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snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Dayton,OH
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snowlover2

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24 May 2017
Probably should have been started yesterday seeing a couple tornado reports in IL but a marginal area for wind/tornadoes on new day 1 for SE IN/S half of OH.

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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across
a large portion of the Southeast. More isolated severe storms will
be possible as far north as the mid-Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough crossing southwest Canada and the Pacific
Northwest digs southeast across the northern Intermountain region
with time, a second/mobile trough will across the eastern U.S.
through the period. A short-wave trough -- embedded within cyclonic
westerly flow around the base of the broader eastern trough -- will
rotate across the Southeast and mid-South region through the
afternoon and evening.

As the aforementioned short-wave trough advances, surface
cyclogenesis is expected over the eastern Tennessee/eastern Kentucky
vicinity during the day, and then shifting north into southwest Ohio
overnight. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will sweep across
the central Gulf Coast region early and into Georgia and eventually
the Carolinas through the afternoon and evening, while a warm front
lifts north to the North Carolina/Virginia border and lingers there
through the evening. These fronts -- and the evolving warm sector
-- will support multiple episodes of widespread showers and
thunderstorms through much of the period.



...The mid-South and mid-Ohio Valley...
While questions exist regarding degree of destabilization across
this region, backed low-level flow near and northeast of the
developing surface low expected to shift north across the area
through the day will support favorable veering of the lower
tropospheric wind field with height. If ample destabilization can
occur, risk for a few stronger storms -- capable of producing
damaging winds along with a tornado or two -- would likely evolve.
Greatest potential for ample CAPE to evolve along with somewhat
stronger deep-layer flow seems to exist across eastern TN/eastern KY
and eastward across the mountains, but will introduce
low-probability risk farther north (into parts of OH/IN) and west
(into central KY and middle TN) given latest model trends.

..Goss.. 05/24/2017
11 May 2017
Next severe threat for the area. SPC has a day 6 area outlined but mentions possibilities on day 5 and 7-8.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains...

Severe probabilities will increase early to middle of next week. The
western trough, centered from near the Pacific Northwest coast to
just offshore the southern CA coast will pivot east toward the Great
Basin by Monday. Some isolated severe threat may develop in the
vicinity of the TX Panhandle. However, uncertainty is still fairly
high with guidance varying in timing and placement of any ejecting
shortwave impulse.

...Day 6/Tue - Southern/Central Plains...

Guidance has become more consistent in ejecting a stronger shortwave
impulse across the southern Rockies and into the Plains on Tuesday.
Rich boundary layer moisture will have had enough time to surge
northward ahead of this feature while a lee low deepens over the
northern/central Plains. Confidence in an organized severe threat
developing in the vicinity of a dryline across parts of central KS
into western/central OK and perhaps the eastern TX Panhandle into
north TX has increased enough to introduce 15% probabilities. The
severe threat may extend further north into the mid-MO Valley ahead
of the eastward progressing surface cyclone, but confidence in
quality moisture that far north is low at this time.

...Day 7-8/Wed-Thu - Southern/Central Plains to the South-Central
States and the Upper Great Lakes...

The severe threat may shift east into parts of the Ozarks/ArkLaTex
on Wednesday. Guidance suggest another subtle shortwave impulse may
eject northeast across central TX into AR, but disparities in timing
and intensity of this feature will preclude introduction of
probabilities at this time. Additionally, a threat may extend
eastward across parts of the upper Great Lakes ahead of the
approaching surface low. This is dependent again on quality of
moisture, and what may evolve upstream on Day 6/Tuesday.

Likewise, a severe threat may continue across parts of the southern
and central Plains into the south-central states on Thursday. Larger
height falls will push eastward as the western trough begins an
eastward push, and strong southwesterly flow will overspread much of
the region. However, details in timing and location vary and
confidence is too low to introduce probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/11/2017
2 Apr 2017
SPC has a day 4 area highlighted for Wednesday from the southern half of Ohio and south. Saying higher probs are probable in later outlooks.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast
region this coming Wednesday into Thursday...

Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into
the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift
eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models
suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad
deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the
Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of
the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone,
initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of
Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center
across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid
Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in
the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts
and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe
probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time
frame.

The pattern is expected to remain progressive, but may trend more
zonal next weekend into early next week, with short wave development
and associated severe weather potential becoming more unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2017
18 Mar 2017
So not sure if anyone else noticed but it seems both NAM and GFS and to a lesser extent the GGEM (and maybe Euro but not sure) are showing a system track across the TN valley with it getting cold enough on the northern edge for accumulating snow.

18z GFS
Attached Image


18z NAM
Attached Image
8 Mar 2017
This is for the early week clipper system being shown. I thought it should be kept separate from the other thread.
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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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