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EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
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weather, physics and astronomy
Joined: 17-January 12
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Last Seen: 15th May 2018 - 05:33 PM
Local Time: Dec 12 2018, 09:36 PM
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3 Apr 2015
(Off-topic: The other thread appeared to be more on the wintry/non-convective aspect of the particular system moving through the region today, so I decided to create this thread to focus more on the convective nature of this system.)

Going back on topic, the GFS, NAM, and SREF have been showing for a long time now quite a bit of instability for some portions of the region today and tonight, and it appears that the past three-four model suites have been trending towards a more unstable solution as well, so some places could get a few, possibly strong to even severe thunderstorms today if the models verify. Some parts of the region (either today or tonight) have forecasted MU CAPE, LI, and (925mb-500mb) shear ranging from 100-1500 J/kg, 0 to -3 C, and 25-60 kts, respectively. A LLJ also shows up for the event so it could aid in developing some gusty (and possibly marginally severe) thunderstorms by being brought down to the surface.

In addition to the models ,the SPC also has a marginal 5% risk up to about Southern NJ, and a general T-Storm risk well into the Northeast, so it appears that thunderstorms are certainly possible today, and a few strong-to-severe storms aren't out of the question either.
28 Aug 2014
The GFS (and quite recently the NAM as well) is showing decent instability and weak-to-decent shear from the 31st of August, up to and including the 3rd of September. CAPE ranges from about 500-1500 J/kg (and in some places reaching up to 2000 J/kg), and LI ranges from 0 to about -6/-7. Combined with decent shear, storms, some perhaps strong to severe, could form, even in eastern areas, as the instability extends quite far east. A cold front approaching the region on the 3rd could also help storms form, so the 3rd could be more of an active day for severe storms.

GFS CAPE and shear, hours 84, (hour 90 GFS shows some more shear, but not as much instability, so..) and 132.
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26 Aug 2014
Both the NAM and the GFS are been showing parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic getting some weak to decent instability and shear tomorrow. Together with a cold front approaching the region, a few strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow, though mainly in inland areas. However, eastern areas might not get many storms, if any, as most runs show most of the instability and shear mainly inland, but a few storms might be able to form and perhaps make it into eastern regions provided enough instability, shear, and lift.

(Below: GFS CAPE, NAM CAPE and shear; hour 33.)
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12 Jun 2014
The GFS and ECMWF have been showing some instability between the 17th and 20th of June. The models disagree a bit on how many days of instability and shear there will be, as well has the strength and placement of the shear, but both the GFS and the Euro both still show instability and some weak shear as well in the region on one or possibly more than one of the relevant days, especially on the 17th, so the potential for instability and perhaps storms is still valid in this timeframe, albeit more so in the earlier part of the thread dates. Predicted CAPE and LI values range from 500-3000 J/kg, and 0 to -8 C. Together with some weak shear and instability, we could possibly have a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the region. And, of course, along with the instability and storms comes some heat and humidity as well, but that's another story.
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31 May 2014
The GFS is showing another potential severe weather threat between June 3rd and June 5th. Though with the 06z GFS there is barely any atmospheric instability or shear on the 4th, most runs have been consistently showing CAPE being between 500 and 2500 J/kg with LI between 0 and -8 for a large part of the region on the 3rd, and mainly south and west of southern Mass., NY, northern PA, etc... on the 5th. Now, while there isn't much shear on the 3rd (though some instability is present, though in my opinion any storms that pop up will probably be pulse-type storms), there is quite a bit of shear on the 5th, and with the front nearby, along with some instability, there could be some potentially severe storms in the region.
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