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>  6/25-6/27 MidAtl/NE Severe weather and heavy rain, Storms and synoptic system
so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 23 2015, 11:40 PM
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Well here we go again into the active pattern.

Both are for Thursday night into Friday. Might be quite the producer in some spots.

NAM


GFS


Synoptic System that follows is real impressivee on the GFS:




State College AFD

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.

CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.

ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.

PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 23 2015, 11:45 PM
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Im not fully convinced that thursday will yield severe weather yet but the looks do show some potential.

Cape values are predicted around 1000-2000 across much of southern pa and into MD
Shear would also probably be there as well jet aloft just to the north.

Will know better by Wednesday night with better model agreement and get some high res involved.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jun 24 2015, 04:06 AM
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I've been watching the time pd a day or two past this as well b/c it looks like the mean H5 trough will dig in pretty decently.

If this were winter, your thread would be up to 4 pages already. Euro Hr120

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phillyfan
post Jun 24 2015, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 24 2015, 12:40 AM) *
Well here we go again into the active pattern.

Both are for Thursday night into Friday. Might be quite the producer in some spots.

NAM


GFS


Synoptic System that follows is real impressivee on the GFS:


State College AFD

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AIR CONDITIONERS GET A BREAK WED NIGHT AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ.

CLOUDS INCREASE ON THU AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESP FOR SW HALF. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE...AND UP POPS SOME.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

OVERALL...AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN THING IS THIS IS A WET PATTERN.

ANYWAY...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET.

PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY NEXT TUE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


Hopefully I actually get some rain out of this one. laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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clindner00
post Jun 24 2015, 09:29 AM
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So I saw that Larry Cosgrove is suspecting tomorrow's event to be a Derecho and that it could be worse than yesterday's storms. hmmmmm......
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phillyfan
post Jun 24 2015, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Jun 24 2015, 10:29 AM) *
So I saw that Larry Cosgrove is suspecting tomorrow's event to be a Derecho and that it could be worse than yesterday's storms. hmmmmm......

Latest update from Larry Cosgrove:

QUOTE
NAM and RGEM results from 12z are in and continue with potential to develop a derecho from IA and IL into the Mid-Atlantic region. Using the GOES EAST image, I placed limits on the northern and southern extent of the strongest thunderstorm potential tonight and tomorrow.

1) Hot spots for this event will be the south and west suburbs of Chicago; Fort Wayne IN; Columbus into the southern suburbs of Cleveland OH; Pittsburgh PA; Charleston WV; the I-95 corridor between Trenton NJ and Richmond VA; and S NJ into the Delmarva Peninsula.

2) Some communities may pick up 4 inches of rain. With a fast moving impulse like this, damaging winds in bow echoes, with cases of large hail, are the most likely severe weather aspect.

3) The ongoing pattern will favor more severe thunderstorm threats, but most likely will shift a bit south over time. This weekend could be very stormy from the Mid-South into the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

More later....

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove?fref=ts

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jun 24 2015, 11:38 AM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 24 2015, 04:51 PM
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I'm seeing what could be timing issues with this event - at least for some areas, such as near my zones. The best DP and temp are not in synch with the shear, and vorticity. I've only seen what the SREF plumes suggest, so my estimation may not be the best guide on this.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

Edit - that post was for the talk of severe threat. I'm more interested in this.

QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC SHOULD
SINK SLOWLY SWD BY FRIDAY TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD DURING THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN PA WITH A LOW RISK FOR ISOLD TSTMS MOST
LKLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. FWIW THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEVELOPING AFTN TSTMS/QPF OVER SRN PA FRI AFTN VS. THE ECMWF.

THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM THIS WEEKEND
. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE DEVELOPED AND
FARTHER NWWD TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD RIDE UP THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IN AN ALMOST MILLER-B TYPE SCENARIO. THE
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED
UPSLOPE OVERTOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH SHOULD
BE ENHANCED BY COOL AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS
. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COOL
SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THE QUESTION AT THIS RANGE IS **WHERE**
??? FOR NOW
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PA HAVE INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
RISK INTO THE HWO. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 4/5 AND
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PROBABLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON SATURDAY
. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.




