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> Long Range Winter 2010/2011 Outlooks, All Winter Questions Here - Nov-Mar
stuffradio
post May 21 2010, 12:36 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 20 2010, 05:50 PM) *
I also find it impressive how fast the El Nino collapsed, in fact I'm starting to think that at least a moderate La Nina may become more likely. If we do get an official La Nina, the question is how strong it gets, and how long it lasts.
That is also what I usually use to determine El Nino/La Nina intensities.


If it gets into La Nina stage, we might actually be able to use all the snow removal equipment that was purchased for the 2010 Winter Olympics! lol
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snowgeek93
post May 22 2010, 07:11 AM
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What kind of winters do southern ontario get during the different la nina stages? The winter of 2007-2008 was a moderate strength one and Toronto got close to 200cm of snow that year. Could it happen again?
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wx140
post May 22 2010, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ May 22 2010, 08:11 AM) *
What kind of winters do southern ontario get during the different la nina stages? The winter of 2007-2008 was a moderate strength one and Toronto got close to 200cm of snow that year. Could it happen again?

La ninas are different.We were fortunate that winter that the SE ridge wasn't too strong to force the storm track north of us and give us rain and warm temps. But next winter should be better than this past winter rolleyes.gif
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futureweatherman...
post May 22 2010, 08:14 AM
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There is talk on Eastern that the CFS transitions way to quickly going from strong/moderate El Nino. This is all speculation, but idk.


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(wx140 @ May 22 2010, 09:03 AM) *
La ninas are different.We were fortunate that winter that the SE ridge wasn't too strong to force the storm track north of us and give us rain and warm temps. But next winter should be better than this past winter rolleyes.gif


Right now, I'd say there is a 95% chance that this coming winter will feature more snow than last. laugh.gif
Not saying much as last winter was the second least snowiest winter ever!... recorded at Pearson that is. wink.gif rolleyes.gif


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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 11:57 AM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ May 22 2010, 09:14 AM) *
There is talk on Eastern that the CFS transitions way to quickly going from strong/moderate El Nino. This is all speculation, but idk.


I am not sure, but here are my updated probs (thinking) which I posted on the Candian side of the forums laugh.gif :

I would say that the best analogue right now for next winter is 66-67 as it keeps appearing through professionals and others on the U.S. thread. The other three mentioned in IRI's latest update are possible as well with 58-59 probably being the next likeliest analogue after 66-67.
Next, I would like to update my personal probs for the December January February trimonthly.

Weak El Nino conditions(trimonthlies of between +0.5 to +1.0):5%
Positive Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between 0.0to +0.5):20%
Negative Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between -0.5 to 0.0): 30-35%
Weak La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.0 to -0.5): 30%
Moderate La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.5 to -1.0):10%
Strong La Nina conditions(trimonthlies greater less than -1.5): 0-5%

Therefore, I am still leaning towards either negative-neutral or weak La Nina conditions, however if things pan out well enough in terms of the strengthening of the La Nina, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least moderate at some time within the next 5-7 months, however there is still lots of time to go until then!

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: May 22 2010, 11:57 AM


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futureweatherman...
post May 22 2010, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ May 22 2010, 12:57 PM) *
I am not sure, but here are my updated probs (thinking) which I posted on the Candian side of the forums laugh.gif :

I would say that the best analogue right now for next winter is 66-67 as it keeps appearing through professionals and others on the U.S. thread. The other three mentioned in IRI's latest update are possible as well with 58-59 probably being the next likeliest analogue after 66-67.
Next, I would like to update my personal probs for the December January February trimonthly.

66-67 may be one of the better ones out there... that may be slightly biased because we got a ridiculous amount of snow that year, but WeatherJunkie and a few others are using it.

As far as short term ENSO goes, the rapid decline will start to wane down as SOI is starting to drop, with an MJO staying away from phases 2/3/4 for the next couple of weeks. We're still going to be negative- but weeklies over the next few weeks or month should be similar if not a bit higher.


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ May 22 2010, 01:12 PM) *
66-67 may be one of the better ones out there... that may be slightly biased because we got a ridiculous amount of snow that year, but WeatherJunkie and a few others are using it.

As far as short term ENSO goes, the rapid decline will start to wane down as SOI is starting to drop, with an MJO staying away from phases 2/3/4 for the next couple of weeks. We're still going to be negative- but weeklies over the next few weeks or month should be similar if not a bit higher.


Agreed. wink.gif


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okie333
post May 22 2010, 12:47 PM
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I've found 5 analogs for next winter based on the NINO 3.4 Peak/DJF values and the JFM AO: 58-59, 66-67, 69-70, 77-78, and 87-88. This was based on every El Niņo that had an AO -1.0 or lower.


Winter...Peak 3.4...DJF 3.4...JFM AO...Modoki?
09-10.......1.8.......1.7......-1.9......YES
57-58.......1.7.......1.7......-1.5......YES
65-66.......1.6.......1.2......-1.4......YES
68-69.......1.0.......1.0......-2.0......YES
76-77.......0.8.......0.6......-1.3......NO
86-87.......1.3.......1.2......-1.0......YES


58-59: Pros: Best match by far; even the graph of the trimonthly Niņo progression matches up closely. Cons: None, except AO was slightly higher 57-58 than in 09-10.

