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Personal Statement
“Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get,” Both have always and will always be changing.
Personal Info
Rank: F5 Superstorm
42 years old
SW Coastal CT
Born Dec-17-1974
[size=1]Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 40.2" [/size]


Previous Storms:

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32993"]Dec 11-12, 2016 [/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32958"]December 6th-8th 2016[/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32972"]Dec 4-5, 2016[/url]

[url="http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32963"]Nov 28-30, 2016[/url]
Joined: 10-August 09
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 10:09 PM
Local Time: Dec 16 2017, 12:17 AM
19,647 posts (6 per day)
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My Content
3 Dec 2017
Lets dedicate this thread to the strong front coming across which will bring warmth, maybe thunder, strong winds, heavy rains, tanking temps, and backside snows. Figure add Ohio valley into here as well.

From Pittsburgh

The maturing low pressure system digging into the western Great
Lakes will push a cold front through Ohio into our forecast area by
midday Tuesday.

From Taunton:

National Weather Service Taunton MA
117 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

Tuesday through Wednesday...

Cold front sweeping the region ahead of the main mid-level vortmax
thus obtaining anafrontal characteristics as sub-tropical moisture
ascends back behind the undercutting colder air. Couple of things to

1.) Precipitation onset. Continued low risk of spotty, light showers
towards Tuesday morning at which point sub-freezing air may remain
trapped within sheltered valleys of N MA thus presenting the threat
of freezing rain / drizzle. Ensemble probabilities of 0.01 continue
to signal wet-weather arriving after 12z Tuesday. Dominance of drier
air and subsidence within the mid-levels from the retreating high,
however signals within high-res guidance of weak isentropic upslope
round the high off the warmer, moist NE Atlantic contributing to the
spotty, light showery weather. Prevail with a slight chance for a
brief period of freezing rain over N MA around 12z Tuesday.

2.) Strong to damaging S/SW winds, Tuesday night. Warm air advection
(WAA) in advance brought about by strong SW flow. Leaning with highs
into the 50s, closer shot to 60 early Wednesday before temperatures
drop. Tightening thermal gradient up against colder air surging rear-
ward. Sharpening frontal boundary, thermal wind response, subsequent
H925 jet exceeding 60 mph. Increasing probability per ensemble means
of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph, potentially 50 mph, over S/SE New
England mainly around Wednesday. WAA loft could limit the mixing
threat, potentially a shallow nocturnal inversion with cold frontal
passage progged around 12z Wednesday, the strongest winds occurring
Tuesday night. However gradient wind response can`t be ignored. WIND
ADVISORY headlines could be met with sustained winds in excess of 30
mph alone. Will continue to highlight the threat in the HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK and adjust grids Tuesday night with sustained winds
closer to 35 mph and gusts to 45 mph.

3.) Change over to snow behind the cold front. Noted earlier, a cold
front with anafrontal characteristics with the main mid-level ascent
and associated vortmax rearward. Along 290-300K isentropic surfaces
seeing westward drawback of moisture from an anticyclonic warm-moist
conveyor belt above undercutting colder air. However, a strong dry
punch to the rear and the magnitude of the cold air in tow given now
a daytime passage with partial clearing forecast, change over threat
to snow is subdued along with confidence of any snow accumulations.
Perhaps a few wet snowflakes in the N/W high terrain. Ensemble mean
probabilities have exceptionally dialed back with respect to 1-inch
snowfalls in a 24-hour period, signaling a chance over N/W MA.

It`s going to rain. Widespread with embedded heavier showers, can`t
rule out a rumble of thunder given the moist, theta-E profile from
the sub-tropics, conditionally unstable. Precipitable waters over
1.25 inches, +2 standard deviations. Rainfall amounts around 0.75
inches expected, some locations coming in around an inch, ensemble
means signaling the CT River Valley especially. Quick moving cold
front, less a flood threat, however can`t rule out poor-drainage
issues. Keep a close eye on later forecasts with respect to high-res

HiRes NAM precip total only to Wednesday 1am

Attached Image
14 Nov 2017
Here we go again? Left a " ? " because it looks to be more than a few days.. NAO should be negative compared to previous blast.

Arctic Blast #1 Nov 9-11, 2017

National Weather Service New York NY
106 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017


Ridging returns behind the cold front later Thu with dry and
seasonable weather through Fri. This is where the forecast
starts to become uncertain, although the GFS is typically faster
to shift the ridge axis east. Thus, have sided with the slower
EC and have delayed onset of pcpn to late Fri Night/Sat morning.

The GFS is also more amplified as a piece of the polar vortex
in northern Canada breaks off with a cutoff low developing over
SE Canada over the weekend

At any rate, both are in agreement
that the energy from the aforementioned trough moving onshore
out west merges with that dropping down from Canada, but timing
is off. There is about a 24 hr difference of this occurring between
the EC and GFS. It does appear that part of the weekend will be
wet (and perhaps some snow inland) and then blustery behind the
system into early next week, but way too early for specifics.


