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jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Due to multiple maps showing the 26th, the beginning date has been changed.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223641 · Replies: · Views: 1,889

NOTICE: GOES-16 Link
jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:54 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Hey gang!

Check this out!!!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/
  Forum: Weather Questions & Info · Post Preview: #2223562 · Replies: · Views: 15

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 04:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 24 2017, 02:50 PM) *
They had to raise the max just hours befkre.
Funny to see.. NWS Forecast for Chicago..
At 9am today they had 72 as the max for today.
At 10am they bumped it to 75
at 1pm they said 77
Now at 2pm they said 80 and its still higher! LOLOL


They are pretty clear in the history that they thought the cold front would move South, then updated it as a stationary front, and I find it not surprising that you didn't bold this part, thus supporting the "Funny to see" comment...

QUOTE
Confidence is pretty low on when
precisely this will reach the Chicago lakefront
, but presently
have that forecast somewhere between 6-8 pm.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2223524 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 02:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 24 2017, 02:25 PM) *
It is a bit cloudy across the ArkLaTex, but not across the western Gulf a.k.a. 'The Bubbly Bath Water'


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223504 · Replies: · Views: 7,707

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 02:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Mar 24 2017, 02:07 PM) *
Interesting

I thought RSI would be higher

March 2017 North American blizzard
Category 4 "Crippling" (RSI: 10.66)


Since it was a sleet event for the immediate I95 it's believable.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223503 · Replies: · Views: 4,544

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 02:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 24 2017, 01:40 PM) *
You are quick lol


Pales in comparison to your inside hook ups!

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 24 2017, 01:36 PM) *
The visible has been having some issues here and there but when it works and zoomed in it is amazing! I got to work and relieve the person who has been working with goes 16 and he was showing me all sorts of awesome stuff. Here is a blog he set up:

https://satelliteliaisonblog.wordpress.com

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223501 · Replies: · Views: 7,707

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 02:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 24 2017, 10:48 AM) *
If I had access to a satellite feed like this, I would never get any work done.


Preach it!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223498 · Replies: · Views: 7,707

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 01:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


It's tweets like these that make me laugh...

According to her, our research into SOI drops is "flawed" and it's not my data. That's basically saying anyone who uses the government data can't claim it's part of their research. Time to throw away all of our BSR, EAR, RRWT, and SOID research I guess because..."It's not his data" laugh.gif
Attached Image


She then adds to it claiming that she never knew the lag
Attached Image

Now is bragging that the "flawed" research has provided her company the ability to give a 2.5 week warning using a 20 day lag time. Interesting...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2223490 · Replies: · Views: 271,833

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 01:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(kpk33x @ Mar 24 2017, 11:06 AM) *
Interesting look back - notice that this post is from 2/26.

The only thing that may have happened different from the text is that we had additional snow in NE and southern Canada, so the cold has been a little more durable and sharper than guessed. But general pattern nailed.

Still from four weeks ago? Thumbs up on that one.


Thanks man! I brought up what went wrong in the "What Happened With The BSR" article on blog.organicforecasting.com. In fact, if you look at the 500mb chart, you can clearly see how 3 s/w's were very close to phasing and match that up with the dissipating slp off Cape Hatteras and you've got the Nor'easter.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2223487 · Replies: · Views: 271,833

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 10:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 24 2017, 08:03 AM) *
Credit to JDrenken for the link.

I download the images and make my own gifs.

But animations are available

http://climate.cod.edu/data/goes16/cenconus/

http://climate.cod.edu/data/goes16/


Check this blog out! wink.gif

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223459 · Replies: · Views: 7,707

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 10:19 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 24 2017, 09:11 AM) *
Yeah. The NAEFS has been "off" for the NE this month. I posted something in the long term winter thread about a week ago.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2221952


It's because it's an ensemble forecast. Look at what the CPC had

500mb heights


Probabilities


What it boils down to is the ENS didn't see the March 14th phase Nor'easter and, because of that, muted the cold anomalies compared to the operationals. The NAEFS is merely another tool in the box and has a history of performing very well in sniffing out the pattern at hand.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2223458 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2017, 11:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 22 2017, 01:04 PM) *
Not really. Lets see where we stand a few days from now.


Can't...stop...laughing. It took you less than 24 hours on the 22nd-23rd storm to call it.

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 09:13 PM) *
It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 19 2017, 06:13 PM) *
This threat isnt really a threat for anyone

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223321 · Replies: · Views: 4,544

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2017, 02:56 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 21 2017, 03:49 PM) *
They added IR and water vapor for the goes 16

http://climate.cod.edu/data/goes16/cenconus/

[attachment=324315:ezgif_3_0608936f61.gif]


Don't forget the different sectors! blink.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2223175 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 21 2017, 07:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 21 2017, 04:20 PM) *
Saw this and just had to....

[attachment=324321:batman.PNG]

Trying to substantiate that JD visited the Big Apple lately.

Or if Snowman11 was just playin around laugh.gif


laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2223152 · Replies: · Views: 271,833

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 21 2017, 01:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 20 2017, 07:26 PM) *
Can't remember what thread he mentioned it, but JD several days(maybe a week) ago mentioned the 24th and 26th for the next two systems of interest per Organic Forecasting. Probably something to it, rarely does he miss calls that far out when making them. Guessing he seen what was a strong signal as he was a little less cryptic than normal laugh.gif


Here is the post...

And the tweet.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223050 · Replies: · Views: 7,707

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 20 2017, 02:03 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


What Happened With The BSR?!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2222842 · Replies: · Views: 271,833

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 20 2017, 02:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


What Happened With The BSR?!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2222841 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 20 2017, 12:16 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 19 2017, 01:50 PM) *
3/19 12Z NAEFS:


I see an interesting pattern setting up for the late spring into summer. This is going to stink in one breath (heat) and might create some fireworks (NW Flow events) in another.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2222835 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 20 2017, 12:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 07:40 PM) *
Cool, thanks.


Amazing how one day can change one's mind. wink.gif

EDIT: A time period of less than 12 hours!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222834 · Replies: · Views: 2,721

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 19 2017, 01:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 03:30 PM) *
So did Steve D


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222678 · Replies: · Views: 9,443

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 19 2017, 01:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 04:57 PM) *
USCGAT - I don't think your title meets guideline specs. Just thought you might like to know.

Should be more like

March26-28, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm
Long Range Cogitation D7-10

Something more like that.


Yes...that does help. Not like it's pinned on how to create topics or nothin...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222677 · Replies: · Views: 15,797

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 19 2017, 01:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 09:15 PM) *
Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.


To be fair...it is more sw. Again...blanket statements like this above help nobody without details or pictures. Seems like a broken record...

Click to animate
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2222676 · Replies: · Views: 15,797

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 07:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 17 2017, 05:02 PM) *
Interesting. Thunderstorms in a northwesterly flow today. This kind of pattern is the ideal northwest flow outbreak setup in the summer. Just 3-5 months too early.




Keep this in mind! wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2222330 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 07:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 17 2017, 05:25 PM) *
Many thanks!

I hastily cobbled together a quick gif, I missed a couple frames so there's a couple jumps, but 5 minute increments, and the resolution.

Stunning

[attachment=323993:ezgif_3_156bfa85e8.gif]


I'm wiping off the drool from the pictures today myself! Hopefully they have the "meso" option as a "floater" for severe weather regions!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2222329 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 09:44 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,789
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


College of DuPage has the GEOS-16 data located here with slider animation.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2222192 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

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