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Rank: F5 Superstorm
18 years old
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Local Time: Mar 30 2017, 09:27 AM
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16 Oct 2015
OHweather, on 16 Oct 2015 - 3:32 PM, said:
Yeah, this is looking really interesting for a few places this weekend...
Off of Lake Superior, I'm thinking that winds changing through the event will keep accumulations under control. A little trough drops south across the Lake and should cause activity to intensify this evening...850mb temps of -8 to -10C and 925mb temps of -2 to -3C should easily support accums in the higher terrain. The activity may swing west towards MQT for a time tonight, and the more northerly flow for a few hours behind the trough should hit the higher terrain west of MQT for a time tonight. The winds go more NW by Saturday morning which should shift the bulk of the activity east of MQT. The winds never stop shifting completely so I think 1-3" in the higher terrain east of MQT in Alger county should about do it...maybe a half inch in the higher terrain west of MQT.
Off of Lake Michigan conditions become very favorable for decent lake effect this evening as the same trough drops through. Winds will initially be NNW which should hit areas between Traverse City and Gaylord, but will go more due N late tonight behind the trough which should shift things to just S and W of Traverse City. Winds start backing on Saturday to WNW and then whip around to the N again Saturday night as inversions start coming down...overall think maybe 1-2" in the higher terrain where the bands affect over the next two nights, winds look too variable for a band to sit and allow for better accumulations.
Off of Lake Huron I'm more intrigued...the winds look like they'll hardly move from late tonight through late Saturday afternoon with extreme lake induced instability (CAPE on the order of 1000 J/KG+ from around midnight tonight through very early Sunday), very high equilibrium levels (15-20k feet through early Sunday) and deep moisture with help from upstream lakes (high RH air to near or above 10k feet late tonight through very early Sunday) in place. The winds are well aligned and will have the full fetch of the lake to work with. A very intense band with thunder and lightning is likely downwind of Lake Huron this evening through Saturday night, with little movement possible through much of the day Saturday. The winds will be NW late tonight through Saturday which I'd have to imagine supports the heaviest band staying just north/east of London, but I'm not a Lake Huron band expert.
Saturday evening the winds initially gain a more westerly component ahead of an approaching trough which should push any band farther east and possibly weaken it some for a few hours. The winds become decently well aligned for a few hours out of the NW again late Saturday night into early Sunday before becoming more northerly and pushing everything west. Instability and moisture slowly wane during the day Sunday which should cause a slow end to things.
Potential accums are definitely tough...with 925mb temps of -1C to -2C tonight, well aligned winds in the boundary layer on the order of 20-30 knots (not too strong) and a likely very strong band, I fully expect dynamical cooling to change precip over to snow tonight under any strong band. Temps warm a tad during the day Saturday, but assuming a band continues, it should remain all snow under it (maybe the lakeshore tries changing to rain during the afternoon?). Heavy wet snow will accumulate despite wet ground. There could be a 12 hour period tonight into Saturday where the band moves very little off of the southern end of the lake, and that could produce 6-10". Things start moving around move Saturday evening through Sunday morning, but another 1-3" could fall on spots very early Sunday if the winds can stabilize for a few hours. This could be a pretty significant event with a lot of tree damage.
Off of Lake Erie temperatures are a bit too warm in NE Ohio to get accums with this type of weaker multi-banded setup...maybe the higher terrain in Geauga or inland Ashtabula can get half an inch. In NW PA and perhaps into Chautauqua County in SW NY, there is more terrain and likely will be heavier precip rates beneath a likely Huron-Erie connection. It will take until later tonight for temps to support accumulating snows in the higher terrains, but there should be a few hours of fairly steady banding in central/eastern portions of Erie/Crawford Counties in NW PA, with likely accums in the higher terrain with 925mb temps of near -1C and extreme lake induced instability and moisture from Lake Huron supporting a moderate to heavy band. Winds here also shift more WNW for a time Saturday afternoon/evening before going more NNW for a time Saturday night before going WNW again Sunday morning. Think the shifting winds and slightly warmer mid-level temps during the day Saturday will keep additional accums Saturday afternoon fairly light...maybe another inch in the higher terrain. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the winds become more steady again from the NW or WNW, there could be a period of some accums, again probably in eastern Erie/Crawford counties in NW PA perhaps into Chautauqua County NW and perhaps into parts of Venego/Forest/Warren Counties. Overall due to less persistent banding and more marginal temps here I think maybe 2-4" falls in the higher terrain. If a band persists for longer then maybe a local lolly to 6" is possible.
