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> June 28 - July 3 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Jun 27 2011, 02:38 AM
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New day 3
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
MT...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A
WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CNTRL
AND NRN MT CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN MT AROUND MIDDAY AND SPREAD THE CONVECTION EWD INTO
THE PLAINS OF CNTRL MT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED
ALONG AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
HAVE TROUBLE INITIATING DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AND TO WARM TEMPS
IN THE MID-LEVELS. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN INITIATE ON THE WRN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE... THEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. DUE TO THE CAPPING
INVERSION...WILL ONLY FORECAST A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jul 3 2011, 12:58 PM


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 28 2011, 01:16 AM
Post #2




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New day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES/NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CA WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL-DEFINED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN ID AND WRN MT AS SFC TEMPS WARM. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STORMS MOVING INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
WCNTRL MT. THE MODELS FORECAST A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM WCNTRL MT INTO FAR NE MT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD
REACH THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MT
EARLY THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST...THEN A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN UT...NRN CO...WY AND SE MT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST SOME POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY
STEEP. FOR THIS REASON...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CORES HAVING AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
THREAT.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 28 2011, 02:30 AM
Post #3




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New day 3
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD
BE IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3500 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE. DUE
TO AN EXITING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST...A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FIRST ACROSS
ERN MT AND NE WY WHERE STORMS MAY INITIATE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...INITIATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS JET ALONG WITH THE
STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN ND WHERE THE MODELS MAXIMIZE THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS SRN SD WHERE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXIST BUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EWD INTO NW MN. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT COULD ALSO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BUT THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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SEMIweather
post Jun 28 2011, 07:12 AM
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Definitely looks like an MCS train should set up somewhere for 4th of July Weekend.


--------------------
University of Oklahoma Meteorology Major - Class of 2014


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MAC292OH10
post Jun 28 2011, 02:30 PM
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i mentioned this in another thread, since it was overlooked i will re-post info...as ive said before WRF cores are the future in environmental modeling, NCEP & NOAA should raise the bar for the NAM quite high with this upgrade...some pretty interesting features being added...

NAM upgrade for JULY 12th

This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 28 2011, 02:30 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 28 2011, 03:05 PM
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Guessing date may need extended by at least a day

QUOTE
Greg Forbes WEDNESDAY
Isolated severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front in southeast NC,
central and south SC, central and south GA, north FL, central and south AL,
MS, northwest, central and south AR, LA. Morning hail in south-central and
southe...ast KS, north-central and northeast OK. Isolated severe thunderstorms
with the next upper trough in north and central ID, northeast OR, west MT.
TORCON - 2 or lessSee More
4 hours ago


QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes THURSDAY
Isolated severe thunderstorms in south GA, north and central FL, extreme
south AL, south MS, LA, west and south AR, extreme southeast OK, extreme
southwest MO. Isolated severe thunderstorms in east ND, east SD, northwest
MN, north-central NE. TORCON - 2 or less


QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes FRIDAY
Isolated severe thunderstorms by evening in southeast NE, southwest to
northeast IA, southwest to northeast WI, upper MI along a cold front.
2 hours ago


QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes SATURDAY
Severe thunderstorms and a chance of a tornado in east WY, SD, north and west NE, southwest MN, west and central IA. Isolated severe thunderstorms in southeast MO, south and east-central IL, IN, OH, PA, southeast MI, north, west, and central NY, northwest WV, VT.


QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes SUNDAY
Severe thunderstorms in southeast MN, IA, south half WI, north and central IL, lower MI, north and central IN, north and central OH, west PA, south NE, northeast CO, east WY.

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WeatherMonger
post Jun 28 2011, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jun 28 2011, 03:05 PM) *
Guessing date may need extended by at least a day

I'm not sure if SPC is main criteria for dates, but they mention the possibility as well as lack of confidence

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY/DAY 4 WITH THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT ON SATURDAY/DAY 5 AND SUNDAY/DAY 6.
BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...THE MODELS FORECAST A MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
SUGGESTING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NRN INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES.
BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS SUGGESTING PREDICTABILITY
IS VERY LOW LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A SEVERE MCS RIDING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
ATTM...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT AREA
.

