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> Spring 2017
bigmt
post Yesterday, 12:48 PM
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12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_4155tg.png ( 964.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_51frtg.png ( 994.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61frtg.png ( 1010.6K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 02:05 PM
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12z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

Attached File  nhhgfvst.png ( 78.86K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 02:16 PM
Post #1103




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EC has stepped up to freezing rain warnings for parts of the region in advance of the low ejecting northward against the sagging arctic high.

12z ECMWF brings another system out of the south and into Eastern Canada for the end of the month into the beginning of April, then another on a similar trajectory near the 4th. The OP runs have been on the active side recently - wet / white and various shades of the kitchen sink between them.
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 02:23 PM
Post #1104




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Dynamic & active - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
PERSIST OF A RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW REGIME FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. NORTHWEST. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST, WITH A NUMBER OF
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA, AND A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS
THE CONUS. PARTIAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS WILL OCCUR
PERIODICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S.

SUCH PHASING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF OCCURRING ON DAY 3 (12Z
TUE) ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
NORTHERN COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A SOUTHERN COMPONENT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVE EAST, WITH THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT BY
DAY 4 (12Z WED) OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WHICH SKIRTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS HIGH IN THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW POSSIBLE BY DAY 6 (12Z FRI) ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
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snowgeek93
post Yesterday, 02:53 PM
Post #1105




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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 12:29 PM) *
I have to say I'm now quite tempted to run a top 10 for all of the stations on my list but it would seem way too time-consuming even for me.

Here's Pearson and Buttonville's top 10 list FWIW...

Pearson International Airport (YYZ) top 10 list (1937-2017):

1. 1938/1939: 207.4cm
2. 1949/1950: 196.4cm
3. 2007/2008: 194cm
4. 1964/1965: 190.6cm
5. 1971/1972: 188.9cm
6. 1951/1952: 184.8cm
7. 1942/1943: 182.4cm
8. 1970/1971: 171.7cm
9. 1966/1967: 165.5cm
10. 1940/1941: 164cm

Buttonville Airport top 10 list (1986-2017):

1. 2008/2009: 253cm
2. 2007/2008: 251.6cm
3. 1992/1993: 189cm
4. 1998/1999: 187.2cm
5. 1996/1997: 186.6cm
6. 2000/2001: 186.5cm
7. 2013/2014: 184.8cm
8. 2002/2003: 178.4cm
9. 1995/1996: 170cm
10. 2010/2011: 168.1cm



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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EOsnowmom
post Yesterday, 02:53 PM
Post #1106




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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Mar 25 2017, 11:15 AM) *
Not sure what our top 10 snowiest winters would be though I would love to see that list. If we are going on modern records since 1942 this is the top few here from a 2002 report and I'm not sure in the past 15 years there have been any above 500cm here.

2000/01 - 648.4cm
55/56 - 576cm
77/78 - 570.9cm
54/55 - 567.9cm

Totals are completely insane! What's your average snowfall? I think I'd like to move to Newfoundland!
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 02:59 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 25 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Here's Pearson and Buttonville's top 10 list FWIW...


Nice work geek! Crowd-sourcing this information has advantages, no doubt.
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Mar 25 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Totals are completely insane! What's your average snowfall? I think I'd like to move to Newfoundland!


YYT averages 334.9cm annually. A big league player by that much sought-after metric.
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snowgeek93
post Yesterday, 03:21 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 03:59 PM) *
Nice work geek! Crowd-sourcing this information has advantages, no doubt.

It would be interesting to see that list expanded to other locations as well but we're not made of time unfortunately tongue.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Yesterday, 03:30 PM
Post #1110




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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 12:03 PM) *
A summer worthy of a complaint thread maybe, depending on your preferences laugh.gif

https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?...mp;n=7122944B-1

It was very wet but a very active summer. I remember that upper level low pattern we got stuck in where the day would start out sunny but clouds would begin building around noon and almost like clock work t-storm's would fire up throughout the afternoon before clearing into the evening. Some days were just total washouts.

There was a good amount of sunshine as well so it wasn't all bad and and as a weather enthusiast it was quite an impressive season and year in general. It's the reason I'm so interested in this stuff now tongue.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Yesterday, 05:53 PM
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Honestly looking into the long range I think the snow threats are done for Southern Ontario. The Muskoka to Ottawa/Montreal corridor and northwards seem at low to moderate risk for another blast of snow IMO.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Yesterday, 05:53 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 06:58 PM
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Activity could just equal spring sogginess in some areas but a lack of QPF isn't a major issue via the GFS ensembles:

Attached File  gfs_ens_apcpn_namer_64.png ( 126.44K ) Number of downloads: 1


In terms of snow specifically there remains a threat for Atlantic Canada this coming week, hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_16.png ( 153.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_18.png ( 149.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20.png ( 143.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


The 12z Euro was also intriguing for Newfoundland before the month is out.
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bigmt
post Today, 03:33 AM
Post #1113




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00z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

Attached File  nafgghk.png ( 78.09K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Today, 03:41 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 07:58 PM) *
Activity could just equal spring sogginess in some areas but a lack of QPF isn't a major issue via the GFS ensembles:


Still the case as of 00z:

Attached File  gfs_ens_apcpn_namer_64.png ( 126.88K ) Number of downloads: 1


QUOTE
The 12z Euro was also intriguing for Newfoundland before the month is out.


