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> Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules, By Popular Request
jdrenken
post Oct 17 2013, 10:25 AM
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Hello all,

A special request has been made that I explain the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to the masses. Since the Bering Sea Rule is the first "heads up" in a pattern I will begin with it.

The Bering Sea Rule was a pattern that I recognized back in 2011/2012 while performing my moderator duties at Accuweather.com. Joe Bastardi made a claim that after some monster storms of 1950 and 1974 in the Bering Sea, that within 3 weeks of those storms we saw monster storms for the East and left it at that. Sadly enough, I was playing firefighter in the thread below and the corresponding OBS thread because his hype didn't come true.

Forecast thread:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...=jbentry1461670

OBS thread:


Here is a picture that he tweated showing the 50/74 storms in question.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1460615

...and the wiki on both storms...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1460617

Over the years, I have amassed multiple post where I have correlated the above to a pattern that follows. That is where JB got himself into trouble. He was attempting to get people involved in the hype of some monster storms instead of looking at the pattern in general. One of my favorite "JDism's" on the forum is "It's all about the pattern, and knowing the right pattern is what it's all about!" or "We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!"

Is there any research outside of me that has looked deeper into this...not that I can find. In fact, if one performs a google search on this, you will find two good friends of mine who have typed up blogs about the subject based on what I've taught them.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/search/label/...ng%20Sea%20Rule

http://www.scmweather.com/?cat=35

As for the Typhoon Rule...this rule has been around for decades.
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a277210.pdf

It became popular by Joe Bastardi who used it while at Accuweather. The rule is quite simple and applies all year round! If a typhoon recurves as it approaches Japan, whether it be too late to miss the Korean Peninsula or completely miss Japan OTS, the weather in the Eastern US is teleconnected 6-10 days later. How does this apply all year you ask? Easy way to think about it is that a cold front is forcing the typhoon to recurve one way or the other. Cold fronts aren't seasonally dependant like typhoons are...they happen all year round! The same applies if the typhoon heads into Mainland China. That translates to a ridge blocking the typhoon from recurving towards Japan and the Eastern US will have a heat ridge develop in 6-10 days as a result.


A few resources that I use to help me with the pattern recognition techniques...

WPC 5 Day Lower 48 Forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

WPC Alaska Day 4-8 500mb Forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

Ocean Prediction Center
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml

Weather Online Expert Charts 500mb
GFS: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...ERIOD=&WMO=
Euro: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...M=0&PERIOD=

Accuweather Pro Animator
North Pacific View
http://proa.accuweather.com/phoenix2/inclu...r/imageloop.asp


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NorEaster07
post Oct 17 2013, 12:23 PM
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I guess I'll post this here.

I Pulled the 2012 re-curves. The ones that past 30N small and big. Found there was a trough 6-10 days afterwards in Central-Eastern US.

Kirogi: Aug 4-9. 50mph winds max.
Tembin: Aug 19-30. 135mph Cat4.
Bolavan: Aug 20-28. 145mph Cat 4.
Sanba: Sept 10-17. 175mph Cat 5.
Jelawat: Sept 20-30. 160mph Cat 5.
Ewiniar: Sept 24-29. 65mph
Prapiroon: October 7-19. 115mph Cat 3
Maria: October 14-19. 65mph

As I was pulling the 500mb maps I got to the last two not realizing I was going to grab October 30th. Talk about timing.

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jdrenken
post Oct 18 2013, 09:34 AM
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BIG news regarding the #Beringsearule in the next week!


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It's a work in progress!

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jdrenken
post Oct 19 2013, 08:41 PM
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Going to spend my night researching more of the #beringsearule. This time, slp correlations.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2013, 05:16 PM
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As I sit here in the production room of KOPN I can't help but think how much my life has changed in the past 6 months. For 13 years, my "job" has been focused on the computer industry, while the weather became a "hobby". Things happen for a reason, but it makes you wonder if those should have been switched that many years ago. In the past 4 months alone, I have been on cloud nine with volunteering at KOPN to record the weather forecast and in the past month, have been taking studio classes at Columbia Access Television to forecast weather for their station.

