Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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27 Mar 2017
The extremely active weather pattern goes on. Possible moderate risk coming up on Tuesday for some of the same areas that got a moderate risk today.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND DEEPEN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER TX
WILL RAPIDLY TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE POSITIONED OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX. A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OK BY EARLY
EVENING. THE AREA NEAR THE TRIPLE-POINT OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS
LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, YIELDING AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OK. THIS
WILL LIKELY MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT, AND PERHAPS THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF GREATEST THREAT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING ENH RISK, WITH CONSIDERATION FOR UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN
STORMS WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TX DURING THE EVENING, WITH A CONTINUED ENHANCED-RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
WPC has a quadruple point at 00z Wednesday
21 Mar 2017
While we already have a thread open for severe weather in the SE during this time frame, another system will be ejecting out of the Rockies and will create severe weather back in the Southern Plains... again. IMO, this has the potential to be a more significant event than the ones in the previous days. This is because I believe there'll be more moisture available, seeing as a lack of moisture is among one of the inhibiting factors with the previous days' severe weather isn't as potent as it could've been.
All major severe weather events share at least this one thing in common: long-duration moisture return. Sunday will mark the 5th or 6th day of southerly flow from the Tropics to the Gulf, and the 4th or 5th day of southerly flow in the southern US (within 100 miles of the Gulf).
The synoptic setup is enough to make any Great Plains storm chaser drool. As you can see, the cold front from the previous system is weakening and has already begun to turn into a warm front. The fact that it didn't penetrate very far south is key for this event as moisture return is continued south of the front through the entire event, and now will begin another moisture surge with the new system.
In N TX
25 Feb 2017
SPC has back-to-back days outlined for this time period. GFS and NAM have some robust severe potential... especially NAM.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
Severe-thunderstorm potential will focus during the
Tuesday-Wednesday (Days 4-5) period. Medium-range models (GFS,
ECMWF, CMC, UKMET) and ensembles are coming into better agreement
regarding the evolution of a larger-scale mid-level trough moving
from the western states eastward to the MS Valley on Wednesday. The
trough subsequently exits the east coast on Thursday and severe
potential will likely remain low through Saturday (Day 8) as surface
high pressure resides over the central Gulf Coast.
...Arkansas and surrounding states on Tuesday-Tuesday night...
Low-level moisture will contribute to increased buoyancy within a
broad warm-air-advection regime downstream of the mid-level trough.
A cold front is forecast to move into the western part of this area
late Tuesday along with an increasing risk for severe thunderstorms.
...lower MS Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday...
Strong belt of mid-level flow coupled with increasing low-level
moisture will probably support marginal-moderate buoyancy with a
strong shear profile. The timing of a cold front appears to
converge on Wednesday as it sweeps through the area. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecast, some of which could be severe.
22 Feb 2017
About 4 days after the last severe weather threat, mother nature may have the pattern reloaded and possibly even nastier.
Moisture is very quick to return from the last system. A trough in the SW US will eject a jet streak ahead of it. This jet streak will run over seasonably rich moisture and possibly steep lapse rates. Models are indicating the potential for a double whammy of lee cyclogenesis, as seen below.
Classic EML sounding
12z Euro was really, really impressive with this system. It had 60 dew points up to WI/IL border with a very well-defined dryline crossing through Kansas City.
Here's WPC's thoughts
17 Feb 2017
As the system from the 21st lingers in the Gulf (which ultimately interferes with moisture return for this system), another system comes in and clips through the Great Lakes. Enough moisture is present and lapse rates are steep enough that a broad area of the warm section will have enough instability for thunderstorms. As of right now, I'm thinking the majority of the severe weather will occur in the mid-Mississippi valley.
SPC has already mentioned this time frame for severe weather for the region.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
The potential for severe weather will likely remain low early during
the extended period as a mid-level low meanders eastward over the
Gulf of Mexico and towards the FL Straits. Time-lagged
deterministic and ensemble data indicate a potent mid-level trough
will eject into the Great Plains on Thursday (day 7). In an
otherwise very favorable pattern for severe, return-flow moisture
will likely be limited owing to the aforementioned influence of the
weather system over the Gulf of Mexico and northerly offshore flow
over the northwestern Gulf Coast leading up to Thursday. The
central U.S. disturbance will subsequently move downstream into the
MS Valley and possibly lead to an increased risk for an organized
band or bands of strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday (day 8).
Ensemble model exhibit appreciable variability/spread. Therefore
will refrain from introducing a 15-percent severe highlight for
areas downstream of the central-southern Great Plains (MS-OH-TN
Valleys) and await additional model consistency.
22 Mar 2017 - 20:00
22 Mar 2017 - 10:47
8 Mar 2017 - 21:53
5 Mar 2017 - 0:49
5 Mar 2017 - 0:26
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