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> Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules, By Popular Request
jdrenken
post Oct 9 2014, 06:20 PM
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Twitter: Just placed reservation for camera and wireless microphone to @columbiatv for the #cpcstl15 conference! #bsr #typhoonrule


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jdrenken
post Oct 31 2014, 05:47 PM
Post #22




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It's official...I'm scheduled for WeatherBrains on December 1st.

Also...the research team has been requested from the CPC to submit an "extended abstract" upwards of 4 pages in length due in January.


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jdrenken
post Nov 6 2014, 06:04 PM
Post #23




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Question from the Thanksgiving thread for Plains/MW/OV/GL...

QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Nov 6 2014, 02:39 PM) *
Was there any major Bering Sea storms during mid-late February 1993?


How is this? I couldn't find an archived chart going that far back, but the graphic speaks for itself.


Attached image(s)
Attached Image Attached Image
 


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jdrenken
post Nov 16 2014, 11:35 AM
Post #24




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Some ESRL Reanalysis for the Super Outbreak of 2011

06APR11 Bering Sea 500mb
Attached Image

26APR11 North America 500mb
Attached Image

26APR11 CONUS 500mb

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


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jdrenken
post Nov 27 2014, 01:06 PM
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Don't forget to listen in on Weatherbrains December 1st show at 8:30pm for my interview!


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jdrenken
post Dec 5 2014, 10:28 PM
Post #26




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Have a gander at the Weatherbrains episode 462 which I was on!


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jdrenken
post Dec 6 2014, 03:33 PM
Post #27




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Extended abstract that was requested from the CPC CPDW is almost finished. Next month we tackle the AMS 2015 annual conference in Phoenix, AZ!


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jdrenken
post Jan 7 2015, 11:42 PM
Post #28




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I have just sent the 6 page extended abstract to the CPC to augment our poster presentation back in October. Once the paper is included in all of the other extended abstracts, I will provide y'all the link!

B-Z to the #bsr team!


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jdrenken
post Jan 8 2015, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 7 2015, 10:42 PM) *
I have just sent the 6 page extended abstract to the CPC to augment our poster presentation back in October. Once the paper is included in all of the other extended abstracts, I will provide y'all the link!

B-Z to the #bsr team!



Following up...check here for our paper!!!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/39cdpw_digest.htm


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jdrenken
post Jan 17 2015, 05:08 AM
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The request are coming in!

QUOTE
 
Dear Dr. Anthony R. Lupo, 
                                   
         This is Earth Science and Engineering (ISSN 2159-581X), a  professional journal published across the United States by David Publishing Company, Chicago, IL, USA. We have learned your paper “ Using  the Bering Sea and typhoon rules to generate long­range forecasts ” from the "39th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop". We are very interested in your paper. If the paper has not been published in other journal, we would like to publish your paper in our journal Earth Science and Engineering. All your original and unpublished papers are welcome (although the paper has already been published in the conference, if there is no ISSN or ISBN for the conference, the paper can also be published in our journal). If you have the idea of making our journal a vehicle for your research interests, please send electronic version of your papers or books to us through email attachment in MS word format. Attachment is the sample of the journal.


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jdrenken
post Feb 3 2015, 03:51 PM
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It's official!

B-Z TEAM!!!!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/39cdpw_digest.htm


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jdrenken
post Feb 26 2015, 07:58 PM
Post #32




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In my email box...

QUOTE
Dear 39th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop (CDPW) Participants,

Thanks for your contributions. The 39th NOAA CDPW Digest compiled by NWS OST and CPC is available online at the following address.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/Collections.htm

When reading online, click “Read Online”. Turn on “Full Screen Mode” to maximize the view area. Some tools and options, such as “Zoom”, “Layout”, “Index” etc., are useful to make your reading more comfortable. You can also download it by clicking "Download PDF".

This volume will be included in the NOAA Library catalog. In future, you can cite papers in it as follows.

