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idecline
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idecline

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15 Aug 2018
Tropical Storm Lane is now churning in the Eastern Pacific...forecast to become a Hurricane as soon as Thursday...Hector redux?
Attached Image
QUOTE
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening. The central
dense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in
the western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants.
ASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that
will be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

While the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane
remains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be
favorable for intensification. Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C,
and moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening
at a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is
not well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just
below rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still
a strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period
from the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will
remain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast
is close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected
consensus models.

The storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11
kt. The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical
ridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period,
causing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific.
While the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the
latest model consensus has barely budged since the previous
advisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend. The
latest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction,
close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Attached Image
25 Apr 2018
...The 144th edition of The Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday May 5th...
...the Kentucky Oaks is on Friday May 4th...both races are run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY

Rain, thunderstorms or even a wet track can have a profound effect on the running of the Kentucky Derby...
It can effect the track condition(dry, wet, or muddy) and change the strategies of the riders or trainers...
Also, some horses tend to run better in the mud or wet track than others...all these factors play an important role in the running and outcome of this "Run for the Roses"...

We will try to keep informed of the possibilities...especially starting Sunday Night into Monday...when a clearer picture of what is to come 10 days from now...so far the long term upper air models are forecasting strong thunderstorms in the Plains mid-week...so it looks like a wet or drying out track are already a big possibility...

...taken from the AccuWeather thread about Severe Weather from Apr. 30-May?
Attached File  r0P64ou.png ( 443.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this shows the 'possibility' of severe weather coming up next week...and Louisville and Churchill Downs may be in the firing line following this first mid-week outbreak...

Attached File  500wh.conus.png ( 632.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the upper air for midday Friday shows a definite system of some type may be encroaching on the area

Stay Tuned...
7 Jun 2017
Perhaps few will read this or care about a weather system hitting the West Coast in June...it is unusual though

Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 685.63K ) Number of downloads: 1064


...had to open a thread so some could observe the obvious 'jet streak' which is darting quickly into the back of the first wave of energy that is now reaching the coast...if you watch carefully...an arrow shaped upper signature flies out of the LP in the GOA and is sending upper air (jet energy) reinforcements into the back side of "second' larger front that is still offshore...this should increase uplift and augment rainfall...esp. along the immediate coastline as the front reaches the coastal mountain ranges of California and Oregon...

...the 24hr (12Z Thurs) OPC Pacific 500mb forecast:

Attached File  P_24hr500.gif ( 255.18K ) Number of downloads: 1233


...this shows the elongated trough in the upper atmosphere...and the uplift of the front as makes way inland...

...the 48hr OPC surface:

Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 263.43K ) Number of downloads: 1269


...this shows the "trophiness" sticking around as the lows do the "Fujiwhara" dance... huh.gif
...before moving the whole trough into the CONUS by the weekend...

idee

10 Apr 2017
A wet late week into the weekend brought in another series of unusually wet and windy storms into the West...rainfall is not a necessarily 'normal' weather pattern for April in California...it is usually just the tail end of fronts that push into Washington State and British Columbia as the jet (usually dry.gif ) moves north in Spring...

Here is the next moisture rich storm moving into the picture...with a band of sub-tropical clouds all the way to Hawaii...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 625.99K ) Number of downloads: 1057


...and the 48hr OPC surface map shows the first front pulling through California on Wednesday morning...
with a stronger 'second wave' arriving shortly there after to feast on the residual moisture...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 295.64K ) Number of downloads: 1336


...and the OPC 96hr 500mb map shows 'clear sailing' for the jet to pump energy into the West at least into the weekend... wink.gif
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 259.15K ) Number of downloads: 1392


...will the records continue to fall out West...? ...and will this greatly effect the rest of the CONUS...?

rolleyes.gif ...idecline to be so bold... laugh.gif
1 Feb 2017
Low pressure swirling off the west coast will apparently linger for days bringing wave after wave of rain and winds into the West...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 675.46K ) Number of downloads: 1100


48hr OPC agrees
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 299.68K ) Number of downloads: 1553


and OPC 96hr says :
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 303.46K ) Number of downloads: 1545


and with a flattened ridge more energy is gearing up to the West...
Last Visitors


8 Nov 2018 - 10:34


7 Sep 2018 - 18:47


8 Aug 2018 - 10:39


4 Jun 2018 - 19:18


12 Feb 2018 - 18:49

Comments
Beck
Thank you, Idee =)
25 Sep 2012 - 3:59
wingsovernc
Time to make a comment on my last comment! :O Sorry about that, but u forgave...thank you! :D
28 Jul 2012 - 9:54
wingsovernc
Hi sweet guy! I just now saw your comment.. ur such a sweetie! <3 <3
4 Jul 2012 - 20:45
wingsovernc
Just playing around 'cause you're not around to stop me! (Tongue-out emo goes here)
14 May 2012 - 17:28
Beck
Here's your comment....!
13 Aug 2011 - 0:22

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