Also still the case as of 00z, basically out to day 10 if that's accurate.

Good ol' fashioned potential anyway but one way or another I'm only in for a slice of it:

Attached File  ecmwf_tsnow_labrador_41.png ( 186.24K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Today, 04:37 AM
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Today's snowfall numbers.

YYJ Victoria, BC - 58.3cm / 39cm (+0)
YVR Vancouver, BC - 69.6cm / 37.7cm (+0)
YYC Calgary, AB - 95.8cm / 84.1cm (+0)

YHM Hamilton, ON - 95.6cm / 146.9cm (+0)
YYZ Toronto, ON - 78.8cm / 103.6cm (+0)
YOW Ottawa, ON - 293.7cm / 208.2cm (+0)
YUL Montreal, QC - 229.3cm / 194.8cm (+0)
YSJ Saint John, NB - 298.2cm / 217.8cm (+0.4)
YYG Charlottetown, PEI - 324cm / 260.5cm (+0.8)
YHZ Halifax, NS - 357.1cm / 203cm (+1)
YQY Sydney, NS - 408.4cm / 258.6cm (+0.8)
YYT St. John's, NL - 395.1cm / 302.8cm (+0.4)
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MrMusic
post Today, 06:21 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 25 2017, 06:53 PM) *
Honestly looking into the long range I think the snow threats are done for Southern Ontario. The Muskoka to Ottawa/Montreal corridor and northwards seem at low to moderate risk for another blast of snow IMO.


11 of the next 14 days have a high temp forecast in double digits here.
Of course , local features such as a lake breeze could alter that, but yes, spring is here.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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bigmt
post Today, 06:57 AM
Post #1117




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06z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_41fr54.png ( 946.55K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_51fdsw.png ( 974.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61fgt5.png ( 971.31K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Today, 07:55 AM
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Got some unexpected clear breaks last night before clouds moved in again. Forecast looking much more like Spring in the coming week.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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bigmt
post Today, 08:50 AM
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WPC surface forecast for day 5:

Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 27.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
MULTI-DAY MEANS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAINTENANCE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WITH FLAT FLOW TO MODERATE
MEAN RIDGING PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST, WHILE A SEPARATE
NRN STREAM PROGRESSES ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS MEAN PATTERN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD FOR SOME EMBEDDED FEATURES.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFS ARISE ALREADY BY EARLY DAY 3 WED WITH A SYSTEM
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. RECENT GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS HAVE BEEN
EARLIER TO CLOSE OFF ENERGY ALOFT RESULTING IN A DEEPER/WWD SFC
SYSTEM THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS.

THE COMBINED EVOLUTION OF THE ABOVE SYSTEM AND UPSTREAM FLOW
ALONG/N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE
STRONG UPR LOW AND ASSOC SFC SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE PLAINS SYSTEM CLUSTERS FAIRLY WELL INTO EARLY
DAY 4 THU BUT THEN SOLNS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DEPENDING ON FLOW OVER
THE NERN U.S./SERN CANADA. GFS/GEFS SCENARIO OF MORE PERSISTENT
NERN U.S. TROUGHING ALOFT, NOW JOINED BY THE 00Z UKMET, RESULTS IN
A MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES
THE EAST. THUS FAR THE MAJORITY SOLN HAS BEEN MORE IN THE REALM
OF THE ECMWF/CMC AND THEIR MEANS WITH A SFC TRACK INTO THE GRTLKS,
CLOSER TO THE PRIOR LOW TRACKS WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED MEAN
PATTERN. EVEN WITH THE DISPARITY IN TRACKS OVER THE EAST, THERE
MAY BE SOME CONVERGENCE IN SOLNS OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS, WITH POCKETS OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR EACH UPR
LOW CENTER AND WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP PERSIST, AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING COOL ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST.
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bigmt
post Today, 09:45 AM
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I could use some assistance in the east during the home stretch or else it's a bit more crow for me - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=2201698

Attached File  marchtempdd.png ( 331.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png ( 121.06K ) Number of downloads: 0
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