I had my second meeting with Dr. Lupo, department chair, of the University of Missouri Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He is going to approach his long range forecasting students and create a research project based on my 'Bering Sea Rule' that I have used for 2 years to forecast at least 19-21 days in advance. More information as I receive it!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Oct 29 2013, 11:12 PM
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MAJOR implications in the works!!!


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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MaineJay
post Oct 30 2013, 05:16 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 23 2013, 06:16 PM) *
As I sit here in the production room of KOPN I can't help but think how much my life has changed in the past 6 months. For 13 years, my "job" has been focused on the computer industry, while the weather became a "hobby". Things happen for a reason, but it makes you wonder if those should have been switched that many years ago. In the past 4 months alone, I have been on cloud nine with volunteering at KOPN to record the weather forecast and in the past month, have been taking studio classes at Columbia Access Television to forecast weather for their station.

I had my second meeting with Dr. Lupo, department chair, of the University of Missouri Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He is going to approach his long range forecasting students and create a research project based on my 'Bering Sea Rule' that I have used for 2 years to forecast at least 19-21 days in advance. More information as I receive it!


That's awesome, and thanks for all the great info you provide! Keep up the good work


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jdrenken
post Oct 30 2013, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 30 2013, 05:16 AM) *
That's awesome, and thanks for all the great info you provide! Keep up the good work


Thanks for the kudos! On a side note, check out this UCAR piece that I stumbled across.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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jdrenken
post Nov 2 2013, 02:33 PM
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Yet another nugget!


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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jdrenken
post Feb 19 2014, 06:09 PM
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Here you go!


Attached thumbnail(s)
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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mmi16
post Feb 20 2014, 07:33 PM
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Congrats for the recognition!


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jdrenken
post Jun 6 2014, 08:39 AM
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An update on the BSR!

From the University of Missouri's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences chair...
QUOTE
With so many authors on this, we’ll give first author to Joe, then Josh, David and Travis. Eric and I can go down the list. Read the abstract and let me know if you have any suggestions. Also, let me know what you’d like your “affiliation” to be when I submit this. (example: I’m MU, Dept of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science)


An email that I received recently from the NWA Annual Conference...
QUOTE
Thank you for your abstract submission. A member of the program committee will
contact you with details of the annual meeting and abstract review process in the
coming weeks. Notification as to the disposition of your submission will be made
no later than 18 July 2014. For questions in the interim, including requests to
change or withdraw your abstract submission, please e-mail annualmeeting@nwas.org.

We look forward to seeing you in Salt Lake City this October!


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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MaineJay
post Jun 7 2014, 05:47 AM
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Top notch, JD! Congratulations, and is the Josh mentioned, OSNW3? If so, a congratulations would be in order for him as well. Although I understand but a fraction of what you guys do, you efforts are greatly appreciated.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 7 2014, 05:49 AM
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jdrenken
post Jun 12 2014, 09:03 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 7 2014, 05:47 AM) *
Top notch, JD! Congratulations, and is the Josh mentioned, OSNW3? If so, a congratulations would be in order for him as well. Although I understand but a fraction of what you guys do, you efforts are greatly appreciated.


Thank you and yes...he is OSNW3!


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It's a work in progress!

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jdrenken
post Jul 6 2014, 08:49 AM
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It's All Related!!!

Acronym's galore!


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2014, 04:39 AM
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http://www.examiner.com/article/developmen...-for-new-jersey
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jdrenken
post Sep 1 2014, 05:55 PM
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I finally was able to upload the interview from 19AUG14 on the KOPN Freedom Forum radio show.


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jdrenken
post Sep 10 2014, 08:06 AM
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It's official...we are on the poster agenda for #cpcstlouis2015! http://t.co/zi5qHfDxEY #bsr #typhoonrule #iso


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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jdrenken
post Sep 21 2014, 08:46 AM
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One month to go!
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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Sep 24 2014, 11:03 AM
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Well lookie here...


Don't have to think twice about what I am going to be advocating at the cpc st. louis conference!


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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