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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:31 PM


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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Mar 29 2017, 04:18 PM) *
Lately Ukie has not been as accurate as it had been IMHO

I guess you're entitled to your opinion - but it handled the 3/14 event rather well, while the GFS Euro were still struggling.

Your statement also depends on how much lead time you're talking about. But last stats I saw, show it to have been doing rather well comparatively.

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91% only second to Euro at 92%


At H5 it looks to be top dog during storm periods.
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224134 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:11 PM


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12z UKIE

Hits the MidAtl and the NE benchmarks - of course, for MidAtl that only means rain as the cold air is not nearly close enough.
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It also shows a near identical repeat for the 4-5 system

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It does not go out to the dates for the other thread I created.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224126 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:05 PM


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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Mar 29 2017, 03:53 PM) *
KALB says to expect.....weather!

laugh.gif laugh.gif

I do like that they pick up on Nor and my convo yesterday about the saturation of the column resulting in isothermal reaction (cold air drawn down through the storm via the deep moisture transport within the column)

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224125 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:03 PM


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12z Euro not as "deep" (thickness wise) of the cold, but still a very powerful storm that is multiphased (looks like two though, not three) at the coast. 850's down into TNNC/ N. SC!

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Verbatim, could be wintery precip down the W side of the Apps

But at this juncture all that matters is that an important and phased storm is looming.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224123 · Replies: · Views: 448

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:01 PM


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For clarity sake, I did bump the start date back - until the 4/6 time pd.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224122 · Replies: · Views: 448

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 02:59 PM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 29 2017, 01:13 PM) *
I think GYX is alluding to the 4-5th event which UT references above...still a meteorological marathon to go to reach this storm but if confluence over the NE persists, this could be an interesting first week of April.
For S&G...anybody have the 0z Euro snow total out to 240?

After having read the GYX disco, I'm inclined to believe they are referencing the mid week event. Maybe I should tweak my dates because the event I'm speaking about is nearer the 8th - GFS (yesterday) had the precip entering the MidAtl nearer the 5th though with the system hanging around a bit until it finally got going.

All kinds of confusion as we enter, yet again, another extremely active time frame.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224121 · Replies: · Views: 448

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 11:38 AM


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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Mar 29 2017, 12:22 PM) *
GYX discussion alluded to a "possible repeat" of the 3/31-4/1 event, although a warmer solution. Really can't zero in on this one until Sunday when the coast is clear.

Do they call these "onion snows" because of snow falling on onions or it making some people cry? (Not me! This would equal April skiing!)

C'mon KPK, you lived down here long enough to know the answer to that. (j/k) It is the former, although some say it is the snow after which it is safe to plant your garden and onions are among the first things one would plant in a garden.

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2015/05/...-an-onion-snow/

As for this event, we also have to clear the one before this one (there is no open thread for that event, at present)

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224089 · Replies: · Views: 448

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:48 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 29 2017, 06:39 AM) *
Obviously things aren't the same, but 20 years ago

[attachment=324737:040100.png]

IIRC we got about 4-5" of snow to top the Tulips that year.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224038 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:16 AM


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Attached Image


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml#page=ovw
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224034 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:59 AM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224031 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:40 AM


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QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 290808
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
408 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air will overspread Pennsylvania today and
Thursday as high pressure builds southward from southern
Canada. A new storm system will approach the region on Thursday,
bringing showery conditions Thursday night through Saturday.
Cooler and unsettled conditions will last into Sunday, with
scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers possible
.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224028 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:25 AM


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I've been watching this time period since I first noticed this outlook on the OPC maps

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It's starting to get within reasonable range to pay even more attention.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224025 · Replies: · Views: 448

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:15 AM


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I most likely will be making a thread for the 4/5-4/8 time pd.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224022 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:14 AM


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I'll even go off topic to do so.

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unsure.gif

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224021 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 03:13 AM


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Just trying to bury the last post by Sux - really dude? mad.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224020 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 02:55 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 25 2017, 07:06 AM) *
Going to be looking into the below, very closely, in the coming days.

[attachment=324538:P_96hrsfc.gif]

That big of a "rock in the stream" should manifest itself in some important fashion - once translated to the E.

