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> NE/ Mid-Atlantic Heat, Starting 6/15- ??
so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 8 2015, 09:30 AM
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Forgive me because I have not started a topic in quite some time so if needed please change around what needs to be changed. Im alos not sure if it is ok to post pro stuff on here but i posted one picture let me know if this ok as well.



But none the less we are about to get some heat coming our way. Above is from the 00z Euro showing a somewhat decent ridge trying to get going across the SE US and stretching up our way a bit. It is still almost a little less than a week out but we will get a taste of what may be coming by this thursday friday saturday period where some places may experience their first heat wave.

The GFS after this time period really wants to get the ridge strengthening after a few shortwaves run along the top of this. We may be on the battle grounds in this region between some cooler air and extreme heat but that is to be determined what is everyones thoughts on this?

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 8 2015, 09:31 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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bingobobbo
post Jun 9 2015, 06:52 PM
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My worst fears--I was hoping for our first cooler than average June since 2009, but this heatwave would almost guarantee yet another June with a positive departure from normal. June 2012 and 2013 were barely above average--but finished on the plus side because of warm June 30ths. If this month is warm, I fear that July and August will be as well.


--------------------
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 9 2015, 08:57 PM
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I posted this in the summer thread... I'll post here because why not.








--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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Undertakerson
post Jun 10 2015, 04:05 AM
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Imagine that - it's going to get hot as we approach astronomical Summer.

On a serious note, this does look to be a bit of a protracted scenario as the main branch of the jet takes a visit north of the US/Canadian border

- there is some hint of relief past D10 - as the waves attack the top of the ring of fire ridge structure - but whether that is phantom or not will remain to be seen.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 10 2015, 04:07 AM
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NorEaster07
post Jun 10 2015, 05:26 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 10 2015, 05:05 AM) *
Imagine that - it's going to get hot as we approach astronomical Summer.


Except we already got hot and had Summer in May. It's like we flipped this year. BDL had 17 days of 80+ in May. Most on record for that location. Summer in May

Actually... Late start to Winter (started January)
Late end to Winter (Ended in March)
Spring for 1 month
Early Start to Summer (started in May)

Coldest 1st week of June on record for some areas in Northeast

Latest NAM model says the heat lasts into the weekend for coastal plain. Dewpoints into the 70s up to Maine. Euro shows less widespread 70s but still looks summery next few days maybe a week.

80s are back which means 90s likely south of NYC,



Attached Image



Tomorrows max temp forecast from NWS.



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Undertakerson
post Jun 10 2015, 05:40 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 10 2015, 06:26 AM) *
Except we already got hot and had Summer in May. It's like we flipped this year. BDL had 17 days of 80+ in May. Most on record for that location. Summer in May

Actually... Late start to Winter (started January)
Late end to Winter (Ended in March)
Spring for 1 month
Early Start to Summer (started in May)

Coldest 1st week of June on record for some areas in Northeast

Latest NAM model says the heat lasts into the weekend for coastal plain. Dewpoints into the 70s up to Maine. Euro shows less widespread 70s but still looks summery next few days maybe a week.

80s are back which means 90s likely south of NYC,

Attached Image

Tomorrows max temp forecast from NWS.


Of course, I was being facetious with my comment. I posted (in the Spring thread) that May was KMDT's 2d warmest on record.

SWH's original post though is for next week - but certainly could have started at the end of this week. I would suggest that an edit to the date to start tomorrow, would not be met with any disapproval - S PA and south will approach HW criteria. CTP's 8D outlook has the lowest max in the lower to mid 80's with several days well above that yet.

Welcome back SER!

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 10 2015, 05:42 AM
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kpk33x
post Jun 10 2015, 08:27 AM
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I am thinking...hoping...that northern New England only gets a glancing blow with this torch scenario. Its not entirely wishful thinking.

#1 we look close enough (depending on which model) to the edge of the "ring of fire" that we might catch the thunderstorms/showers going around the edge. That would leave us with two days of warmth and then a day or two of showers/thunderstorms that would hold us in the 70s if not 60s.

#2 water temperatures off the coast of MA/NH/ME are still in the 50s. Any southerly flow is going to set off the sea breeze and keep coastal areas cooler. Its typically a few degrees warmer inland, but not 95 versus 75. If we kick into an easterly flow for any time it'll be cloudy/drizzly/60s if its June.

