Nor easter ?, Dec 29-31 Options

[Ryan45]

definitely! We need more people from the east coast on here

[EOsnowmom]

This has been quite the powerful storm system. East-coasters enjoy the pounding you're about to get! If the storm continues to be the over-achiever it has been, you can roughly double or triple the snowfall estimates provided by EC. Have fun!

[newfiebrit]

definitely! We need more people from the east coast on here

Wish I had something good to report back. Looks like just a bit of rain for the avalon from this storm, friday was a bit of snow then rain. Almost seems like spring out though I notice its going to turn colder next week, just need a storm to pop up with a better track for us here, western areas have taken the snow.

Though I have been in bed past 3 days with flu so kinda glad didnt have to deal with 2 storms in 3 days.

[CanadianKeegan]

Down to 964 mb here in Halifax... Sadly, no snow or wind! Too far east to get wind and too far west to get snow...

[Ryan45]

aww sorry fellas..you'll get a storm soon!

[willyswagon]

definitely! We need more people from the east coast on here

There are lots of us on here lurking, but few that have the knowlege base to add to the forecasts/ conversations.

So far this one has been a bust here in Eastern PEI. 15 cm of snow then to rain. Kids just finished clearing off the deck, while I did the driveway with the 56 Willys Truck.

No real wind yet( it topped out at 33 kts) last night.

We'll wait and see if the wind picks up tonight as forecast.

[kush61]

Hello willyswagon, could you upload a picture of that `56 Willys with the plow ?
You running an original engine ? Is it 4 wheel drive ?

[shane o mac]

Nothing but bull *bleep* . nothing at all here in north sydney maybe 4 cm of snow down and now its nice out no wind at all we still have a wind warning but nothing at all to talk about .

[willyswagon]

Nothing but bull *bleep* . nothing at all here in north sydney maybe 4 cm of snow down and now its nice out no wind at all we still have a wind warning but nothing at all to talk about .

Parts of The Island have winds up to 85 kph, but we are still at about 30.
We are in for another 15 cm and high winds until tomorrow pm(So they say)

[newfiebrit]

Wind and rain, 5 degrees here is what this system bought us. Green out, few snowbanks hanging on not for much longer!

[willyswagon]

Just got back from the wharf. We have about a 1 M storm surge. Water is over the wharf in many places. The waves are lapping at the bottom of the local bridge.

Wind is now NNW 60, gusting to 77kph. wet snow faling

[willyswagon]

Hello willyswagon, could you upload a picture of that `56 Willys with the plow ?
You running an original engine ? Is it 4 wheel drive ?

All original including the plow. 6 cyl, 4WD.
Just an old truck that still is used for yard work 56 yrs after being built.





This post has been edited by willyswagon: Dec 31 2012, 05:19 AM

[willyswagon]

It is still blowing hard here. Wind WNW 70, gusting to 85 kph.
It is going to drop to 40-60kph by midnight. Another 5 cm today, followed by 2cm tonight.
Winter has arrived on PEI!

[bigmt]

Snow and rain totals as well as max wind speeds from NS and NB, courtesy of EC - http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=ns

A major winter storm affected most of the Maritimes Sunday. The low
pressure system approached the Maritimes from the southwest and
reached the eastern shore of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon with a
central pressure of 956 hpa. Sunday evening the storm had passed
East of Cape Breton and was heading for Newfoundland.

The storm brought snow, ice pellets, rain and strong winds across
The province. Western and northern areas saw mostly snow and blowing
snow. Elsewhere the snow became mixed with or changed to rain before
changing back to snow. Easternmost areas of the province and Cape
Breton saw mostly rain through the day with a change to snow
Expected overnight Sunday.

The strong winds and low pressure also produced elevated water
Levels and big waves along the Atlantic coast. Data from Fisheries
and Oceans Canada tidal water level network indicated a storm surge
heights of about 80 cm at Halifax which resulted in minor flooding
along the coastline. Additionally there were large waves of 4 to 6
metres along the Atlantic coast.


The following are unofficial snowfall (cm) and rainfall (mm) amounts
as of 9:00 PM AST Sunday:

Manned observation sites
Halifax ................................. 16 cm
Yarmouth ................................ 20 cm
Greenwood ............................... 18 cm
Sydney................................... 15.7 mm


Unmanned observation sites*
Shearwater .............................. 20.3 mm
Malay Falls.............................. 18.1 mm
Western Head ............................ 31.1 mm
Kejimkujik .............................. 20 cm
Kentville................................ 14 cm
Debert .................................. 11 cm
Nappan .................................. 15 cm
Caribou Point............................ 7.4 mm and 2 cm
Tracadie ................................ 11.5 mm
Ingonish Beach .......................... 26.5 mm
Parrsboro................................ 12 cm


*snowfall amounts are estimated from water equivalent.

