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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts, Look-Back
OSNW3
post Mar 22 2015, 07:43 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 22 2015, 09:26 AM) *
Looks like Judah Cohen is a happy guy in saying that his Siberian Snow Cover theory confirmed again.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/2015/...JnNI/story.html


Nice.

Reading the article the first thing that came to my mind was Gary Lezak's 75%.

"Perhaps Cohen’s biggest claim to fame comes from the fact that he and his team’s seasonal forecasts of “temperature and precipitation anomalies” have been right 75 percent of the time, "

Lol.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Mar 22 2015, 08:15 PM


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paletitsnow63
post Mar 24 2015, 01:42 PM
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NYC just gained 3.3" of snow this winter season without any additional snowstorms. laugh.gif

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=20150...X-NOUS41-PNSOKX

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OSNW3
post Mar 31 2015, 08:30 AM
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Feb & Mar 2015 recorded lowest monthly pcpn IMBY since my station genesis. This is the 2nd time these two have done this.

Attached File  wow27.png ( 50.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


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paletitsnow63
post Apr 2 2015, 08:59 AM
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Saw this tweet from JB showing how cold Jan through March was in the NE.


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JDClapper
post Apr 6 2015, 08:51 PM
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Pretty confident now that this is our seasonal total. 3rd most in the past 14 seasons. I would definitely say "odds" favor less snow next year .. we are due for an "average" or "below average" season. 35½" is average the past 14 seasons. We shall see in 12 months.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 34.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2014: 34½"

'14-'15: 49¼" and counting...
'13-'14: 45¼"
'12-'13: 33¼"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42¾"
'09-'10: 33¼"
'08-'09: 20¾"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29¾"
'05-'06: 24½"
'04-'05: 36¾"
'03-'04: 53¾"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"


My Weather Station Data - Loyalsock, PA
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JDClapper
post Apr 6 2015, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Apr 21 2014, 06:45 PM) *
Checking out the past 33 seasons here in CPA .. Williamsport to be specific .. we have never had a 4th year in a row of increasing snow totals (if you count the start of the increases as "#1").

There have been 5 instances of 3 years in a row of increasing totals. For 3 of them, the next season produced less snow than that of the the 1st year. 1 was between the 1st and 2nd, and 1 was between the 2nd and 3rd.

Throwing out everything else.. Nino, Nina, EPA, NAO, sun spots.. etc... and ONLY using this data as a basis for forecasting snow totals for the following season.. I'd suspect the Williamsport Area could be in for a bummer of a year.. 20-25"?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowm...x.php?tab=norms

[attachment=235326:a.jpg]


Couldn't be happier that this "analog" failed. Now, with that said.. what are the chances of ANOTHER season with MORE snow? Even less than it was this year... let's roll those snake eyes!


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2014: 34½"

'14-'15: 49¼" and counting...
'13-'14: 45¼"
'12-'13: 33¼"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42¾"
'09-'10: 33¼"
'08-'09: 20¾"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29¾"
'05-'06: 24½"
'04-'05: 36¾"
'03-'04: 53¾"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"


My Weather Station Data - Loyalsock, PA
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telejunkie
post Apr 8 2015, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Apr 6 2015, 09:51 PM) *
Pretty confident now that this is our seasonal total. 3rd most in the past 14 seasons. I would definitely say "odds" favor less snow next year .. we are due for an "average" or "below average" season. 35½" is average the past 14 seasons. We shall see in 12 months.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 34.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


I think this winter falls in at the #3 spot here as well for snow totals since I moved here in '02, behind '02-'03 & '10-'11. Don't have '02-'03 actual numbers for my valley's but my memory and Albany's records enforce the idea.
Still need just over an 1" to reach the century mark...and just can't seem to get it. But currently snowing out...so maybe today into tonight cool.gif


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Winter '14-'15 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/26 - 6"; 2/2 - 11"; 2/14 - 8"
12/9-12/11 - 10"; 2/5 - 5"; 2/21 - 8"
1/27 - 4"; 2/8-2/9 - 11"
1/30 - 4"; 2/12 - 5"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
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Undertakerson
post Apr 8 2015, 04:06 PM
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Speaking of analogs - Weatherworld does a "long shot" segment in which they use analog "set ups" to predict future weather.

Last October and then November they used analog set ups of: lackluster Atlantic Hurricane Season; and cool temp anom's for the preceding months (respectively) to completely nail the Feb 2015 and March 2015 cold temperature records for PA. I feel they even "split" the arrows with just how true their "aim" was.

They are around 9 for 13 "on target" (5 bullseyes) for this forecasting method.

They just verified those calls on last night's show, so if you visit them on the Web, it should be on their site soon smile.gif


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Avatar picture - my future golfing buddies.
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telejunkie
post Apr 30 2015, 03:18 PM
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I knew the Jan-Mar period was cold here in Vermont...but didn't realize it was the coldest on record. My boss is president of his homeowner's association and this winter we nicknamed him the 'President of Poo' since he was in & out of the office dealing with frozen sewer lines for like 4 weeks there. The bills are now rolling in and homeowner's in his association are trying to throw him under the bus now...classic. But pulling some numbers for him, found this out:

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Apr 30 2015, 03:19 PM
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Winter '14-'15 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/26 - 6"; 2/2 - 11"; 2/14 - 8"
12/9-12/11 - 10"; 2/5 - 5"; 2/21 - 8"
1/27 - 4"; 2/8-2/9 - 11"
1/30 - 4"; 2/12 - 5"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
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NorEaster07
post May 3 2015, 09:59 AM
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Assuming no more snow falls now till June 30th, congratulations to Bangor Maine for having the highest snowfall departure for all main U.S sites this past winter.

Normal snowfall to date is 66.1". They have 139" of snow total which is 72.9" above normal. Wow. Boston came close and it was a neck and neck race in March I believe.

Both CT sites are in the Top 20. BDR at 9th spot being 32 inches above normal

All NYC sites are in

Some impressive numbers and an amazing winter to remember for sure.

Attached File  Snow127.jpg ( 200.7K ) Number of downloads: 0





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Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41.0"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 61.5"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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grace
post May 17 2015, 08:23 PM
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It's funny reading all the thoughts of this winter & even how would be much warmer when we were in December & yet this is what we ended up with:



I'll take that any winter...thank you February

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OSNW3
post May 18 2015, 10:17 AM
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It's snowing in part of ND, SD, & MN today. A good time to update MBY Winter History - http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/rcwinhist13.html

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