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> April 2-4, 2018 MidAtl/NE Storm, Short Term Forecasts/Observations
Dating the storm
A vote on whether most would prefer a merge of the two wave thread
Yes - change dates to 4/2-3 [ 13 ] ** [22.41%]
No, one storm is one storm [ 3 ] ** [5.17%]
Why not discuss both back to back no need for 2 seperate [ 16 ] ** [27.59%]
I'm so over wintery storms so I don't care [ 6 ] ** [10.34%]
I don't care - it's all in fun. [ 20 ] ** [34.48%]
Total Votes: 58
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Undertakerson
post Mar 22 2018, 06:00 PM
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I say we need an "Onion Snow" before the "winter" season can truly end. I offer that this one is "it".

BSR


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12z MREF 3/22/18


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Obvious points - such storms do not favor most of MidAtl (for wintery side) unless time of day/event is just right. ATTM I think a MAX, if stars align, accum COULD be 6" atop the tulips somewhere. Such events have strong temp contrast and can spark random rumbles of thundersnow, which can be intense for brief periods. Other than that, rain or mix for many.

But this should favor MidAtl, by geographic consideration - IOW, the storm does hit from NC and North, but again, has a limited "white" side to it.

The GFS Op map seems to want to make more of it. I'm not buying just yet.

Looooooonnnnngggg way to go.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Apr 2 2018, 02:26 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 23 2018, 05:04 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 23 2018, 05:48 AM
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Kinda, sorta - closer to what I'd expect. Not some wound up Nor'easter, more of a moderate level threat that has some snow/some rain etc. A quick hitter with limited white potential - onion snow

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Undertakerson
post Mar 23 2018, 05:50 AM
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LOL - or maybe it's actually this one a day later. (?) laugh.gif laugh.gif

Point being, OS (Onion Snow) looking likely in this time pd.

I believe it to be the one on these dates. This next one - meh, I guess it might happen, but I doubt it.


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geeter1
post Mar 23 2018, 08:44 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 23 2018, 06:50 AM) *
LOL - or maybe it's actually this one a day later. (?) laugh.gif laugh.gif

Point being, OS (Onion Snow) looking likely in this time pd.

I believe it to be the one on these dates. This next one - meh, I guess it might happen, but I doubt it.


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No offense UTS, I know you are posting because of what you are showing, but
I would rather plant onions, than get the onion snow at this place in time. LOL laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 23 2018, 08:53 AM
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A little snow on the flowers can have some really nice curb appeal, just not toooo much snow tongue.gif
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colonel717
post Mar 23 2018, 10:12 AM
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Did someone say they wanted onion snow.... These are EURO members from the 3rd, 4th, 5th...Yea I know not likely to happen... Just some fun for spring..


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Undertakerson
post Mar 23 2018, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(colonel717 @ Mar 23 2018, 11:12 AM) *
Did someone say they wanted onion snow.... These are EURO members from the 3rd, 4th, 5th...Yea I know not likely to happen... Just some fun for spring..


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That would be a heck of an "onion snow" LOL

Who knows, maybe the order WILL be "heavy on the onions" laugh.gif laugh.gif
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LUCC
post Mar 23 2018, 12:06 PM
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Please just make it stop!!!! sad.gif


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Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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jdrenken
post Mar 23 2018, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(colonel717 @ Mar 23 2018, 10:12 AM) *
Did someone say they wanted onion snow.... These are EURO members from the 3rd, 4th, 5th...Yea I know not likely to happen... Just some fun for spring..


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Nobody uses snowdepth charts. wink.gif


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Undertakerson
post Mar 23 2018, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Mar 23 2018, 01:06 PM) *
Please just make it stop!!!! sad.gif



QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 23 2018, 02:02 PM) *
Nobody uses snowdepth charts. wink.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Suddenly - few want solution MREF P002 or P005 for that matter (and P003 brings winter to the far interior)- and hope its just a goofy outlier as the other members suggest

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Undertakerson
post Mar 23 2018, 03:12 PM
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Though one can see how ol P002 pulls that off - just a bit of imagination from the Euro Op is all it takes.

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This set up - the day prior. You can see the gathering energy off the SE coast and it is "drifting" towards the NW in the prior two frames. The trough is slinging in from out west.

Question is - does the energy at mid-lat, decide to join the departing storm from 4/1-2, or does it slow and wait for a union with that Atl piece - or something in between.

No doubt a progressive flow means a quick hitter - so this is not a monster set up - but it just may be the "last" hurrah for many to the south of Middle NE
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USCG AST
post Mar 24 2018, 12:32 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 22 2018, 07:00 PM) *
I say we need an "Onion Snow" before the "winter" season can truly end. I offer that this one is "it".

BSR


Attached Image


GFS


Attached Image


12z MREF 3/22/18


Attached Image


Spags


Attached Image


Obvious points - such storms do not favor most of MidAtl (for wintery side) unless time of day/event is just right. ATTM I think a MAX, if stars align, accum COULD be 6" atop the tulips somewhere. Such events have strong temp contrast and can spark random rumbles of thundersnow, which can be intense for brief periods. Other than that, rain or mix for many.

But this should favor MidAtl, by geographic consideration - IOW, the storm does hit from NC and North, but again, has a limited "white" side to it.

The GFS Op map seems to want to make more of it. I'm not buying just yet.

Looooooonnnnngggg way to go.


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Undertakerson
post Mar 24 2018, 01:52 PM
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USCG AST
post Mar 24 2018, 03:08 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 24 2018, 02:52 PM) *

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Did you not read above.... ^^^


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Undertakerson
post Mar 24 2018, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Mar 24 2018, 04:08 PM) *
Did you not read above.... ^^^

I don't know nuthin bout no redin - Ima only here to post purdy pichures. tongue.gif
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USCG AST
post Mar 24 2018, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 24 2018, 04:24 PM) *
I don't know nuthin bout no redin - Ima only here to post purdy pichures. tongue.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif blink.gif

For the record. The h5 evolution does look interesting. It's a shame this pattern did not come in jan-feb. We would have set a plethora of records. What is more interesting, and I will have to do some research, is the question of if this particular pattern would have been possible in late Jan and early February. Less solar radiation, thereby less energy... Would four rather strong nor Easters have been possible? Eh. I'm thinking out loud now. And rambling.


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Undertakerson
post Mar 25 2018, 05:48 AM
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More "Purdy Picshures"

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Undertakerson
post Mar 25 2018, 12:59 PM
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Pudry pichures

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Undertakerson
post Mar 25 2018, 01:07 PM
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CMC has its own idea

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