#3 climatologically it is very rare for a low temperature above 65 here, even during the hottest times in mid July. The day in 2011 when we suffered through 106 in Baltimore and PA it was 98/70 here which was the 3rd hottest day I could find since 2000 in the local records (only 7/4/02 at 99/73 and 8/10/01 with 100/72 were hotter). Very rarely is it 90+ for 3 days or longer. Mid August 2001 and late July 2001 both put together 5 days which must be miserable with no AC. (What was going on up here in the summer of 2001? That was a fairly cool summer in Maryland esp July)

Could we touch 90 for a day or two? Sure. Its not even incredibly unusual. But a dewpoint above 70 is VERY unusual and would really take a special situation to drive it up that high. I think the NAM is a bit overdone and we could get a streak of a week where 5-6 days out of 7 are 82-87 with lows 60-65 with a day or two thrown in there of 70s and showers. But not by Saturday, maybe later. NWS has us going no higher than 81 in the extended...and the weekend is low 70s with lows in the 50s. Ahhhhhh wink.gif

I really don't miss the extended heat waves, guys...enjoy down there in the south and keep it there! tongue.gif


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2 (through 5/17)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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kpk33x
post Jun 10 2015, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 10 2015, 06:26 AM) *
Except we already got hot and had Summer in May. It's like we flipped this year. BDL had 17 days of 80+ in May. Most on record for that location. Summer in May

Actually... Late start to Winter (started January)
Late end to Winter (Ended in March)
Spring for 1 month
Early Start to Summer (started in May)

Coldest 1st week of June on record for some areas in Northeast

Latest NAM model says the heat lasts into the weekend for coastal plain. Dewpoints into the 70s up to Maine. Euro shows less widespread 70s but still looks summery next few days maybe a week.

80s are back which means 90s likely south of NYC,

Attached Image

Tomorrows max temp forecast from NWS.



Departures here
Nov -2.2F
Dec +4.2F
Jan -3.3F
Feb -11.8F
Mar -6.3F
Apr -1.9F
May +4.8F

Around April 13 a switch was flipped and we went from much cooler than normal to nearly uniformly warmer than normal. And pretty dry. Until the first of June when we spent 2 days in the 40s (for HIGHS) and the faucet in the sky has been turned on.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2 (through 5/17)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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NorEaster07
post Jun 10 2015, 08:32 AM
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Couple of Disco's

NWS NY

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THU WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. A SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WITH HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL CT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER WATERS.


NWS Philly

QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE WEAK
TROUGHING PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE ZONAL FLOW LOOKS
LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...]THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF A FORECASTED HEAT WAVE
AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW-90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE TRUE CORE OF THE HEAT STILL REMAINS TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST
BUT
925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-20C RANGE.

THIS IS
ALL HAPPENING WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE, EVEN IN ITS WEAKENED
STATE, SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OCCURRING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS
OFFSHORE BUT WE BEGIN TO RELOAD ANY EXPELLED ENERGY/MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER,
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

FRIDAY COULD BE
THE MOST OPPRESSIVE DAY IN TERMS OF DEW POINTS
AS THEY SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S DURING THE PEAK
MIXING/AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL A BIT UNSURE IF WE HIT OUR HEAT
INDEX NUMBERS TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES
SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
IN THE HWO.

SATURDAY...MORE POTENT COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 10 2015, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 10 2015, 06:40 AM) *
Of course, I was being facetious with my comment. I posted (in the Spring thread) that May was KMDT's 2d warmest on record.

SWH's original post though is for next week - but certainly could have started at the end of this week. I would suggest that an edit to the date to start tomorrow, would not be met with any disapproval - S PA and south will approach HW criteria. CTP's 8D outlook has the lowest max in the lower to mid 80's with several days well above that yet.

Welcome back SER!


Yea there is a chance of a possible heat wave this week but not the greatest of chances. Areas south of the PA/MD border may have their chances but looking at the EURO today the ridge tries to build but with a continous battle from the north it may be hard for us to reach heat wave statusfor many area north of the PA/MD border as a battle ground of a stationary front looks to set up. Along the I-95 corridor in some of the hotter placesin the coastal plain it seems likely but also taking a look at the GFS it seems to think what heat ridge lol



Some heat with an advancement of a developing back-door cold front with scatter showers and storms.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 10 2015, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 10 2015, 05:05 AM) *
Imagine that - it's going to get hot as we approach astronomical Summer.