At first blush, I would hazard it would be harbinger of very cool/unsettled conditions, E of the MS at the end of the 1st week of April. Onion snow potential? I think that's quite possible.

The big rock is starting to make a splash in the overnight modeling

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ohmy.gif

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2224019 · Replies: · Views: 35,443

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:11 PM


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CTP

QUOTE
12Z GFS/EC and their respective ensembles are in good agreement
with the onset timing of warm frontal rain that streaks quickly
east from the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.

Evaporational/dynamic cooling of the airmass helps 925-850 mb
temps dip to around or slightly below 0C across our NE counties
Thursday night and Friday as the steadier light-mdtly heavy,
Warm Advection rain begins there. Included mention of a
rain/sleet and snow mix to the North and East of a KIPT and KSEG
line (mainly across elevations AOA 1800 ft msl, where even a
light coating of snow/sleet is possible by daybreak Friday).
There`s a low prob for a light coating of snow on the high
terrain across Sullivan County.

Model consensus is also for a quasi Miller-B type of low track
heading just north of the Ohio River during the day Friday,
then a pressure jump and slight intensification of the sfc low
(to 996 mb) off the southern NJ and New England Coast Saturday
.

Under normally colder winter-time circumstances, this low track
would be pretty favorable for a significant snowfall across
much of central and northern PA. However, a quite warm boundary
layer (and 850 mb temps) to begin with, coupled with the lack
of a stronger anchoring high over southeast Canada and New
England will mean a widespread/soaking rain evening with 24-36
hour rainfall at the majority of places here in Central PA
coming in between 0.75-1.00 inch.

This rainfall will add a healthy spike to the flow and levels on
smaller streams and creeks across the region with broader mdt
rises on rivers, but no significant threat for flooding as
headwater flash flood guidance is averaging 2-2.5 inches for a
12 and 24 hour period respectively.

Periods of light rain, drizzle, and ridge shrouding dense fog
will persist Friday night into Saturday as slightly colder air
wraps around behind the storm. Some breaks in the cloud cover
should occur Saturday afternoon, esp across the Lower Susq
Valley where drying downslope flow will be enhanced. Forecast
temps Friday may be a bit warm considering the aforementioned
storm track just to our south, and amount of rain expected.

Max temps Saturday will near to a few deg F above normal in
many locations.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223962 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:31 PM


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Just to add the mention from the Watertown AFD, that the Euro is actually the warmest of the global set.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223949 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:29 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 28 2017, 04:23 PM) *
One of those "it happens" posts. Lol. Thicknesses are just an average of the temp between entire layer. I'd rather look at the temps themselves at 10m, 925mb, 850mb. If column is thickly saturated you just need 2000-5000' cold enough with heavy rates in Spring. I've seen 550 thickness and snow but I will have to dig to prove that.

In fact, I found the 1000-850 thickness maps better than 1000-500 and kinda makes sense.
Nice! Congrats. Welcome to the CoCo club. I assume you have the gauge?

Yeah - pretty much what I was (trying to) say. Rates can overcome the thermal profile of the boundary layer and allow for accumulation. We saw that in spades in the October 2011 event (6.5" fell) where low levels were barely below freezing (in fact, it started accumulating with my IMBY unit reading 34F)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223948 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:25 PM


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QUOTE(joeman @ Mar 28 2017, 02:59 PM) *
FRI 3/31

41 /36
Cloudy and cooler; p.m. rain
Hist. Avg.
52/30

SAT 4/1

47 /35
A little rain in the morning
Hist. Avg.
53/30

SUN 4/2

54 /38
Milder with clouds and sun
Hist. Avg.
53/31

MON 4/3

57 /37
Mostly sunny
Hist.

I don't know where that comes from (Accu maybe?) but here's what your NWS office has to say
QUOTE
This all changes Thursday night into Friday as storm system
currently tracking across the four-corners region approaches the
Ohio Valley region. Impressive moisture transport from the Gulf of
Mexico and isentropic lift commences Thursday night into Friday
morning. Thermal profiles along with low level ageostrophic flow
from the northeast should keep temperatures mainly cold enough for
light snow to evolve from southwest to northeast overnight into the
Friday morning commute. QPF from the global models are a bit high
with values approaching half an inch by late Friday morning.
Assuming this falls as mainly snow, several inches of accumulation
are possible before a transition to rain occurs Friday afternoon.
However, thermal profiles differ with respect to the
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian from warm to cold, respectfully. Then
differences become more apparent as the Canadian is the slowest with
the departure of this system Friday night with the ECMWF the most
progressive. We followed a blended approach from WPC and model-
blends.

