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> May 29/30, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm threat, Short Range Forecasts - D1/ Observations
Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 04:25 AM
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I'm not too impressed with the set up, nor the dynamics - but I guess it's possible. (*shrugs*)


QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-310815-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large
hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible between noon and 6 pm
today. An isolated weak, short-lived tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail are
possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
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MD Blue Ridge
post May 30 2017, 07:28 AM
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Fog is back in full effect this morning, I'm also not confident we see decent convection this afternoon but I guess anything is possible. Especially if sun can pop through.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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KENNYP2339
post May 30 2017, 11:19 AM
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Storms sure are firing off real good in central PA, super cells moving from SW to NE, I would venture to say there will be some warnings and some tornado warning as well, be careful out there in central northern PA and Southern upstate NY today
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE
Message:
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-PA125851490D20.SevereThunderstormWatch.12585155CEC
PA.WNSWOU9.c0b459ea889885c801d4ac3f1cf76bbb from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent:
12:40 EDT on 05-30-2017
Effective:
12:40 EDT on 05-30-2017
Expires:
20:00 EDT on 05-30-2017
Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Alert:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARMSTRONG BEDFORD
BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA
CAMERON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON CUMBERLAND
ELK FAYETTE FOREST
FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON
INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA
LYCOMING MCKEAN MIFFLIN
PERRY POTTER SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN TIOGA
UNION WARREN WESTMORELAND


QUOTE
Message:
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-PA125851490CBC.SevereThunderstormWarning.125851493
48PA.PBZSVRPBZ.caad2febbed874858fc77d3793d0fc5d from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent:
12:39 EDT on 05-30-2017
Effective:
12:39 EDT on 05-30-2017
Expires:
13:30 EDT on 05-30-2017
Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Jefferson County in west central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 130 PM EDT.

* At 1238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New
Bethlehem, or 12 miles southwest of Brookville, moving east at 20
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter-size hail.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles. Damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Brookville... Hawthorn...
Worthville... Anita...
This includes Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 81
and 82, and
between mile markers 85 and 86.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 11:47 AM
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Most of the watches and warning are for Western PA ATTM - have to see if they translate East of the Susquehanna - seems like the line that forms, quickly, breaks up as it get to this part of PA (Central and Eastern)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 30 2017, 11:49 AM
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phillyfan
post May 30 2017, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 30 2017, 12:47 PM) *
Most of the watches and warning are for Western PA ATTM - have to see if they translate East of the Susquehanna - seems like the line that forms, quickly, breaks up as it get to this part of PA (Central and Eastern)

Thick clouds still over here. Mist started back up around 11:30am. After misting most of the night last night and yesterday for a while during the day.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18
Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
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WEATHERFAN100
post May 30 2017, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE
Tornado Warning
PAC061-301800-
/O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0008.170530T1714Z-170530T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania...

* Until 200 PM EDT

* At 114 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Huntingdon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Huntingdon around 120 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Petersburg, Alexandria and Juniata College.


--------------------
-James
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NorEaster07
post May 30 2017, 02:22 PM
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10am-2pm loop.


Nice day in Ohio Valley Temps in 70s dews in 40s in Ohio!


Thunderstorms including Tornado warning in PA with hail and lightning. I wonder if the sun is enhancing those storms there?



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rtcemc
post May 30 2017, 02:41 PM
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Sort of been watching this one all day and does seem to be holding together and even blowing up a bit, UT. Why wouldn't it, we can't have a day without rain wink.gif
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 02:52 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ May 30 2017, 03:41 PM) *
Sort of been watching this one all day and does seem to be holding together and even blowing up a bit, UT. Why wouldn't it, we can't have a day without rain wink.gif
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar

With the constant cloud cover over Central and E PA, there should be too much CIN to allow for anything more than showers - so my comment was (supposed to be) more about the severe side of things, as it was to whether it could rain.
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 02:55 PM
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CTP lays it out pretty well

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1900Z radar shows several severe storms in the form of
distinct, rotating dime-quarter size hail producing mini
supercells, with a few additional bowing line segments across
south-central and west central PA. Moderately strong sfc-based
cape along with freezing levels around 10KFT have led to rather
tall rotating updrafts and hail cores.

