Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

237 Pages V  « < 235 236 237  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts, Look-Back
snowsux
post Yesterday, 02:17 PM
Post #4721




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 701
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





QUOTE(snowyweatherman @ Mar 5 2015, 02:03 PM) *
Still a storm there on 16th but not as robust as the 6Z


Accuwx shows Pittsburgh area in the 50's that day. ohmy.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Today, 05:02 AM
Post #4722




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,441
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





I doubt that one operational run of one of the model camp, will tell the true story of the mid month threat.

I also doubt that anyone takes an Accuwx D10 temperature forecast very seriously (at least anyone who's been following along)

The ensembles have several members with various depictions of a cold storm for the MidAtl/NE and before that a shot for the mid-west/OH Valley. The way the models have been this year, I'm not letting my guard down until April.

Check out Hr240 on most of the members in this set of the GEFS for a winter storm - beyond that for the temps.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

Between now and then, we in the East only get back towards (but not even quite to) our seasonal averages. sad.gif

I am as ready for Spring as the next person, but I won't try to wish winter away if it's not ready to leave.


--------------------
#wintersrevengecontinues

Accu-Forums MidAtl/NE Champion Snowfall Forecaster 2015

IMBY Snow Ttl/Season: 47.75"/16 events = 2.98"/event
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Today, 05:54 AM
Post #4723




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,827
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 6 2015, 05:02 AM) *
I doubt that one operational run of one of the model camp, will tell the true story of the mid month threat.

I also doubt that anyone takes an Accuwx D10 temperature forecast very seriously (at least anyone who's been following along)

The ensembles have several members with various depictions of a cold storm for the MidAtl/NE and before that a shot for the mid-west/OH Valley. The way the models have been this year, I'm not letting my guard down until April.

Check out Hr240 on most of the members in this set of the GEFS for a winter storm - beyond that for the temps.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

Between now and then, we in the East only get back towards (but not even quite to) our seasonal averages. sad.gif

I am as ready for Spring as the next person, but I won't try to wish winter away if it's not ready to leave.



Agree but what part of the Mid Atlantic? is it for PA and north?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Today, 05:56 AM
Post #4724




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,441
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 6 2015, 05:54 AM) *
Agree but what part of the Mid Atlantic? is it for PA and north?

That's what we are left with to figure out - why we come here. Climo says it's probably not a Dixie type storm (below 40N) but I wouldn't put any money down one way or the other, not at this stage in the game.


--------------------
#wintersrevengecontinues

Accu-Forums MidAtl/NE Champion Snowfall Forecaster 2015

IMBY Snow Ttl/Season: 47.75"/16 events = 2.98"/event
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Today, 06:38 AM
Post #4725




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,441
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





GFS shows two snow threats now - one near 3/16 and one while I'm down in Fl on vacation (on the 1st tee at this time and date at Bay Tree Golf Club, Tavares, FL).

UTS travel rule in effect? laugh.gif laugh.gif

Attached File  f372.gif ( 258.76K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Today, 06:43 AM


--------------------
#wintersrevengecontinues

Accu-Forums MidAtl/NE Champion Snowfall Forecaster 2015

IMBY Snow Ttl/Season: 47.75"/16 events = 2.98"/event
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joeman
post Today, 06:48 AM
Post #4726




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 238
Joined: 6-February 08
From: CT...(Watertown)
Member No.: 13,465





Accu has temps of western ct in the 50's for that 3 day time period around the 16th....


--------------------
Oxford Automatic Weather Observing / Reporting Sys (KOXC)
Lat: 41.41 Lon: -73.1 Elev: 728ft.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Today, 07:00 AM
Post #4727




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,441
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(joeman @ Mar 6 2015, 06:48 AM) *
Accu has temps of western ct in the 50's for that 3 day time period around the 16th....

And we all know how D10 temp forecasts go - about the same as D10 Op model runs. So who knows at this point?

Nature does not care about what Accu's opinion is at any given time period, nor does it care what the GFS says.


--------------------
#wintersrevengecontinues

Accu-Forums MidAtl/NE Champion Snowfall Forecaster 2015

IMBY Snow Ttl/Season: 47.75"/16 events = 2.98"/event
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
psu1313
post Today, 07:42 AM
Post #4728




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,353
Joined: 29-January 10
From: Arlington, VA
Member No.: 21,194





The 15th/16th threat is interesting because it's energy from the STJ meeting with energy diving out of Canada. With the NAO remaining positive, it's more likely an Apps runner but then again, i'm not putting anything past this winter. I'd say other than the mountains of WV and Maryland, below the Mason Dixon line is done for snow.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
east coast storm
post Today, 08:59 AM
Post #4729




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,102
Joined: 20-May 10
From: Melbourne Fla
Member No.: 22,816





QUOTE(psu1313 @ Mar 6 2015, 07:42 AM) *
The 15th/16th threat is interesting because it's energy from the STJ meeting with energy diving out of Canada. With the NAO remaining positive, it's more likely an Apps runner but then again, i'm not putting anything past this winter. I'd say other than the mountains of WV and Maryland, below the Mason Dixon line is done for snow.

The 6Z GFS was once again interestng as it has a low moving NE out of the Gulf
and taking the classic track up the EC to near the BM.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Today, 10:00 AM
Post #4730




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,890
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





Just when I thought the "blues" were going going gone. Their coming back! 0Z NAEFS.

This post has been edited by paletitsnow63: Today, 10:00 AM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  NAEFS0306.png ( 44.32K ) Number of downloads: 6
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MotownWX
post Today, 12:13 PM
Post #4731




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 236
Joined: 26-February 13
From: Rochester Hills, MI
Member No.: 28,320





I'm alright with "blues" if it's mainly just 3-5 degrees below average. I've grown weary of the long strings of 10-20 degrees below average.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Today, 12:23 PM
Post #4732




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,441
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000'
Member No.: 21,746





Next system, if modeled correctly at all, comes out of the GOM - on or near a historic date for the top storm of all time on NESIS (SOTC 3/93). I remember that winter very well - the storms were small but semi frequent, the weather was cold that winter, but then warmed just a bit before the SOTC hit.

Not saying this is SOTCII - but just showing that even the most important storm of our life times (outside of maybe Katrina and Sandy) happened very late in winter - with "some" of the same conditions leading into that time period.


--------------------
#wintersrevengecontinues

Accu-Forums MidAtl/NE Champion Snowfall Forecaster 2015

IMBY Snow Ttl/Season: 47.75"/16 events = 2.98"/event
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Today, 05:58 PM
Post #4733




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,762
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(psu1313 @ Mar 6 2015, 07:42 AM) *
The 15th/16th threat is interesting because it's energy from the STJ meeting with energy diving out of Canada. With the NAO remaining positive, it's more likely an Apps runner but then again, i'm not putting anything past this winter. I'd say other than the mountains of WV and Maryland, below the Mason Dixon line is done for snow.

As far as your comment of below the Mason Dixon being done with snow was the same sort of comment(s) being tossed around on these here boards at about the same time last year, however my "snow shovel" begs to differ as it was put to work 2 times in March of last year (one of which being wellll past today's date in March) and again once in early April.

Not saying that will indeed be the case this time around, only the thoughts last year were the same that we were "done" with snow.....and well we know how that book ended wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

237 Pages V  « < 235 236 237
Reply to this topicStart new topic
8 User(s) are reading this topic (7 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
1 Members: Mid Tn. Man

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 6th March 2015 - 07:06 PM