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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
stuffradio
post Today, 06:39 PM
Post #1841




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Check out the temps for my area on the 18Z. I don't even know if it has ever been that cold here.
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blizzardOf96
post Today, 07:26 PM
Post #1842




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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 18 2014, 11:20 AM) *
Simplistic analysis of recurring features in the mid levels suggest a BN second half of Jan as well. Lock it in. wink.gif


I would agree with these thoughts as well. The vortex should be crippled by then and -u wind anomalies should propagate down for the second half of Jan in addition to more classic nino like forcing coming into play(driving more PNA with less EPO ridging). The vortex looks to take a wave 1 followed by a wave 2/3 beating with internal upwelling potential. This should be the final blow for the vortex and the catalyst for a predominantly -NAO.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Today, 07:28 PM


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NorEaster07
post Today, 08:02 PM
Post #1843




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This time last year it was snowing in Boston with a wind chill of 3. Evening of Dec. 17th. LP was near MA capes. Martha's Vineyard was 43.

Different this year with the arctic air well north still. Pretty amazing to have a low that close yet Boston was in the teens. This year any cold is getting eroded fast with storms.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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telejunkie
post Today, 08:21 PM
Post #1844




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 18 2014, 08:02 PM) *
This time last year it was snowing in Boston with a wind chill of 3. Evening of Dec. 17th. LP was near MA capes. Martha's Vineyard was 43.

Different this year with the arctic air well north still. Pretty amazing to have a low that close yet Boston was in the teens. This year any cold is getting eroded fast with storms.


think it goes without saying this isn't '13-'14.

GLC train looks pretty strong with the -PNA...oh wait, '13-'14 was predominately -PNA

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Today, 08:23 PM


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Winter '14-'15 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/26 - 6"
12/9-12/11 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 21"
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WeatherMonger
post Today, 09:53 PM
Post #1845




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 18 2014, 01:44 PM) *
CPC updated their long-range outlooks

January 2015


JFM 2015



I buy it, hate seeing it for March though. Love getting out for some morel mushrooms mid Spring. Need some 50 degree nights and plenty of moisture come mid to late April, that could hinder things a bit.

Goes along with my expectations though IMBY
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 09:58 PM
Post #1846




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Dec 18 2014, 09:53 PM) *
I buy it, hate seeing it for March though. Love getting out for some morel mushrooms mid Spring. Need some 50 degree nights and plenty of moisture come mid to late April, that could hinder things a bit.

Goes along with my expectations though IMBY

Keep in mind that's a 33%-40% chance for below average for the SEASON of January/February/March. That means March can still be above average if January and February are below.

Check out JFM 2003



Then March 2003


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 10:01 PM


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The Ohio Valley - Home to some of the most extreme severe weather events on record

- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The "Great" Blizzard of 1978
- The Remnants of Hurricane Ike
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology ('80-'06)
_______________________________
2015 Weather for West Chester, Ohio:
Winter snowfall: 4" (annual average ~18")
Slight risk days: 0
Enhanced risk days: 0
Moderate risk days: 0
High risk days: 0
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