Attached Image

Euro12z Monday 20th 850mb Temp Anomaly

Attached Image

Wednesday 22nd

Attached Image
8 Nov 2017
Points for the Euro seeing this depth of cold from 6-8 days ago while GFS and Canadian didnt buy it. Only about
3 days ago the GFS started coming around.

The PV talk is back.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
623 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

Upper trough associated with polar vortex over Hudson Bay this
eve amplifies as a 110+ kt upper jet on the west side dives
towards the base. This will set up a SW flow aloft across the
northeast resulting in a weak WAA pattern. However, conds appear
to be optimal for radiational cooling and many rural locations
will likely fall to or below the freezing mark. Although the
growing season has already ended across most of these areas,
have issued a freeze warning for coastal CT zones, New Haven,
Middlesex and New London, where it hasn`t ended yet.

Dry weather continues on Thu with the longwave trough and
associated sfc arctic front approaching. The weak WAA will
result in slightly higher temps in the lower to mid 50s with
increasing clouds and onshore flow keeping them in check.

***Arctic blast Friday into Friday Night with Record Cold Possible***

A polar trough digs into the Great Lakes Thursday and then swings
into Northern New England as it closes off Friday. This upper low
lifts NE through Eastern Canada for the weekend, with a more zonal
PAC flow returning for the weekend.

At the surface, an arctic front approaches and crosses the region
late Thursday Night. A few showers possible in the waa ahead of the
front Thursday Night. High-res models indicating a snow squall line
moving through Western and Central NY, but appears it should
dissipate as it works towards Orange County. Perhaps a snow shower
or flurry for the NW hills late Thursday night.

A modifying arctic high will builds west towards the region Friday
into Friday Night. This will bring the first taste of winter temps
on Friday, with temps likely holding in the lower 30s interior to
upper 30s coast city/coast during the day (around 15-20 degrees
below seasonable). Combined with NW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts
in the 30s...windchills will likely hold in the 20s for the
city/coast and teens across the interior. A hard freeze then likely
for Friday Night, with lows in the teens across the interior and 20s
for the city/coast. This should end the growing season for the
entire area. See the climate section below for records.

NWS Discussions
20 Jul 2017
Is that a clipper in the Summer??? ohmy.gif LMAO

NWS NY: Polar Vortex Mention

National Weather Service New York NY
506 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Although this period will start dry on Friday night, there is an
increasing chance of multiple rounds of heavy showers and TSTMs from
Saturday afternoon through Monday night.

The weather pattern favors the development of several Meso
Convective Systems/MCSs caused by short waves rotating SE around a
canadian polar vortex.
There is considerable uncertainty regarding
their track and intensity, depending on where they actually develop.

NWS Boston: Mentions a reason why the Jet is digging in the Northeast

National Weather Service Taunton MA
414 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Friday and Saturday...

Anomalous closed upper level low across eastern Canada will result
in northwest flow aloft into southern New England Fri & Sat.
result will be dry weather into at least Saturday afternoon. Plenty
of sunshine should push high temps well into the 80s on both days,
and a few locations may reach 90 on Friday. However, drier air will
mix down resulting in lower humidity than what we have experienced
the last few days.

Sunday through Tuesday...

The anomalous closed low across the Canadian Maritimes will help to
carve out an upper level trough across the northeast. The result
will be temps averaging below normal.
Specific daily high temps are
uncertain and will depend on timing, cloud cover, and location of
any surface boundaries. Highs will mainly be in the 70s over this
time frame, to perhaps a few lower 80s. It is also possible that a
some locations have a day where it struggles to break 70 as a result
of a surface boundary to the south coupled with northeast winds/low

Plenty of shortwave energy rotating around the upper trough will
result in periods of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms at
times. It does look rather unsettled, but the entire period will not
be a washout it is just impossible to try to pin down timing this
far out.

NWS Albany: mentions this clipper type storm coming

National Weather Service Albany NY
610 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Unsettled weather is expected for a good portion of the long term
period with a drying trend as we head toward the middle of next week.

Saturday night into Monday...More unsettled weather is expected as a
low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes region into the
This system will drag a warm front followed by a cold
front through the region.
17 Mar 2017
Forecast thread was here.

This is snowstorm (event) #5 across Eastern U.S within last 2 weeks. Been busy.

March 3-5
March 9-10
March 11-12
March 13-15

Clipper today becomes a coastal tomorrow

Attached Image

Attached Image

National Weather Service Taunton MA
513 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A clipper low tracks south of New England this weekend, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday.

National Weather Service Albany NY
426 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A quick
moving storm system will approach from the west tomorrow and will
redevelop southeast of New Jersey and Long Island bringing mainly a
light snowfall to eastern NY and western New England.

Snowing in Western PA and Virginia right now.

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