Currently, the storm type based on 1) model hodographs, 2) EHI
values of 1-2 m2/s2 and 3) numerous runs of the HRRR favor
supercells while the southern PA storms seem to be
transitioning to bow/line segments.

Low LCL`s around 700m across central PA (and even lower over
the SE half of the CWA) along with good directional sheer could
allow for isolated, brief tornadoes. The potential for the one
or two EF0-EF1 tornadoes based on the strength of the LLVL
shear (and location of the relatively narrow north/south channel
of mdtly high cape) will be within the region bounded by a line
from KBFD- KFIG-KAOO- KHGR- KIPT- KELM
.

The storms will progress eastward and should continue into the
very early evening (with the target area between the I-99/rt220
and the wrn edge of the stratus deck across the SE half of the
CWA).

Based on the latest 12Z models and the past several HRRR runs,
convection is expected to push east across the shallow cool air
over and to the east of the Susq Valley and die out pretty
quickly around 00Z this evening
,
as showers/storms encounter
more stable environment across eastern Pa
and shortwave lifts
northeast into New Eng.

Additional weak shortwave energy is progged to rotate through
tonight. However, only very marginal instability will be left
over, resulting in only isold showers after midnight. Partial
clearing, wet ground and light wind will likely result in patchy
fog overnight across much of the region.
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 30 2017, 03:04 PM
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Haha welcome to east coast severe weather. If it's not timing its cloud cover. Yea I had better hopes from this morning of atleast mixing out this low level cloud layer but seems we failed. Most of it seems to be collapsing on itself east of the ridges so at this point wouldn't expect much to happen other then some rain later.

To think we were so close to having some clearing in MD and southern pa oh well onto the next.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 03:14 PM
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Attached Image
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NorEaster07
post May 30 2017, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 30 2017, 04:04 PM) *
Haha welcome to east coast severe weather. If it's not timing its cloud cover. .


Similar note, someone I was talking to from the south didnt know that our marine layer kills storms. Their marine layer down there produces them.
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 03:16 PM
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The test is upon us as the line enters the W part of my zones. Let's see how fast they dissolve - just had a few rumbles.
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rtcemc
post May 30 2017, 03:36 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 30 2017, 04:16 PM) *
The test is upon us as the line enters the W part of my zones. Let's see how fast they dissolve - just had a few rumbles.

I am fine with it dissolving. It was a stroke of brilliance on my part though to plant grass in several areas last week. Seldom have the neighbors seen RC out with the hose, and won't need it today either. When(if) the sun ever comes out again, man the grass will blow up faster than a hostage plowing through a buffet line.....
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phillyfan
post May 30 2017, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ May 30 2017, 04:36 PM) *
I am fine with it dissolving. It was a stroke of brilliance on my part though to plant grass in several areas last week. Seldom have the neighbors seen RC out with the hose, and won't need it today either. When(if) the sun ever comes out again, man the grass will blow up faster than a hostage plowing through a buffet line.....

Did grass seed last year in May did well then the drought came and it died... Did have a break in the mist here for a little bit, but now the mist is back with vengeance.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18
Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 03:46 PM
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One more rumble and just some light to moderate rain. Reallightning maps are active only back over State College - maybe Clapper gets clipped?

(another rumble as I hit enter - but no vis lightning ATTM)
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2017, 04:02 PM
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Didn't even get very wet at all, as I went out to the mailbox (35' away), so I'd call it "light" despite the radar looking far more impressive. Barely even a breeze ATTM and that line is all but through here.
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rtcemc
post May 30 2017, 04:03 PM
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Reds seem to be shrinking; would expect similar with the yellows. So just a heavy shower or two, and we sure need it dry.gif
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