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> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 02:31 PM
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216, looks like a landfall in New Jersey as a tropical storm.

Maybe a hybrid/subtropical.


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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 02:33 PM
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Another run down and another possibility to consider. Let the wheel spin again...
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stretchct
post Sep 13 2017, 02:37 PM
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At least the winds aren't terrible. High wind warning likely for gusts. I'll check when Accupro loads. For now, here is the 850 wind.
Attached Image


That being said, the storm is in the area for three days.

edit: granted its the 850 flow, but it looks like there would be onshore winds in Jersey for 5 days. With an easterly fetch into LI Sound for the same period.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Sep 13 2017, 02:47 PM


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weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

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First measurable
First flakes
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
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2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
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stilko4
post Sep 13 2017, 02:52 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 13 2017, 03:37 PM) *
At least the winds aren't terrible. High wind warning likely for gusts. I'll check when Accupro loads. For now, here is the 850 wind.
Attached Image


That being said, the storm is in the area for three days.

edit: granted its the 850 flow, but it looks like there would be onshore winds in Jersey for 5 days. With an easterly fetch into LI Sound for the same period.


Looks like a strong nor Easter for Li with a windy day or 2. Obvs hoping for ots, but this doesn't seem bad if it was to verify


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snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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TC1
post Sep 13 2017, 03:16 PM
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Here's the 12z professor...


Attached Image


... the 12z JMA...

(click)

Attached Image


... the 12z P-HWRF at the end of the run (heading NNE)...


Attached Image


... and the 11 A.M. cone (why has the NHC only put out updates every 6 hours instead of every 3?)...


Attached Image




Also, I'd like to ask again, is the NAVGEM model the one that's considered the "western edge" model on these forums? In other words, if the NAVGEM says a storm scrapes the east coast, there's a good chance the other models will be east of that with what they show?
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Undertakerson
post Sep 13 2017, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 13 2017, 04:16 PM) *
Here's the 12z professor...


Attached Image


... the 12z JMA...

(click)

Attached Image


... the 12z P-HWRF at the end of the run (heading NNE)...


Attached Image


... and the 11 A.M. cone (why has the NHC only put out updates every 6 hours instead of every 3?)...


Attached Image

Also, I'd like to ask again, is the NAVGEM model the one that's considered the "western edge" model on these forums? In other words, if the NAVGEM says a storm scrapes the east coast, there's a good chance the other models will be east of that with what they show?


The NAVGEM "Rule" states that, given its notorious progressive bias, the NAV can be a barometer (if you will) to what the others end up doing. So, if it is west of it's previous run, so too (often) will be the other global resolution models. IOW, it should almost always be the EASTERN-most model, in any particular suite of model runs.

We use it all the time in winter and, now, it seems to work just as well (in the main) with TC's.

But, like any "rule" (Typhoon Rule, Bering Sea Rule, etc.) it is not 100% (but not too much below) and can mislead.

So, I compare it to its own output from previous, then can anticipate a general move in that direction, from the other models. If a model doesn't adjust per the Rule, then I tend to not trust it. If the model does adjust to the Rule, then I give it more credit.

Edit - I probably did a horrible job at explaining the Rule.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Sep 13 2017, 03:24 PM
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Undertakerson
post Sep 13 2017, 03:29 PM
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What I find troubling is that the CMC actually had the W FL landfall for Irma when only the JMA also had it (it lost it for two runs but came back)

Now with this, the Euro at 00z and 12z (pat two runs) is acting somewhat like yesterday's CMC at 12z blink.gif

Can CMC get some redemption and actually show the correct solution for TC's (even if it does lose it for a while, which all models do from time to time)

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stretchct
post Sep 13 2017, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 13 2017, 04:20 PM) *
The NAVGEM "Rule" states that, given its notorious progressive bias, the NAV can be a barometer (if you will) to what the others end up doing. So, if it is west of it's previous run, so too (often) will be the other global resolution models. IOW, it should almost always be the EASTERN-most model, in any particular suite of model runs.