2 Aug 2015
Multiple rounds of severe storms with damaging winds are likely this afternoon and evening. Heads up.
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Current radar, as of 10:30 local, is showing storms developing in northern Michigan. These storms are moving southeast and will impact southwestern Ontario later today.
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First severe thunderstorm watch of the day in the states (time sensitive).
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From the NWS in Detroit
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From the SPC in Norman
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hailriskspcaug2.gif ( 26.33K ) Number of downloads: 0
tornadoriskspcaug2.gif ( 24.71K ) Number of downloads: 0
SPC AC 021256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN WI...NERN
IL...CENTRAL/SRN LM...LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...EXTREME NWRN OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING ENH RISK...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL
PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS NEBRASKA. THIS MAY INCLUDE ONE
OR TWO ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SWATHS OF
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TO LOWER MICHIGAN.
IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CONUS...CHARACTERIZED BY WRN RIDGING AND ERN
TROUGHING...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONE OVER NERN
PAC. STRONGEST PART OF CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH BIG
HUDSON BAY GYRE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT WILL
BACK DIRECTIONALLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER SRN MB --
AMPLIFIES AND MOVES SEWD. THAT PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH LS
AND NRN MN BY 00Z...MOVING TO LH...LOWER MI AND SRN WI BY 12Z. AS
THAT OCCURS...BOTH CURVATURE AND GRADIENT OF HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT WILL
TIGHTEN OVER THIS REGION...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF CONUS N OF ABOUT 37N AND FROM MID/UPPER MS VALLEY EWD.
AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED SFC LOW OVER ND/SD/MN BORDER
CONFLUENCE...WITH COLD FRONT ARCHING WSWWD THEN WNWWD OVER
CENTRAL/WRN SD AND SERN MT. WAVY WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ESEWD THROUGH
SECONDARY LOW OVER NWRN WI THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LM TO SRN LOWER
MI. WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SLGT/ENH-RISK AREAS TODAY
PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. BY 00Z COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/NRN
LOWER MI...SRN WI...WRN IA...CENTRAL NEB AND SERN WY. BY 12Z COLD
FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM SRN ONT ACROSS NRN INDIANA TO NRN KS AND ERN
CO...DECELERATING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.
...UPPER MIDWEST GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM FROM
UPPER MI AND LM WNWWD ACROSS NRN MN IN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE SFC. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD NEAR NRN
FRINGES OF OUTLOOK AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LATER DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE
SHIFT IN SVR POTENTIAL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1582 AND 1583
FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SVR SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION.
SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
INTO AFTN WITH SEWD EXTENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND DCVA AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOME BETTER JUXTAPOSED WITH DIABATICALLY
DESTABILIZING PARTS OF SFC WARM SECTOR NEAR SFC COLD FRONT. ASIDE
FROM FRONTAL FORCING...INTENSIFICATION OF ANY PERSISTENT ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION ALSO MAY OCCUR WHILE MOVING INTO THIS REGIME.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALSO MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR
SUPPORTIVE PREFRONTAL LIFT. MORNING MPX/ABR RAOBS SHOW
RESIDUAL/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND RELATED PLUME OF STEEP
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT FACTOR...IN TANDEM WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 60S F
AND LOCALLY NEAR 70...WILL LEAD TO PEAK AFTN MLCAPE RANGING FROM
AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER ERN LOWER MI TO 3500 J/KG NEAR MS RIVER PART
AS FOR KINEMATIC SUPPORT...DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THAT
PART OF WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO COLD FRONT...WITH 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING WITH SWWD AND
SEWD EXTENT. DESPITE SWLY-WLY SFC FLOW...VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL IMPART SUFFICIENT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR
RISK OF SUPERCELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY
DISCRETE. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND OFFER AT LEAST
TRANSIENT TORNADO RISK. EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE
ELONGATED/QUASI-LINEAR TSTM COMPLEXES IS EXPECTED INVOF FRONT...WITH
HAIL SIZE DIMINISHING AND WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING INTO THIS
EVENING. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD RAMP DOWNWARD LATE THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR COOLS/STABILIZES...THOUGH AT
LEAST ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
21 Jun 2015
Might as well start this now.
10 Jun 2015
4 Jun 2015
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