On a serious note, this does look to be a bit of a protracted scenario as the main branch of the jet takes a visit north of the US/Canadian border

- there is some hint of relief past D10 - as the waves attack the top of the ring of fire ridge structure - but whether that is phantom or not will remain to be seen.

Not surprised that (I assume) the GFS shows a pattern change just after hour 240. Seems like that's a barrier at which the GFS goes into lala land. Not to discount the idea of a quick end to the heat... but if that can make to hour 200 and has modest ensemble support, I'd be more conconvinced.

With regard to the ring of fire point that kp33kz brought up: being on the rim of the ring (thus, daily storms) doesn't offer protection from the heat. Trust me; I was on the rim in the summer of 2012. The ring brings persistent warmth and moisture from the south.. the storms come through, drop the temps by 10+ degrees, then the temps rebound. As long as you stay south of the stationary front, it's gonna stay hot


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 4/29/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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So Maine Snow
post Jun 10 2015, 12:20 PM
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Here in Maine backdoor coldfronts are our friend and can protect us from extended heat. It is amazing what the windshift does. Some of the sharpest termperature drops I've seen are from backdoor fronts. There is no extreme heat in any extended forecast currently so we might be able to escape this one. Bring on the backdoor coldfronts!
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Undertakerson
post Jun 10 2015, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 10 2015, 12:34 PM) *
Yea there is a chance of a possible heat wave this week but not the greatest of chances. Areas south of the PA/MD border may have their chances but looking at the EURO today the ridge tries to build but with a continous battle from the north it may be hard for us to reach heat wave statusfor many area north of the PA/MD border as a battle ground of a stationary front looks to set up. Along the I-95 corridor in some of the hotter placesin the coastal plain it seems likely but also taking a look at the GFS it seems to think what heat ridge lol



Some heat with an advancement of a developing back-door cold front with scatter showers and storms.

QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FRI-TUE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FAVOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED WITHIN PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE/PWATS POOLING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS
. STRONG
HEATING OF A MOIST BLYR/60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOCUS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE SFC
TROUGH. A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER LAKES SWD INTO CENTRAL PA
. SCT TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THE
WAVY/INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONT INVOF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE GEFS FCSTS A NOTABLE DROP IN PWATS SAT NGT-SUN BEFORE
ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWATS SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MCS TYPE COMPLEX MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY AT
THIS RANGE.


So, we are at D4 with respect to Saturday's front. I've mentioned many times, the GFS in particular, tends to rush things along then adjust slower by D2. I don't see this as any different - so the front (notice that it is already progg'd to be weakening) may not make it to most of the region until Sunday.

That gives us a three day potential of reaching HW - esp from 40N and points south (as you and the disco make mention)

The Euro really looks like it wants to shear the H5 levels strongly between Hr72 and 96 - allowing the SER to maintain more sway. ( I did not notice, on the Euro, the MCD potential CTP threw in as a side bar)

CTP point and click for my zone


QUOTE
Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.


Thursday

A slight chance of showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.


Friday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Friday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.


About as close as one can get to an official HW - Saturday would be the maker or breaker IF the Euro is more correct.

I'm not arguing your dates SWH - just making the case that any dent in the heat looks to be short lived, if at all. I say that while admitting I did not really see this coming - actually, I did see it but did not trust it in the LR GFS.
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MaineJay
post Jun 11 2015, 04:59 AM
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Low 80s yesterday, which felt rather warm. But like So Maine Snow said, backdoor cold fronts are always a possibility up here. And as kpk said, too much southerly wind component means sea breeze and heat waves are hard to come by up here, which is fine by me. smile.gif that said, it is nice to feel summer type weather.

GYX
QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH MORE SUN AND
BETTER MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH AN
OFFSHORE WIND EVEN COASTAL AREAS WILL GET IN ON THE WARMTH AS THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE UNABLE TO PENETRATE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
IS A LITTLE DRIER IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DRY... THUS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AT NIGHT IN SPITE OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST... A WARM FRONT WILL
SHARPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL BE A LOW CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AGAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME WILL HAVE SPREAD SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
BE UNDER THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE OCCLUSION FORECAST TO CROSS JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND AT
THIS TIME THAT INCLUDES THE NORTHERN NH MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
THUNDER BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN THE TIMING.