66-67: Pros: Good Niņo and AO match. Cons: AO slightly higher 65-66, Niņo progression timetable does not match much at all.

69-70: Pros: Best AO match, OK Niņo match. Cons: Niņo not nearly as strong.

77-78: Pros: AO matches fairly well. Cons: Worst match of the bunch. Niņo was very weak and not a Modoki, and AO was a bit on the high side.

87-88: Pros: Good Niņo match, OK AO match. Cons: AO not as good of a match: only down to -1.0.

This post has been edited by okie333: May 22 2010, 12:49 PM


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InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period)
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PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles)
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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(okie333 @ May 22 2010, 01:47 PM) *
I've found 5 analogs for next winter based on the NINO 3.4 Peak/DJF values and the JFM AO: 58-59, 66-67, 69-70, 77-78, and 87-88. This was based on every El Niņo that had an AO -1.0 or lower.
Winter...Peak 3.4...DJF 3.4...JFM AO...Modoki?
09-10.......1.8.......1.7......-1.9......YES
57-58.......1.7.......1.7......-1.5......YES
65-66.......1.6.......1.2......-1.4......YES
68-69.......1.0.......1.0......-2.0......YES
76-77.......0.8.......0.6......-1.3......NO
86-87.......1.3.......1.2......-1.0......YES


58-59: Pros: Best match by far; even the graph of the trimonthly Niņo progression matches up closely. Cons: None, except AO was slightly higher 57-58 than in 09-10.

66-67: Pros: Good Niņo and AO match. Cons: AO slightly higher 65-66, Niņo progression timetable does not match much at all.

69-70: Pros: Best AO match, OK Niņo match. Cons: Niņo not nearly as strong.

77-78: Pros: AO matches fairly well. Cons: Worst match of the bunch. Niņo was very weak and not a Modoki, and AO was a bit on the high side.

87-88: Pros: Good Niņo match, OK AO match. Cons: AO not as good of a match: only down to -1.0.


Excellent analysis, I must say. Would you mind if I posted this on the Candian forum for 2010-11 winter? Again, I am very impressed; good data and good work! wink.gif


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okie333
post May 22 2010, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ May 22 2010, 12:53 PM) *
Excellent analysis, I must say. Would you mind if I posted this on the Candian forum for 2010-11 winter? Again, I am very impressed; good data and good work! wink.gif


I am very impressed, too. I looked at the Tulsa data for those analogs, and 3 of the 5 are in the top 10 for snow since 1950 (that is, the top sixth of the data). In addition, of the winters FOLLOWING the analogs, 4 of the 5 are in the top 10. That is, statistically there is a 92% chance that one of the two next winters will be a top-10 for Tulsa, and 48% chance that BOTH will be. Also, of all those 10 years (next year's analogs and the years after them), only 1 had a positive DJF anomaly, and that one was only 0.3 degrees above average. Two of the 10 were the two coldest winters ever. In every case the analog year was colder than the year before ("year before" being the 09-10 representative), and in all but one case it was snowier. In all but one case the winter AFTER the analog was colder and snowier than the year before the analog. Considering 2009-2010 was one of the coldest, snowiest winters in Tulsa, I can only imagine what 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 will be like. smile.gif

Oh, and feel free to post my analysis anywhere you want to, as long as you provide credit with a link.

This post has been edited by okie333: May 22 2010, 06:56 PM


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InstantWeatherMaps (GFS, NAM, RUC, fast ECMWF... Best free weather site period)
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PSU eWall (Everything else... great site for ensembles)
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NYCSuburbs
post May 22 2010, 01:35 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ May 22 2010, 12:54 PM) *
Right now, I'd say there is a 95% chance that this coming winter will feature more snow than last. laugh.gif
Not saying much as last winter was the second least snowiest winter ever!... recorded at Pearson that is. wink.gif rolleyes.gif

Around here, I'd give a 100% chance that next winter features less snow than the last laugh.gif
I think that your area should do better next winter. Whether it's a neutral or La Nina, there should be more snow in Toronto than this winter.

QUOTE(Torontoweather @ May 22 2010, 12:57 PM) *
I am not sure, but here are my updated probs (thinking) which I posted on the Candian side of the forums laugh.gif :

I would say that the best analogue right now for next winter is 66-67 as it keeps appearing through professionals and others on the U.S. thread. The other three mentioned in IRI's latest update are possible as well with 58-59 probably being the next likeliest analogue after 66-67.
Next, I would like to update my personal probs for the December January February trimonthly.

Weak El Nino conditions(trimonthlies of between +0.5 to +1.0):5%
Positive Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between 0.0to +0.5):20%
Negative Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between -0.5 to 0.0): 30-35%
Weak La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.0 to -0.5): 30%
Moderate La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.5 to -1.0):10%
Strong La Nina conditions(trimonthlies greater less than -1.5): 0-5%

Therefore, I am still leaning towards either negative-neutral or weak La Nina conditions, however if things pan out well enough in terms of the strengthening of the La Nina, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least moderate at some time within the next 5-7 months, however there is still lots of time to go until then!