We use it all the time in winter and, now, it seems to work just as well (in the main) with TC's.

But, like any "rule" (Typhoon Rule, Bering Sea Rule, etc.) it is not 100% (but not too much below) and can mislead.

So, I compare it to its own output from previous, then can anticipate a general move in that direction, from the other models. If a model doesn't adjust per the Rule, then I tend to not trust it. If the model does adjust to the Rule, then I give it more credit.

Edit - I probably did a horrible job at explaining the Rule.

Nice summary. Do you just look at how it moves, or do you consider any model more progressive (further east) to be an anomaly?

This post has been edited by stretchct: Sep 13 2017, 03:35 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 03:40 PM
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I believe the Euro was showing close to Irma's final solution at about this range, lost it then came back home. Mean anything? Who knows.
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Undertakerson
post Sep 13 2017, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Sep 13 2017, 04:40 PM) *
I believe the Euro was showing close to Irma's final solution at about this range, lost it then came back home. Mean anything? Who knows.

I actually went back to TT archived runs and found that the Euro only had W FL on 9/5, or 4 days before US impact. JMA was first (9/3), CMC next (also 9/3 but lost it only to find it two runs later), followed by UKIE (only b/c the storm finally came into its range of 168hrs, then Euro on 9/5 (which once it "got it" did not let go) and then GFS.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Sep 13 2017, 03:51 PM
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Undertakerson
post Sep 13 2017, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 13 2017, 04:32 PM) *
Nice summary. Do you just look at how it moves, or do you consider any model more progressive (further east) to be an anomaly?

Yes, the latter. If a model is east of NAVGEM, it is (more often than not) on the wrong track (providing the NAV does not jump even more east of that other model, in its next run)
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Undertakerson
post Sep 13 2017, 03:54 PM
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So, let's say Euro is east of NAV - we expect the Euro to come back west.

If the NAV adjusts east (but still west of Euro) we expect the models that had been west, to come east.

Gosh, I hope I'm not muddying this worse than I think I am)
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TC1
post Sep 13 2017, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 13 2017, 04:54 PM) *
So, let's say Euro is east of NAV - we expect the Euro to come back west.

If the NAV adjusts east (but still west of Euro) we expect the models that had been west, to come east.

Gosh, I hope I'm not muddying this worse than I think I am)


Ah, I had it all backward. I knew I kept seeing comments about the NAVGEM sort being a guide for where the other models could go, but I must have missed the part about it being more east (progressive) than other models. Thanks for explaining it smile.gif
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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 05:06 PM
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GFS coming in pretty close to Euro so far...

GFS


EURO
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ionizer
post Sep 13 2017, 05:07 PM
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i refuse to believe this thing will be anywhere near the coast....

why does NHC continue to show it out to sea despite these models?
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 05:15 PM
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18Z looks like it wants to bring Jose NW near the northern Mid Atlantic and Long Island coasts.


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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 05:18 PM
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18z took it a step closer to NE coast but still stays OTS.
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baltimorewisher8...
post Sep 13 2017, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE(ionizer @ Sep 13 2017, 06:07 PM) *
i refuse to believe this thing will be anywhere near the coast....

why does NHC continue to show it out to sea despite these models?


First of all - the NHC doesnt flip flop with each model suite and for good reason.

Second - your two points are kind of contradictory... You say you refuse to believe it will be anywhere near the coast in the same breath asking why the NHC doesnt change its track closer to the coast? See what I mean?

There is plenty of time here and until the models have some consensus or a better grasp, I see no reason for the NHC to make any significant changes - (not saying they may not need to at a later date)...
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 05:24 PM
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You can see that Jose is very slow to decide where to go.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Sep 13 2017, 05:18 PM) *
18z took it a step closer to NE coast but still stays OTS.



Thumbs up!


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