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> Super Typhoon Haima 160MPH
jonjohnson
post Oct 16 2016, 09:16 AM
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not sure what the current strength is, but the rainbow loop on this thing is explosive this morning....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/2...sh-rb-long.html

10/18----wow!!! another buzzsaw blowing up....looks like the philipines is going to take another bow right on the chin.... sad.gif

This post has been edited by jonjohnson: Oct 18 2016, 10:08 AM
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stretchct
post Oct 18 2016, 02:42 PM
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140kts with gusts to 170kts (200mph ohmy.gif )

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM 115 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25-NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
PROVIDES EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY STY HAIMA IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK NEAR 145
KNOTS. BY TAU 24, HAIMA IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIP
OF LUZON, WITH LAND INTERACTION LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SCS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, STY HAIMA WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE STR, TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST
OF HONG KONG.
C. BEYOND TAU 72 STY HAIMA WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN



This post has been edited by stretchct: Oct 18 2016, 02:44 PM


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First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"

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2013-2014 58.25"
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Juniorrr
post Oct 18 2016, 07:45 PM
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Them white top flares unsure.gif


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Oct 18 2016, 07:45 PM
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