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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
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Athens, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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Viewing Topic: Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion
Local Time: Dec 12 2017, 01:23 AM
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ClicheVortex2014

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12 Nov 2017
A trough is going to swing in toward the end of this week, take a negative tilt and bomb out. GFS is showing pressure as deep as mid-970's in Michigan. The warm sector is narrow but has mid-50 dew points up to northern IN and northern OH. With how strong the wind fields are, there are going to be strong winds and high gusts throughout the day... but I think there'll be especially strong to severe winds with the frontal passage. This setup is pretty typical of HSLC (high shear low CAPE) squalls. Doubt there'll be much thunder, but I think there's just enough moisture and instability that some very strong winds will mix to the surface with the rain.

Bombogenesis: 996mb to 971mb in 24 hours. 500mb winds up to 110 MPH are pushing the system along.





29 Oct 2017
The period starts with a shortwave riding the STJ... severe weather threat in Texas. Meanwhile a western trough is dipping down and when it comes east it'll set up another round of severe weather.






19 Oct 2017
This snuck up on me.


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND
PARTS OF NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX
TO EASTERN KS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
TO SOUTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, including large hail and damaging winds, will
develop late Saturday afternoon across eastern Kansas into western
Oklahoma. Severe squall line will progress into the
lower/mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours.

...Texas to Iowa...

Short-range model guidance supports earlier thoughts regarding the
evolution of a strong trough as it progresses across the western US
into the Plains Saturday night. As the trough approaches the Plains,
LLJ will strengthen markedly ahead of a pronounced cold front, and
higher-PW plume will surge north across TX into portions of the
eastern central Plains where values could approach 1.5". Latest data
suggests a sharp front will extend from western MN, southwest across
central KS into the northern TX Panhandle at 18z, then into eastern
KS-central OK-northwest TX by 22/00z. This boundary will be the
focus for organized severe thunderstorms as it surges southeast.

Early-day capping will suppress convection along the front until mid
afternoon across eastern KS/western IA where inhibition will weaken
sufficiently for frontal convection, most likely by 21z. Farther
southwest along the boundary into western OK, strong surface heating
should contribute to steeper low-level lapse rates as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Substantial SBCAPE (2500-3000
J/kg) is forecast across western OK prior to convective initiation
and strengthening shear profiles suggest initial convection across
this region could be supercellular in nature. However, strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a rapidly maturing
squall line that should encompass the frontal zone from eastern KS
into southwest OK by 22/00z. Elongated MCS, with possible bow-type
structures, should surge east-southeast toward AR and northeast TX
during the overnight hours. While a tornado or two can not be ruled
out given the forecast shear, damaging winds may ultimately be the
greatest risk with this convection. Additionally, very large hail
could accompany supercells that develop early in the convective
cycle over the southern Plains.

GFS



NAM

9 Oct 2017
A western trough will be moving eastward bringing with it a non-negligible threat for strong/severe storms. SPC has a slight risk for Monday, marginal risk for Tuesday, and I'm sure they'll introduce a marginal risk for Wednesday.

For the setup in the OV... NAM has a slower and further south solution, GFS has a faster and further north solution.




GFS has unidrectional winds in the warm sector, while NAM has veered winds. IMO, NAM's solution makes more sense to me. Would definitely have to watch out for tornadoes with warm front-riding cells
1 Oct 2017
Starting to get more and more fall-like systems in the models. This one is interesting.

A strong system pushes through the Lakes on Saturday. Notice how, on the dew point image, the cold front is weakening and has almost turned into a warm front. Also notice the raging Pacific jet pushing into the Pacific NW. The stationary front implies southerly flow will be uninterrupted by the first system, and moisture advection will continue.




1 day later... BIG changes... especially for Illinois.




EHI


A negative thing about this setup, though, is that the central low is all the way up in the Lakes... so shear is kinda lacking. Especially since the jet stream stays out of the warm sector. The exception to this is up in Illinois where there's more of a balance between CAPE and shear.

I haven't made a severe weather thread since mid-August. Goes to show how the weather has been rolleyes.gif
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