Other unofficial observation sites:

Eskasoni ................................ 12.5 mm and 2 cm
New Ross ................................ 15.3 cm

The following are unofficial maximum wind observations:


Yarmouth................................. 95 km/h
Greenwood ............................... 89 km/h
McNabs Island............................ 85 km/h
Beaver Island............................ 100 km/h
Western Head ............................ 87 km/h
Baccaro Point............................ 109 km/h
Brier Island ............................ 111 km/h
Nappan .................................. 78 km/h
Caribou Point............................ 76 km/h
Grand Etang.............................. 132 km/h
Parrsboro................................ 76 km/h

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SW..._e.html?prov=nb

A major winter storm affected most of New Brunswick Sunday. The low
pressure system approached the Maritimes from the southwest and
reached the eastern shore of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon with a
central pressure of 956 hpa. Sunday evening the storm had passed
East of Cape Breton and was heading for Newfoundland.

Substantial snowfall amounts were reported across many regions. For
some areas, especially in Kings County, it was the second
Significant snowfall of the week. Snowfall amounts of 35 to 45 cm
were reported at Mechanic Settlement, long reach and Quispamsis. In
addition, gusty winds reduced visibilities to less than 500 metres
At times in blowing snow. Several reports of gusts to 80 km/h were
reported along the Acadian coast.

The strong winds and low pressure also produced elevated water
Levels and big waves along the coast from Miramichi southward.
Data from Fisheries and Oceans Canada tidal water level network
indicated a storm surge height of about 120 cm at Shediac which
resulted in minor flooding along the coastline.

The following are unofficial snowfall (cm) amounts as of 2:00 AM
AST Monday observed at:

Manned observation sites
Moncton .................................24 cm
Saint John...............................25 cm
Gagetown.................................20 cm
Bathurst.................................21 cm
Saint Léonard ........................... 6 cm

Automatic weather stations
Grand Manan Island ......................26 cm
St Stephen ..............................23 cm
Mechanic Settlement......................38 cm
Fundy Park ..............................24 cm
Bouctouche ..............................17 cm
Kouchibouguac ...........................37 cm
Fredericton .............................13 cm
Bas Caraquet ............................23 cm
Red pines................................22 cm
Charlo ..................................10 cm
Edmundston .............................. 5 cm

Volunteer observers
Bayside .................................25 cm
Long reach ..............................38 cm
Quispamisis .............................46 cm
Nerepis .................................33 cm
Lewis mtn Moncton .......................30 cm
New Maryland ............................24 cm
Fredericton .............................23 cm
Keswick ridge ...........................13 cm
Miramichi ...............................37 cm
Oak Point ...............................27 cm

Us National Weather Service reports
Houlton me...............................15 cm
Princeton me (nw of St Stephen)..........30 cm
Robbinston me (W of saint andrews).......45 cm
Eastport me (nw of Grand Manan Island)...30 cm

[newfiebrit]

Not sure if this is the right thread but not sure if I should start my own but Accuweather and TWN seem to be picking up on a significant storm for our region this coming Friday/Saturday which isn't too far away, the good thing is it's going to much colder. Thoughts, is it worthy of it's own thread?

[bigmt]

Not sure if this is the right thread but not sure if I should start my own but Accuweather and TWN seem to be picking up on a significant storm for our region this coming Friday/Saturday which isn't too far away, the good thing is it's going to much colder. Thoughts, is it worthy of it's own thread?

Some differences between the GFS and European, 00z GFS @ hour 129:

 gfs_namer_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.21K ) Number of downloads: 1


The Euro has little of consequence until later, hour 168:

 00zeuro850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 154.82K ) Number of downloads: 1

[shane o mac]

I dont think it will be anything big .

[newfiebrit]

Some differences between the GFS and European, 00z GFS @ hour 129:

 gfs_namer_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.21K ) Number of downloads: 1


The Euro has little of consequence until later, hour 168:

 00zeuro850mbTSLPNA168.gif ( 154.82K ) Number of downloads: 1

It's gone now, which I was pretty much expecting after your post. So are their forecasts based on one model with no human input?

[bigmt]

It's gone now, which I was pretty much expecting after your post. So are their forecasts based on one model with no human input?

It's a good question. I would confidently say no but I have little in the way of evidence to back that up since I am not privy to the exact methods of how either EC or TWN create their forecasts.

It would seem very foolish to employ a team of pro mets and not allow them to influence the model output before it is released publicly.