..BROYLES.. 06/28/2011

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jdrenken
post Jun 28 2011, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jun 28 2011, 02:30 PM) *
i mentioned this in another thread, since it was overlooked i will re-post info...as ive said before WRF cores are the future in environmental modeling, NCEP & NOAA should raise the bar for the NAM quite high with this upgrade...some pretty interesting features being added...

NAM upgrade for JULY 12th


I had a 'Weather Questions & Info' thread opened on the 20th of May. wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Jun 28 2011, 04:38 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
237 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/237 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT LATE THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

WE FINALLY HAVE HAD A DRY DAY TODAY NOW THAT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING OVER
THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE AREA
TO LIE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM-UP TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND THE GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. BY THURSDAY...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. THIS
WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE FEED CIRCLING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 100-106F RANGE BY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER MOVE MUCH OF THE CWA
ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO BRING HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 105F OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A
QUESTION IF THE HEAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING THE ACTIVE MCS
TRAIN DOWN INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE DURING THESE PATTERNS ARE
ALWAYS QUESTIONABLE...SO WILL WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE
IF THE DANGEROUS HEAT WILL LAST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
BEYOND.


BRITT


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Gilbertfly
post Jun 28 2011, 08:39 PM
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DVN certainly interested about this weekend. . .

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011


FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING AS THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE A NEED FOR
HEAT HEADLINES. ALL MODELS INDICATE 700MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-17C
ACROSS THE AREA SO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE APPROACHING FRONT
IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SO ITS ARRIVAL SHOULD
BE SLOWER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER RIDGE IT WILL WEAKEN. TAKING THIS ALL TOGETHER
POINTS TO FRIDAY BEING DRY. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN FIRE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL NOT BE DOCILE.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SCHC/CHC POPS IN
EVERY PERIOD. THE KEY TO EVERYTHING WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT STALLS
OUT. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE IT SHOULD STALL OUT
OVER THE CWFA...EITHER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PART. THERE IS
SOMETHING ABOUT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT LOOKS FAMILIAR TO
EARLIER THIS MONTH.

REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT SCHC/CHC POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR POTENTIAL
DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS THE ACTIVE MCS TRACK MAY
BE EITHER IN OR VERY CLOSE TO THE CWFA. SOME OF THE MCS EVENTS COULD
GET QUITE INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND.
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snowlover2
post Jun 29 2011, 01:07 AM
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New day 1
Attached Image


Tornado
Threat is less than 2% so no areas outlined

Hail
Attached Image


Wind
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID/MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER QUEBEC AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLEARS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY TODAY WHILE OTHERWISE SAGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS UPPER RIDGING
BECOMES MORE PROMINENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...A SPLIT UPPER
FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SPREADING FROM CA TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...MT/ID...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY BREAK DOWN WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AMID PHASING WESTERLIES/SPLIT FLOW
OVER THE REGION. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MT BY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN ADEQUATE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RELATIVELY ORGANIZED/HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
LIKELY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...UT/WY/WESTERN CO...
FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE REGION OF
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
UT INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN WY AND WESTERN CO AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GIVEN INCREASING LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...THE STRONGEST STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.



...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...
AT LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT /MAINLY AFTER
06Z/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AND PERHAPS EASTERN
IA. THIS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME NOCTURNALLY INCREASES. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE/STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT PROVIDE A
MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF
SEVERE...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 29 2011, 01:12 AM
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New day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NRN PLAINS
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW
A STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCES
IN THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE NEWD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH COULD RESULT IN RAPID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN SD NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN ND AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN SD AND ERN ND AT 03Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 3500 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE WITH SOME EVEN HIGHER AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KT. THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT AND
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE UPON INITIATION ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ERN ND. HAVE ADDED A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AND
SIG-HATCHED AREA IN ERN ND AND FAR NW MN WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL COULD
OCCUR. THE ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT AREA IS LOCATED WHERE THE MODELS
MAXIMIZE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ARE
THE MOST IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING STORM INITIATION. SOME TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES
IN WHICH CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE REGION EARLIER. IF A FAST MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS OR A SMALL
MCS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST.

FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR STORM INITIATION WOULD BE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS WI...UPPER MI AND NERN IL WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 29 2011, 02:23 AM
Post #13




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New day 3
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES/CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EXIST BENEATH
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN UPPER MI
OR ERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT
MARGINAL.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
PLAINS...CONVECTION MAY ALSO INITIATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED KEEPING CONVECTION AND THE RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT VERY
ISOLATED.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 29 2011, 06:16 AM
Post #14




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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





New Day 4
QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. THE
MODELS GRADUALLY TURN FLOW TO THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NRN
STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 AND MONDAY/DAY 6 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWD ACROSS THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR WHERE A
TIGHT GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
..PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS LACK OF PREDICTABILITY CONTINUES INTO THE MID WEEK
AS THE MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN.

..BROYLES.. 06/29/2011

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snowlover2
post Jun 30 2011, 01:12 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 17,988
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New day 1
Attached Image


Tornado
Attached Image


Hail
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Wind
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO/WY TO MN/ND...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT UPPER-AIR FEATURE WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONE OVER S-CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH RIDGING NNEWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THAT RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED EWD SOMEWHAT AS HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY ENTERING SRN NV FROM CA SIERRAS. STG DISCREPANCY
PREVIOUSLY EVIDENT IN PROGGED PHASE SPEED OF THIS WAVE BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL WRF AND MOST OTHER MODELS HAS RECONCILED MARKEDLY TOWARD
STILL-SLOWEST WRF SOLUTION...WITH FCST TROUGH POSITION OVER WRN
CO/S-CENTRAL WY AT 1/00Z. THIS ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH ETA-BMJ AND
ETA-KF MEMBERS OF 29/21Z SREF PACKAGE...WHOSE MEAN WAS 400 NM FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE OVER ERN ND BY 12Z. SATELLITE-VERIFICATION TRENDS
STRONGLY SUPPORT SLOWER SOLUTION...SO THIS FCST WILL BE WEIGHTED TO
OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL CONSENSUS.

AT SFC...LOW NOW INVOF NRN PORTIONS MT-ND BORDER IS FCST TO LIFT
NEWD ACROSS SRN MB AND WEAKEN EARLY IN PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SEWD ACROSS NERN WY.
BY 1/00Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NEAR RDR SWWD ACROSS
NERN/S-CENTRAL SD AND NRN NEB PANHANDLE TO E-CENTRAL WY...WITH WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN SD. WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
FROM THAT LOW SHOULD DRIFT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS WI/LM/LOWER MI.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF MID-UPPER TROUGH IN CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME
ORGANIZED INTO SMALL BOWS AND CLUSTERS PRODUCING SVR/DAMAGING
GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AS IT MOVES ONTO HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO DEEPER/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE TO ITS E ON PLAINS. THIS REGION WILL EXPERIENCE BOTH
STRENGTHENING DCVA/ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF TROUGH
ALOFT...JUXTAPOSED WITH STG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING COMPLEXES MAY
EVOLVE UPSCALE FROM EARLY ACTIVITY AS WELL AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
PLAINS. WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR
OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AOA 30% SVR WIND
PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER INFLUENTIAL MESOSCALE FOCI ARE NOT YET
APPARENT. GREATEST DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL MAY BE BEHIND SFC
COLD FRONT OVER NERN WY/SWRN SD REGION WHERE NELY SFC WINDS ADVECT
POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE UPSLOPE...WHILE ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

...NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SVR RISK EXISTS INVOF SFC
FRONT OVER CORRIDOR FROM SD ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN/NRN MN...WITH VERY
STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON BUT ALSO
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND FRONTAL ZONE IS FCST TO
BE RELATIVELY WEAK...LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE AND CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT...BACKED/ELY COMPONENT
NE OF SFC LOW...AND STG DIABATIC HEATING IN WARM SECTOR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MLCINH AND INITIATE TSTMS DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SFC DEW POINTS 70S F AND PW 1.4-1.8 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT PEAK MLCAPES IN 5000-6000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH SRH
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SEGMENTS. SVR HAIL AND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING/SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT ALSO MAY EXIST WITH ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...BUT IS TOO CONDITIONAL ON TSTM COVERAGE TO
WARRANT 15%-SIG LINE ATTM.