NORTH WINDS WILL PROMOTE DRYING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OOZING OUT OF CANADA AND THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY
MORNING LOOK DRY AND WARM. ANOTHER WAVE... THIS ONE LOOKING LESS
ORGANIZED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT... ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY MAKE UP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE OCCLUSION MOVES
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING EVEN MORE ZONAL THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Extended disco, near record heat at this time of year must be oppressive in the southeast, I don't envy that.
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

VALID 12Z SUN JUN 14 2015 - 12Z THU JUN 18 2015

*** NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK ***

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY INCREDIBLY STRONG RIDGING OVER
SW ALASKA STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALONG 30N IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN TIME ON
EITHER SIDE OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE LOWER LATITUDES.
THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT
THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER ALONG THE I-70/64
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN PARTS OF GA/SC WHICH
IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH VALUES
.
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE
RATHER STALLED SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER SUN-WED.
AREAS FROM N TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF MODEST RAINFALL.


...MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW
FROM THE UBER RIDGE IN ALASKA... BUT THAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
TRANSLATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVER-AMPLIFIED FLOW CAN LEAD TO
'STUCK' DOWNSTREAM FEATURES LIKE SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN.
THAT BEING SAID... THE 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A REASONABLE ENOUGH CONSENSUS THAT THEIR
BLEND WAS USED FOR SUN-TUE AS THE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE TRAILING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIAN COAST. THAT UPPER LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET DRAWN
EASTWARD AS HAS BEEN THE THINKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLIER
RUNS ALSO SHOWED THIS PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT
TOO LIKELY AS IT WILL BE FACING BUILDING HEIGHTS IN AT LEAST
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TRENDED TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WITH
A SLIGHT ECMWF WEIGHTING AS IT DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. A RATHER ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE CONUS
BY LATER NEXT WEEK PER THE ENSEMBLES.

IN THE EAST... MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT INTO OR PAST THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN-MON BUT BUILDING
RIDGING MAY WIN OUT... PERHAPS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE/WED OFF THE COAST AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TIMING DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE CONSENSUS IS A BIT QUICKER. THIS
TIES BACK TO THE 'LOST' UPPER LOW OFF BC AND GIVES CREDENCE TO THE
PREFERRED TREND TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.




FRACASSO

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd




--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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kpk33x
post Jun 11 2015, 07:42 AM
Post #15




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From: Intervale, NH
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I had to turn on the AC units last night for the first time this year (June 10!). No breeze and temperatures outside in the upper 60s kept it 75+ inside.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2 (through 5/17)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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Ryan Duff
post Jun 11 2015, 08:15 AM
Post #16




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HRRR going insane for central PA today. 99F at KMDT for both 3pm and 4pm. blink.gif

Forecast high of only 88F. We'll see which is closer to reality.


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M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)
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Ryan Duff
post Jun 11 2015, 08:17 AM
Post #17




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Quick note from CTP re: meso models as well...

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON CONVECTION TODAY...WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY. FIRST OFF...CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-TERM/MESO MODEL
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN TAINTED BY YESTERDAY/S QUESTIONABLE GUIDANCE
AS NOTED BY DAY AND EVENING SHIFTS. THEY SEEM TO BE DOING BETTER
HERE OVERNIGHT...ESP THE HI-RES ARW. SO...FOLLOWING THAT GUY DOWN
THE ROAD YIELDS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY.


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jun 11 2015, 10:27 AM
Post #18




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From: LANCASTER PA
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Already sitting at 84F imby as of 11:30 AM. Should surpass our first 90 degree day at this rate.


--------------------
-James
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psu1313
post Jun 11 2015, 10:51 AM
Post #19




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we've had a cloud deck around DC which has held things down a smidge. Temp is currently 83 with a dewpoint of 72. Hot, definitely a little humid but not unbearable just yet.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 11 2015, 11:51 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jun 11 2015, 09:15 AM) *
HRRR going insane for central PA today. 99F at KMDT for both 3pm and 4pm. blink.gif

Forecast high of only 88F. We'll see which is closer to reality.


Attached Image

Already up to 85 as of Noon - so somewhere in between would look like a reasonable call. Definitely looks like 90 is well within reach.

Looks like not enough cloud cover to mitigate the, now almost completely full, June sun angle.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis....php?sector=19#
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