Author(s), 2015: Extended summary title. Climate Prediction S&T Digest, 39th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, St. Louis, MO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Page number. [Available online at http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/noaa_documents/NW...W/39th_2015.pdf]

As is evident in this digest, the climate community is continuing to make major strides in the foundational research necessary to improve understanding and to advance climate prediction and monitoring capabilities. Some issues probed are critical to service development and need community-wide attention.

We hope this digest will help ensure that research advances are both shared with the broader community and also transitioned into operations. This is especially important as NOAA works to enhance the weather-climate connection and promote integrated services both across the agency and with external partners. Please provide your comments/suggestions for future improvement.

Sincerely,

Jiayu & David

---
Jiayu Zhou, Ph. D.
S&TI Climate Mission Lead
Office of Science and Technology
NOAA's National Weather Service Headquarters
Silver Spring, MD 20910

David DeWitt, Ph. D.
Director
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA's National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740


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jdrenken
post Mar 7 2015, 11:05 AM
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A teaser of sorts...

Received a message from a graduate student that they will be citing the paper for their research on how the EPO is more of a connection to the Midwest than the NAO/AO "standard" that we hear about. I was told their paper should be finished this summer.


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jdrenken
post Aug 1 2015, 11:43 AM
Post #34




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Submitted to #cpcdw40 and #ams2016. First is the Climate Prediction Center diagnostic 40th workshop in Denver coming up this October and second is the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in New Orleans coming up in January!

QUOTE
Bering Sea Rule 2015 Abstract

Using the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to Generate Long-Range forecasts II: Predictability of Extreme and Severe Weather

The Bering Sea Rule (BSR) has been shown to be an effective long range forecasting tool. One can find 8-14 day and monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation through the Climate Prediction Center. However, there are no forecast tools for looking at the possibility of extreme, or severe, weather past mid-range forecasts, or about eight days courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center. Computer models are also not able to forecast effectively beyond the seven to 15 day range in the PNA region, as dynamic predictability diminishes severely. Utilizing three important data collection points in the Pacific and over the continental United States, and the Bering Sea Rule, forecasts that perform better than climatology can be obtained. Using autocorrelation and fourier analysis of the PNA Index, we find a strong 20 to 30 day oscillation that would correspond to the BSR. These statistical techniques also show some promise for the identification of potential extreme, or severe, weather events beyond the dynamic forecasting range. Thus these forecasts would be of interest to the government, energy, agriculture, and other sectors in identifying the potential for severe weather.


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WeatherMate
post Aug 13 2015, 04:59 AM
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The massive storm in the Bering Sea in 2014, off the western Alaska coast and to the east of Russia, had the minimum central pressure of 924 millibars (mb). This storm probably set a record for the strongest storm observed in the North Pacific Ocean.


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jdrenken
post Aug 24 2015, 07:33 PM
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It's official! We've been cited!!!

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0084.1


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jdrenken
post Aug 31 2015, 08:50 AM
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I just received the agenda for the 40th Climate Prediction Workshop and we were given the opportunity to speak!

October 27th, 2015

14:00 – 14:20 Using the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules to Generate Long-Range forecasts II: Predictability of Extreme Weather
Joseph S. Renken, KOPN-FM


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jdrenken
post Sep 26 2015, 09:58 AM
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For those in Indiana I am giving the same presentation here that I will give at the CPC Conference in Denver...

Indiana Storm Chasers Convention

QUOTE
Where : MOORESVILLE PUBLIC LIBRARY
220 West Harrison Street
Mooresville, IN 46158

When : Saturday November 14th
9 am - 5 pm

Cost : Online $20

At Door $25


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jdrenken
post Oct 16 2015, 07:13 PM
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Dr. Lupo and I ran a Fourier Analysis on the PNA data since we have found the ability to forecast the PNA ahead of time. Plus...we are looking at the possibility of doing the same for the EPO.

The presentation will be completed this weekend!


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jdrenken
post Oct 29 2015, 10:00 PM
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Hello gang!

I just got back from the 40th NWS CPC Diagnostic Workshop and my presentation. If you'd like to see it, go here.


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