This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 24 2015, 05:20 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 24 2015, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 24 2015, 05:51 PM) *
I'm seeing what could be timing issues with this event - at least for some areas, such as near my zones. The best DP and temp are not in synch with the shear, and vorticity. I've only seen what the SREF plumes suggest, so my estimation may not be the best guide on this.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes...mp;mTYP=roadmap

Edit - that post was for the talk of severe threat. I'm more interested in this.


Just saw the 12z Euro and the 12z and 18z GFS both have a really decent rain storm.

As for the severe weather might have to take that out the title but a heavy rain threat from that before this storm does not bode well.

When the EURO and GFS have fairly similar placement time to start nailing rain totals and locations tomorrow will start that process if the 00z suite holds up.

First guess is 1-3" from pittsburgh east to just west of philly and through much of central PA down to northern VA need to really watch this one could be a decent storm. Who would have thought this is june almost july and this type of storm hits.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jun 24 2015, 07:32 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 24 2015, 08:19 PM) *
Just saw the 12z Euro and the 12z and 18z GFS both have a really decent rain storm.

As for the severe weather might have to take that out the title but a heavy rain threat from that before this storm does not bode well.

When the EURO and GFS have fairly similar placement time to start nailing rain totals and locations tomorrow will start that process if the 00z suite holds up.

First guess is 1-3" from pittsburgh east to just west of philly and through much of central PA down to northern VA need to really watch this one could be a decent storm. Who would have thought this is june almost july and this type of storm hits.


Indeed, just when you thought we'd buried the ghosts of the past winter... zing! We get a disco with talk of Miller B synoptic events, with a N based Atl surface HP! blink.gif laugh.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 24 2015, 11:40 PM
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NAM on board now.

Brings about 1" of QPF tomorrow night whether it be convective or not remains to be seen.

The convection going on in the midwest right now is well north of the main instability axis along the "warm front" if you will so it will honestly be where this front sets up for us to get something decent or not.

Really would not be a great thing to have heavy rains before a synoptic system with heavy rains that just spells bad news.

Front right now is down towards Southern VA so it has some work to do before it gets anywhere near here. Have a feeling this one might slide just south of us but hey we have gotten surprises before.

As for the synoptic storm well each model wants to close it off in Ohio which is good news and bad news. Good news the heaviest rain might shift further west a bit with the primary. The bad news is the secondary is going to get going probably somewhere around us.

Also looking aloft thursday night and friday the jet starts to kink and we get in the right entrance region which may enhance rainfall around our area. Will have to see how that plays out but for the synoptic storm there is a jet that cuts straight north and south in PA and NY would not be surprised if we get dryslotted after some morning have rains that allows for some destabilzation and line of storms to develop from this. I saw this years ago happen pretty decent wind event but no two storms are the same.

Just things to keep an eye on.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jun 25 2015, 10:06 AM
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Attached Image


5 day qpf
Attached Image


--------------------
-James
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 25 2015, 02:20 PM
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Have to watch and see if anything pops up severe weather wise across md and va area later but looks like another quick half inch to an inch is possible tonight before the storm gets going late friday night into saturday morning.

Flash flood guidance (FFG) shows we only need 2-3.5" in 24 hours to cause flash flooding which seems very possible from what the models are showing.

in 6 hours we need just 1.5-3" which some of the models... EURO, NAM and for some reason cant see the GFS but pretty sure the GFS does have as well.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?l...amp;duration=24


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


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phillyfan
post Jun 25 2015, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 25 2015, 03:20 PM) *
Have to watch and see if anything pops up severe weather wise across md and va area later but looks like another quick half inch to an inch is possible tonight before the storm gets going late friday night into saturday morning.

Flash flood guidance (FFG) shows we only need 2-3.5" in 24 hours to cause flash flooding which seems very possible from what the models are showing.

in 6 hours we need just 1.5-3" which some of the models... EURO, NAM and for some reason cant see the GFS but pretty sure the GFS does have as well.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?l...amp;duration=24

Rain just beginning here.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 25 2015, 04:11 PM
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If HRRR is correct, there looks to be carnage in SE VA region throughout the night. Very heavy convective rain showing up. I'll have to look some more but current conditions seem like a set up for a very rough night.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 25 2015, 04:35 PM
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As I said the other day, if we were in winter ... rolleyes.gif

.
QUOTE
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**INCREASING POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAINSTORM WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND**