Here is where I would put my thoughts at this time:

Weak El Nino conditions(trimonthlies of between +0.5 to +1.0):2%
Positive Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between 0.0to +0.5):5%
Negative Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between -0.5 to 0.0): 20%
Weak La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.0 to -0.5): 40%
Moderate La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.5 to -1.0): 25%
Strong La Nina conditions(trimonthlies greater less than -1.5): 8%
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post May 22 2010, 02:02 PM
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I woke up to an interesting comment posted by Pro met Stormchaser Chuck


QUOTE
Anyone want to bet that Nino 3.4 is positive again by September?


Source
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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 22 2010, 02:35 PM) *
Around here, I'd give a 100% chance that next winter features less snow than the last laugh.gif
I think that your area should do better next winter. Whether it's a neutral or La Nina, there should be more snow in Toronto than this winter.
Here is where I would put my thoughts at this time:

Weak El Nino conditions(trimonthlies of between +0.5 to +1.0):2%
Positive Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between 0.0to +0.5):5%
Negative Neutral conditions(trimonthlies of between -0.5 to 0.0): 20%
Weak La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.0 to -0.5): 40%
Moderate La Nina conditions(trimonthlies of between -1.5 to -1.0): 25%
Strong La Nina conditions(trimonthlies greater less than -1.5): 8%


Interesting. You are going with the La Nina side of things more or less. IMO, I think it is too early to tell at all, which is why I am staying more in neutral or weak La Nina. wink.gif


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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ May 22 2010, 03:02 PM) *
I woke up to an interesting comment posted by Pro met Stormchaser Chuck
Source


I'm going to guess that region 3.4 will not be in positive territory by September 2010. However given the high ONI right now it will take a few months of weekly and monthly negative numbers in region 3.4 to get the ONI into neutral conditions and then negative conditions; officially that is. wink.gif


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post May 22 2010, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ May 22 2010, 02:11 PM) *
I'm going to guess that region 3.4 will not be in positive territory by September 2010. However given the high ONI right now it will take a few months of weekly and monthly negative numbers in region 3.4 to get the ONI into neutral conditions and then negative conditions; officially that is. wink.gif

Hes using September as a safe call

He actually feels it will be positive by the end of July...

QUOTE
we'll probably be back to positive sometime in July. September is just the safer call.


Hes going to have a full write up sometime on Sunday!

Quote from same source as above!

This post has been edited by AtownWxWatcher: May 22 2010, 02:16 PM
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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(okie333 @ May 22 2010, 02:34 PM) *
I am very impressed, too. I looked at the Tulsa data for those analogs, and 3 of the 5 are in the top 10 for snow since 1950 (that is, the top sixth of the data). In addition, of the winters FOLLOWING the analogs, 4 of the 5 are in the top 10. That is, statistically there is a 92% chance that one of the two next winters will be a top-10 for Tulsa, and 48% chance that BOTH will be. Also, of all those 10 years (next year's analogs and the years after them), only 1 had a positive DJF anomaly, and that one was only 0.3 degrees above average. Two of the 10 were the two coldest winters ever. In every case the analog year was colder than the year before ("year before" being the 09-10 representative), and in all but one case it was snowier. In all but one case the winter AFTER the analog was colder and snowier than the year before the analog. Considering 2009-2010 was one of the coldest, snowiest winters in Tulsa, I can only imagine what 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 will be like.

Oh, and feel free to post my analysis anywhere you want to, as long as you provide credit with a link.


Thanks a lot. wink.gif


--------------------
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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

"Get Up-To-Date Forecasts on Upcoming weather events across South-Eastern North America!"
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Torontoweather
post May 22 2010, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ May 22 2010, 03:14 PM) *
Hes using September as a safe call

He actually feels it will be positive by the end of July...


But specifically, what does he feel will be positive? Weekly numbers? Daily numbers? Monthly numbers? or Trimonthly (ONI) numbers?... which are still positive.


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Discussions on other parts of North America as well(particularly for winter storms)!
http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

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post May 22 2010, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ May 22 2010, 02:16 PM) *
But specifically, what does he feel will be positive? Weekly numbers? Daily numbers? Monthly numbers? or Trimonthly (ONI) numbers?... which are still positive.

Hes referring to the monthly mean...
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futureweatherman...
post May 22 2010, 02:59 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ May 22 2010, 03:14 PM) *
Hes using September as a safe call

He actually feels it will be positive by the end of July...
Hes going to have a full write up sometime on Sunday!

Quote from same source as above!

Mallow mentions that it may be temporary in June/July too... that may happen, but he's still not on board for a winter El Nino if I'm not mistaken

EDIT #2: He didn't even say El Nino territory... so if it gets to +.1°, he's still correct.

This post has been edited by futureweatherman12: May 22 2010, 03:02 PM


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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