...LM AND SURROUNDING STATES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS BROAD AREA IN SEVERAL POSSIBLE EPISODES--
1. EARLY-PERIOD HAIL RISK OVER NRN PORTIONS...
2. AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE NEAR WARM
FRONT IN HIGH-CAPE/HIGH-CINH REGIME...WITH WIND/HAIL RISK AND SOME
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...AND
3. EITHER LATE-PERIOD DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT OR
PERSISTENCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY WITH RISK OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.



...MFE/BRO CORRIDOR OF DEEP S TX...
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FCST ARLENE TO MAINTAIN UPPER TROPICAL-STORM
INTENSITY IN ITS CORE REGION BEFORE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE MEX COAST
EARLY IN PERIOD...WELL S BRO AND ALSO S TAMPICO. GIVEN FCST
TRACK...MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ACCOMPANYING NRN/NERN-SECTOR WIND
FIELDS POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN S
OF MEX BORDER. HOWEVER...NRN FRINGES OF 1-3 KM AGL WINDS SUFFICIENT
FOR FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BRUSH LOWER VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH SOME BRO FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-1 KM
SRH 150-200 J/KG RANGE BEFORE 30/18Z. THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE MRGL
PROBABILITIES TO REFLECT VERY CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Jun 30 2011, 01:16 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,988
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...UPPER MS-VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A MODERATELY
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER-MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON WHICH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS CONVECTION
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE
VALUES FROM AROUND 5000 J/KG IN NRN WI TO ABOUT 2500 J/KG IN ERN NEB
AND WRN IA. THIS COMBINED WITH 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
THE NWRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS CELLS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE AND STORM MODE.
WARM AIR ALOFT ALONG COULD MAKE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
STRUGGLE. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE WEST...VIGOROUS SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD
ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS. A SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXTEND EWD INTO LOWER MI BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THERE AND WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT MARGINAL.

...CNTRL PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SWD INTO ERN CO AND CNTRL KS.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z IN WRN KS SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE LOW-SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS BUT SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND THE RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 30 2011, 02:35 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton,OH
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New day 3
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE WY...WRN NEB
AND NE CO...

...OH VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SETUP SATURDAY ACROSS NRN STATES
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 F. AS SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WET DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AT 21Z TO 00Z. HAVE TAKEN A
MEAN FORECAST POSITION FROM THE MODELS TO ALIGN WITH THE NRN PART OF
SLIGHT RISK AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR WSWWD INTO
NCNTRL MO BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THERE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM ERN CO NWD INTO WRN SD AND NRN WY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ECNTRL CO AND
SE WY...SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE CO AND SE WY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5
TO 8.5 C/KM SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF A STORM
CLUSTER CAN ORGANIZE AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 30 2011, 08:14 PM
Post #18




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Chicago getting a watch soon.

Attached Image
QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...GREATER CHICAGO METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 010107Z - 010130Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR NERN IL AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN IND /GREATER
CHICAGO METRO/.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING WWD
ACROSS SERN WI AND NERN IL. 00Z GRB RAOB SHOWED AMPLE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2400 J/KG MUCAPE/ ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A
STOUT PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO NLY
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS--INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. RADAR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE STORMS
OVER SRN LAKE MICH DEVIATING TO A WEST OF SOUTH COMPONENT...FAVORING
THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS INTO THE GREATER CHICAGO METRO
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. KRAC RECENTLY MEASURED A 57 KT WIND GUST.
LARGE TO PERHAPS VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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Chicago Storm
post Jun 30 2011, 08:43 PM
Post #19




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From: The 630
Member No.: 13,697





QUOTE
0820 PM WATER SPOUT 9 ESE WINTHROP HARBOR 42.44N 87.67W
06/30/2011 LMZ777 IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER SPOUT SPOTTED EAST OF ZION


QUOTE
0819 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
06/30/2011 M81 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION
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The Snowman
post Jun 30 2011, 09:23 PM
Post #20




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Member No.: 24,567





Good evening all! Just got to see a nice lightning show on the drive home. Winds are really kicking up outside my door, I might just want to go sit outside. wink.gif


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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