QUOTE
Thursday Night
A chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
Snow likely before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and 5pm, then rain, snow, and sleet after 5pm. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday Night
Rain showers, snow, and sleet, becoming all rain after 8pm. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?l...82#.WNrG6IWcGUl
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223946 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:01 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 28 2017, 02:38 PM) *
Euro12z 10:1 ratios. Gonna be cement snow for many (8:1 or less)

[attachment=324677:Euro40.jpg]

That's pretty impressive (or maybe ambitious) because the thickness values are not all that steeped in the cold (they are above 540) - the 850's certainly are though. Indicates to me that, as per the Euro, the rates would have to overcome boundary layer issues in order to accumulate to that extent.

So, I would imagine that elevation areas would have the most impact, and "low landers" would struggle to see much beyond the typically cooler surfaces getting any decent accumulation.

Interestingly, the models seem to have swayed back to the south a good bit (for track) more in line with yesterday's 12z - but even there, the UKIE seems to be even further S with the track.

Should that continue, there may be some "surprises" for the NEPA, NNJ folks.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223941 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:18 AM


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QUOTE(JohnDoe @ Mar 27 2017, 09:50 PM) *
Here outside DC, it never occurred to me that we were in a drought. Not for a second. Things are green, lakes and streams seem normal enough. I'm a bit puzzled at how they calculate these things honestly.

Well - it's actually spelled out right there, in plain English

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223878 · Replies: · Views: 35,303

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:22 AM


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But mostly a whole lotta rain

QUOTE
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/POTENTIAL HAZARDS...

SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST FRI INTO SAT WILL BRING A BROAD SHIELD
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF MDT-HVY RNFL
ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR. EXTREME
NRN AREAS MAY SEE SOME WINTRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM
. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS THAT THE UPR LOW FCST TO DROP
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF LOW LVL
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GENERATE A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW/LOWER ELEV RAIN
FOCUSED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. AS HGT
FALLS PROGRESS EWD EXPECT LOW LVL GULF INFLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY HVY/STRONG CONVECTIVE EVENT FROM THE
SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD DURING SUN-TUE. CURRENTLY THERE IS DECENT
PROBABILITY OF A HVY RAIN THREAT WHILE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION ARE
MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE SPREAD OF SOLNS FOR TIMING/TRACK OF
THE UPR LOW. UPSTREAM ENERGY FLOWING INTO THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEV SNOW FROM THE PAC NW
EWD/SEWD, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY/AREAL
COVERAGE.


QUOTE
GUIDANCE IS STILL FLUCTUATING FROM RUN TO RUN FOR THE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE EAST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, LIKELY REFLECTING THE
SENSITIVE NATURE OF MID LVL EVOLUTION WITH SMALL DIFFS IN STREAM
PHASING AFFECTING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
. IN GENERAL THE PAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD A LESS PHASED
SCENARIO ALOFT LEADING TO A MODEST SWD NUDGE IN THE CONSENSUS SFC
LOW TRACK. SOME GFS RUNS HAVE APPEARED A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE
SWD TRACK. HOWEVER RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FARTHER REMOVED
FROM LATEST CONSENSUS, ON THE MORE PHASED SIDE LEADING TO A
FASTER/NWD SYSTEM. T
HE 00Z GFS HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED FARTHER SWD
VS 12Z/18Z RUNS INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE CONVERGING TOWARD CONSENSUS
OFFSHORE.


http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion...php?disc=pmdepd
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223875 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:18 AM


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Some "winter" precip in there - somewhere

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Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:07 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Overnight modeling seems to have shifted slightly N of yesterdays' averaged track. Still looks to slip in S of the Mason Dixon though.

UKIE


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223873 · Replies: · Views: 3,161

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