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING AN
VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CONUS. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
ERN TROUGH MAY REACH -3SD BELOW NORMAL...AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
OCCLUDED SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT PROGGED FROM THE MID ATLC COAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.
RECENT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
CONCERNING THE SFC LOW...WHICH IS MORE REMINISCENT OF A LATE FALL
OR EARLY WINTER TYPE SYSTEM..
.SHOWS A BIT MORE SPREAD WITH THE NAM
AND GFS GOING THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. WPC NOTED THE GFS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE CAUSED IT
TO BE MUCH STRONGER AND ON THE NW EDGE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE
CMC IS VERY SIMILAR BUT LESS INTENSE WITH THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW.
THE ECMWF/NAM CAMP FAVORS MORE ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET
DESPITE ITS CURIOUS QPF PLACEMENT OFFSHORE.

COLD SEASON-LIKE DYNAMICS AND ANOMALOUS EAST/SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW
SHOULD HELP PROMOTE BROAD WAA
...AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE TOP OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY STRONG COOL AIR DAMMING EAST
OF THE MTNS
. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS SUGGESTED BY THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO ABOVE AVG IN THE PATTERN
AND KEY INGREDIENTS SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS -- BUT THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL FALL. WITH A STRONG SIGNAL STILL POINTING TOWARD
CENTRAL PA HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THE ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING IN THE HWO. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY
CONSIDER ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH WITH SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA LKLY THE MOST VULNERABLE/PRONE TO FLOODING. AT
THIS STAGE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
ARE A GOOD BET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN RATES/FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT THIS MAY BE OFFSET TO SOME EXTENT BY STRONG
DYNAMICS AND ABOVE AVG PWATS. THE RECENT WET SPELL AND ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JUNE. SOME RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE SET. SUNDAY DOES NOT LOOK MUCH
WARMER. RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND RAINSTORM
SHOULD PACK MUCH LESS OF A PUNCH...BUT NONETHELESS PROLONG THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR ABOUT
THE LAST MONTH OR SO. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY STAY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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JDClapper
post Jun 26 2015, 07:03 AM
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Timing seems to have moved up since I checked yesterday.. now looks like an all day soaker, not just a PM/Night soaker.

Couple qpf forecasts...

Williamsport
0z GFS

Attached Image


0z NAM

Attached Image


Harrisburg
0z GFS
Attached Image

0z NAM

Attached Image


CTP Forecast

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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phillyfan
post Jun 26 2015, 09:29 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 26 2015, 08:03 AM) *
Timing seems to have moved up since I checked yesterday.. now looks like an all day soaker, not just a PM/Night soaker.
CTP Forecast

Attached Image


Mount Holly dragging the feet on issuing a flood watch over here.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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JDClapper
post Jun 26 2015, 12:19 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 26 2015, 08:03 AM) *
Timing seems to have moved up since I checked yesterday.. now looks like an all day soaker, not just a PM/Night soaker.

Couple qpf forecasts...

Williamsport
0z GFS

Attached Image


0z NAM

Attached Image


Harrisburg
0z GFS
Attached Image

0z NAM

Attached Image


CTP Forecast

Attached Image


12z's backing off a tad.. more towards the 2" range, not ~2.5". It's just like watching the models in the winter battle out qpf amounts! biggrin.gif

12z GFS .. 1.9" (IPT)
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec

12z NAM .. 2.0"
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec

MDT
12z GFS .. 1.8"
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec

12z NAM .. 1.6"
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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phillyfan
post Jun 26 2015, 02:09 PM
Post #19




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From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Flood Watch now in effect till 5am Sunday:

QUOTE
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...AUTUMN-LIKE PATTERN WILL HELP PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ060-061-070-071-101>104-270315-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0003.150627T1600Z-150628T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-BERKS-LEHIGH-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE
302 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL.
IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...DELAWARE...EASTERN CHESTER...EASTERN
MONTGOMERY...LEHIGH...PHILADELPHIA...WESTERN CHESTER AND
WESTERN MONTGOMERY.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TWO TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT
RAIN CAN BE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING. THE INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE MOST VULNERABLE DURING THIS EVENT
AS IS POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. MAINSTEM RIVERS SUCH AS
THE SCHUYLKILL AND DELAWARE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jun 26 2015, 02:09 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 26 2015, 02:54 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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I have that uneasy winter feeling that a major dryslot is going to bust some forecasts in or near CTP land. We may get a half way decent weekend IF we are very very lucky.
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