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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
jdrenken
post Today, 02:13 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Jan 23 2018, 12:45 PM) *
Do you think phase 8 of the MJO is NOT a cold signal blink.gif


I honestly can't stop laughing. I will answer your question with a simple one from me...

Where did I say phase 8 is not a cold signal?

I will leave it at this...

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/9...46%7Ctwterm%5E3

JB tweets how horrible the long range MJO forecast was vs the OBS. Keeping that in mind, how are we supposed to believe his long range MJO extrapolating of the amplitude when he just proves it stinks?


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RobB
post Today, 03:13 PM
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1/23 12Z Euro EPS daily 850 and 2 meter temp anomalies (click to loop)

Attached File(s)
Attached File  850mbtempanomaly.gif ( 1.84MB ) Number of downloads: 17
Attached File  2meteranomaly.gif ( 1.95MB ) Number of downloads: 18
 
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NorEaster07
post Today, 04:30 PM
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https://twitter.com/TylerABC57/status/955913438315806720

Attached File  Screenshot_20180123_163054.jpg ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 7


Edit: Fyi, Im not buying the whole hooplah about this cold for February but i think im losing support on that. Do any tellies, models or mets say normal or warmth will prevail? Or at least not as deeply cold?

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Today, 04:33 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Today, 04:56 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 23 2018, 06:30 PM) *
https://twitter.com/TylerABC57/status/955913438315806720

Attached File  Screenshot_20180123_163054.jpg ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 7


Edit: Fyi, Im not buying the whole hooplah about this cold for February but i think im losing support on that. Do any tellies, models or mets say normal or warmth will prevail? Or at least not as deeply cold?



It looks to be having the mean trough trhrough the midwest which would put the colder side closer to the front range of the rockies through much of the midwest and then would eventually translate east but it looks as though at this point the battle zone is across the east so some heavy wet snows or some hefty rains. I think a big indicator for what may happen there is the progression of MJO last time we went through this same region was right around early December time frame. During this time we had warm weather across the east early in the month then a week or so of colder temps (average) and then one more final warm push just before christmas. I would think a fairly similar pattern would evolve but with the way climo is progressing the mean trough would in fact be further west.

I say we go battle ground with cold intrusions and warm intrusions depending on just how sharp the troughing gets.


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NorEaster07
post Today, 08:54 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 23 2018, 04:56 PM) *
It looks to be having the mean trough trhrough the midwest which would put the colder side closer to the front range of the rockies through much of the midwest and then would eventually translate east but it looks as though at this point the battle zone is across the east so some heavy wet snows or some hefty rains. I think a big indicator for what may happen there is the progression of MJO last time we went through this same region was right around early December time frame. During this time we had warm weather across the east early in the month then a week or so of colder temps (average) and then one more final warm push just before christmas. I would think a fairly similar pattern would evolve but with the way climo is progressing the mean trough would in fact be further west.

I say we go battle ground with cold intrusions and warm intrusions depending on just how sharp the troughing gets.


Good post. True, mean trough can be over central / MW, not east/NE
..

Here's another one.

https://twitter.com/EricWFMJ/status/955979383289925632

Attached File  Screenshot_20180123_205130.png ( 1.14MB ) Number of downloads: 4


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