Invest 92L, Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential: Low - 10% Options

[The Day After To...]

We now have Invest 92. I am still gathering info on the storm so feel free to post models and forcsts before i do.

Wanna see where i got info from? Right here-Scource(hehehe)

I hope i did this right.

[Removed_Member_Snowlover123_*]

We now hve Invest 92. I m still gathering info on the storm so feel free to post models and forcsts before i do.

Wanna see where i got info from? Right here-Scource(hehehe)

I hope i did this right.

You did. We now have 92L, but a non-threat to the US. Shear will tear it apart before it gets there.

-Snowlover123

[east coast storm]

You did. We now have 92L, but a non-threat to the US. Shear will tear it apart before it gets there.

-Snowlover123

I would like to see 92L make it here. It would be exciting to have mild tropical
system come up the coast. I like exciting weather. Just as long as we don't
have a major hurricane moving north towards the NYC L.I. area, that
would not be too exciting.

[NYCSuburbs]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source



Not too sure about this one, it seems to be too far south. The record for the southernmost tropical cyclone in the northern Atlantic is 7.2N, this invest is at 6.3N. If it runs into favorable conditions near the Caribbean, then I can see how it may develop, otherwise I'm not expecting much out of it.

[MAC292OH10]

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18Z HWRF....

@48hr




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18Z GFDL

@48hr





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18Z GFS

[pyrapurcell]

Is it even possible for this to get closer to the US before getting torn apart?

[MAC292OH10]

Is it even possible for this to get closer to the US before getting torn apart?

it appears 92L will run into a wall of shear...

12Z ECMWF @72hr



HPC D7



This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 12 2010, 09:16 PM

[east coast storm]

it appears 92L will run into a wall of shear...

12Z ECMWF @72hr



HPC D7

If the ridge in the Carolinas positioned itself further north, it could cause 92L to
take a more west track towards the SE coast. You can't discount that possibility.

[Phased Vort]

It seems the GGEM was right by showing this as a potential, although the GGEM does make this become a tropical storm.

[MAC292OH10]

If the ridge in the Carolinas positioned itself further north, it could cause 92L to
take a more west track towards the SE coast. You can't discount that possibility.

to many IFs this far out and alot lot can change with the synoptic over 7 days, its more rational to focus track/strength overv the next 72hrs...granted,it is impressive for a June AOI,but then again even with all the factors that are favorable for development, that is some killer shear to survive...as you can see below,that strip of vorticity entering the Caribbean @168hr(as noted by the surface trof on the HPC D7 map(seen above)...

[MAC292OH10]

If the ridge in the Carolinas positioned itself further north, it could cause 92L to
take a more west track towards the SE coast. You can't discount that possibility.

see what i mean...

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130244
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 PM AST SAT JUN 12 2010

RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON
ANALYZED ALONG 35W HAS A BROAD SFC CIRCULATION. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS
BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF ABOUT 12N. 12Z GFS DOES
NOT LONGER INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ALL GUIDANCE XCPT
12Z CANADIAN INDICATE THIS WAVE APPROACHING PR/USVI NEXT FRI AS AN
OPEN WAVE.

[Phased Vort]

That's a pretty healthy and well organized eastern wave for June. The convection also looks pretty nice.





I'd not be much surprised if this became a depression, maybe before getting hit by the stronger shear. As long as it can handle the shear that's is in front of it, since it will increase some, then it stands a better chance to develop, as then the shear will be decreasing.

[MAC292OH10]

also notice the 00Z low track relative to its 18z position...thats what makes invests fun...the COC can bounce around ever so slightly over 6hr periods between model cycles and the models cant keep up at times...wouldn't surprise me to see this low run nearly due W for a few cycles before transitioning WNW/NW rather then the abrupt WNW/NW tracking some of these first few model cycles are showing right from intialization....a few of us have seen it before with past AOIs/storms...

00Z early




This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 12 2010, 10:16 PM

[Phased Vort]

also notice the 00Z low track relative to its 18z position...thats what makes invests fun...the COC can bounce around ever so slightly over 6hr periods between model cycles and the models cant keep up at times...wouldn't surprise me to see this low run nearly due W for a few cycles before transitioning WNW/NW rather then the abrupt WNW/NW tracking some of these first few model cycles are showing right from intialization....a few of us have seen it before with past AOIs/storms...

00Z early

This early in the developmental stage, since it's still in its embryonic stages, the tracking models give us the best guesses at best for the track of the system, due to the reason you talked about on your post.

Yea, we have seen such situation before indeed.

[NYCSuburbs]

While the shear ahead of the disturbance may prevent it from becoming tropical for a while, if it does become tropical at all, some of the models seem to be intensifying it way too quickly and too much.

Does the SHIPS model seem a little unreliable?



This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jun 12 2010, 10:32 PM

[Phased Vort]

While the shear ahead of the disturbance may prevent it from becoming tropical for a while, if it does become tropical at all, some of the models seem to be intensifying it way too quickly and too much.

Does the SHIPS model seem a little unreliable?

Agreed.

However, all of them make it become a tropical storm, albeit a weak one, excluding the SHIPS.

[east coast storm]

see what i mean...

Thanks for your reply. I can see its not to promising. As you know, its very rare
for a tropical depression or storm to traverse the atlantic from Africa in June.
As we go towards July and especially August, when most of the shear
is relaxed, then we will have to be concerned, especially this year, as
you know, its forecasted to be very busy.

[kab2791]

Well well well, been at work all day and come home to discover this actually decent looking lemon drop. Prime time for development is now and in the short term, and development time could increase if the invest stays further south.

[Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*]

Currently conditions are favorable for some development

However...off to its NW conditions go downhill drastically

Stronger Shear and SAL



At this point not really expecting too much out of this invest

[Phased Vort]

Upgraded to a medium 30% orange candy drop.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook


Let's see if it manages to become TD1.

Attached image(s)