some good thunder now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 09:56 PM
Post #85




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No precip here, but saw some lightning off in the distance. Was pretty cool.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 10:00 PM
Post #86




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Ooh boy. Good ol' early day MCS. You bet the outflow boundary from it will enhance some storms later.



The MCS destroys the current enhanced risk area... best parameters stay south of it.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 20 2017, 10:00 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 10:09 PM
Post #87




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Experimental 36 hour HRRR

Squall moving out


Re-development along outflow boundary


Peak-ish of event


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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JDStormsWx
post Apr 20 2017, 10:21 PM
Post #88




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If the morning convection stays on a more northerly track w/o wiping the environment.. it could get semi-interesting tomorrow.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 10:38 PM
Post #89




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QUOTE(JDStormsWx @ Apr 20 2017, 11:21 PM) *
If the morning convection stays on a more northerly track w/o wiping the environment.. it could get semi-interesting tomorrow.

Could be a very busy day if the MCS maintains strength through the morning and afternoon. Then we'd have the severe MCS with a swath of wind damage ahead of possibly semi-discrete supercell development behind it.

We have discrete supercells along the TX/OK border right now... HRRR has more cells popping in TX panhandle and eventually growing into the MCS. Looks pretty strong through the morning hours.

There might be warnings for quite a while from here on.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 20 2017, 10:39 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 10:42 PM
Post #90




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Sounding in OKC... instability not great but good enough to maintain a severe squall. Especially since steeper lapse rates and possibly higher dew points are supposed to move in overnight.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 20 2017, 10:45 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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JDStormsWx
post Apr 20 2017, 10:59 PM
Post #91




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From: Stillwater, OK
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 20 2017, 10:38 PM) *
Could be a very busy day if the MCS maintains strength through the morning and afternoon. Then we'd have the severe MCS with a swath of wind damage ahead of possibly semi-discrete supercell development behind it.

We have discrete supercells along the TX/OK border right now... HRRR has more cells popping in TX panhandle and eventually growing into the MCS. Looks pretty strong through the morning hours.

There might be warnings for quite a while from here on.


Question is.. would storms stay semi-discrete behind MCS? Likely associated w/ coldfront? If they can, than definitely. Volatile environment.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 11:33 PM
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Beautiful supercells
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2017, 01:04 AM
Post #93




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Trimmed down on enhanced. 5% tornado, 30% hail and wind


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

..SUMMARY

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU,
POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

..SYNOPSIS

A STACKED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SEPARATE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST WITH ATTENDANT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID MS
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX/SOUTHEASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS BEFORE
RESTRENGTHENING BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA.

AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM A
LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO NY/PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC,
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME
SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO MID-SOUTH, WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY REGION OF TX IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. GLANCING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MAY ENCOURAGE A NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WEAK LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST TX BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.

..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS

SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EARLY DAY CONVECTION, ITS
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MORNING, AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AND
RE-DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT BY
AFTERNOON. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD
TOWARD THE OZARKS BY LATE MORNING, AND MAY POSE A CONTINUED THREAT
MAINLY FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL ACT TO
REINFORCE THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX, AND LITTLE TO NO
NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE WARM SECTOR IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
JET/TROUGH LARGELY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE EARLY DAY/MORNING CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE OZARKS AND TOWARDS
THE MID-SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AS SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IF PRIOR CONVECTION HAS NOT GREATLY OVERTURNED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. FORECAST WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION, A COUPLE
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION, AND PERHAPS ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PRIOR CONVECTION WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THIS
CONVECTION MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER, WITH PERHAPS A GREATER
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT THROUGH MID EVENING.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 21 2017, 01:04 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2017, 01:09 AM
Post #94




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453








--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2017, 01:29 AM
Post #95




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There's a lonely warm sector supercell right now. It has a nice tilted updraft and elevated hail core.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2017, 01:31 AM
Post #96




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
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A look at the entire cell
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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