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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 23 2017, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 22 2017, 06:30 PM) *
Oops. Here's the OLR for the same time frame. Looks like the image I mistakenly posted got corrupted.



@STL... yes, I know CPC goes by the SSTs. But I was talking about the atmospheric response to it. And valid point about the lagging forcing... however, we're more than 3 months past the peak of the Nina, and we're seeing the strongest forcing so far. Sooo....

Careful with your terminology, the strongest forcing was more than 3 months ago associated with the peak of La Nina. An atmospheric ENSO index doesn't represent forcing, it represents response to forcing.

The chart you posted also shows the strongest observed response around the 3rd week of January and the lower index values you are referring to are a Euro forecast that may or may not verify.

March is frequently referred to as the predictability barrier associated with ENSO and it's extratropical atmospheric response such that any weirdness that occurs this month (assuming Euro verifies) would represent a last gasp of Nina and is quite unlikely to persist into/through April.

There's already a strong signal in 500 mb heights and recent precipitation anomalies that a ridge is building across the SW US ...
Attached File(s)
Attached File  3_23_Mar_500_mb_anom.gif ( 16.76K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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kpk33x
post Mar 24 2017, 08:15 AM
Post #62




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So I read somewhere about the 2017-18 possibly developing a weak Nino. Its still way early on calling that, but I am just waiting for the 2009-10 analogs to begin.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 18" (thru 3/15)
Season Total to date - 121.25" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Mar 24 2017, 09:15 AM) *
So I read somewhere about the 2017-18 possibly developing a weak Nino. Its still way early on calling that, but I am just waiting for the 2009-10 analogs to begin.

From Monday's CPC discussion:
QUOTE
ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niņo development into
the fall.*


Anybody publicly picking the 09-10 analog is publicly stating their cold/snow bias, because that is just an absurd choice.

If somebody is going to start picking analogs based on ENSO phase alone, then their search needs to begin with identifying a similarly strong El Nino to the 15-16 event. Then look for a weak Nina followed by a Nino.

In the modern observational era this severely cuts down the number of available analogs and my pick for the time being is the 1986-87 season, but the 99-2000 sticks out as well due to how well this past season followed the 98-99 analog. Seasonal averages shown below:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  3_24_17_18_Analog1.gif ( 16.96K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  3_24_17_18_Analog.gif ( 15.04K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 24 2017, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 24 2017, 12:12 PM) *
From Monday's CPC discussion:
Anybody publicly picking the 09-10 analog is publicly stating their cold/snow bias, because that is just an absurd choice.

If somebody is going to start picking analogs based on ENSO phase alone, then their search needs to begin with identifying a similarly strong El Nino to the 15-16 event. Then look for a weak Nina followed by a Nino.

In the modern observational era this severely cuts down the number of available analogs and my pick for the time being is the 1986-87 season, but the 99-2000 sticks out as well due to how well this past season followed the 98-99 analog. Seasonal averages shown below:

FWIW, snowfall statistics from Missouri 1986-87 indicate January is the month for me to watch (20"+ in StL and Columbia, assuming I'm in Missouri) with the other months being practically snowless.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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stuffradio
post Mar 24 2017, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 24 2017, 09:12 AM) *
From Monday's CPC discussion:
Anybody publicly picking the 09-10 analog is publicly stating their cold/snow bias, because that is just an absurd choice.

If somebody is going to start picking analogs based on ENSO phase alone, then their search needs to begin with identifying a similarly strong El Nino to the 15-16 event. Then look for a weak Nina followed by a Nino.

In the modern observational era this severely cuts down the number of available analogs and my pick for the time being is the 1986-87 season, but the 99-2000 sticks out as well due to how well this past season followed the 98-99 analog. Seasonal averages shown below:

The 2009-10 year gave me beautiful February weather with temps in the upper 50's during the Olympics here in Vancouver and Whistler. I would love for that to happen again. There were some cold snaps too, just not much snow as we were mocked by the international media for having a winter Olympics without snow.
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 07:15 PM
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He replies 8 times under this message.

1 thing he says is

"(6/) 1983 and 1998 both also brought catastrophic flooding to #Peru and look at the ocean warmth. Both were El Niņo years..."

"(7/) But El Niņo officially ended last summer. It's been either weak La Niņa or neutral since. So what gives?"

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/846412535897174016

Attached File  Screenshot_20170327_201307.png ( 992K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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