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> Dec. 22-25 S.ON, S.Que Storm
SixthSense
post Dec 14 2013, 03:02 PM
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I know we are in the midst of a decent snowstorm for everyone in Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, but I wanted to throw out the possibilities that are on the horizon. What was looking like a GLC around the 22nd timeframe is slowly evolving into a much more easterly event. Beyond that I sense the models are starting to pick up dynamics that are signalling a MAJOR east coast snow storm. The storm around the 23/24th has the potential to be a monster for us in Ontario.
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Attached File  gfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.21K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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Ryan45
post Dec 14 2013, 03:15 PM
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So glad that GLC is shifting east...don't want my nice snow melting LOL..


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bigmt
post Dec 14 2013, 03:24 PM
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System is more an Apps/inland runner (and somewhat flat on most depictions) than a coastal storm, at least as of today's guidance.

12z Euro is a close call with a track very near ON but probably a pretty good place to be at this range.

12z GEFS @ hour 216:

Attached File  f216.gif ( 164.74K ) Number of downloads: 7
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theyoungweatherm...
post Dec 14 2013, 03:25 PM
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I think the storm you are looking at here is the one after the infamous "GLC", which will run around the 19th to 21st period.


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bigmt
post Dec 14 2013, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(theyoungweatherman @ Dec 14 2013, 03:25 PM) *
I think the storm you are looking at here is the one after the infamous "GLC", which will run around the 19th to 21st period.


Yeah but there's basically only a mention of the dreaded cutter (which looks mercifully tame for the moment) before he specifies it's the follow-up disturbance this thread is addressing.

Or at least that was my interpretation, not trying to put words in anyone's mouth.
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Ryan45
post Dec 14 2013, 05:08 PM
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Apologies, I think I got the wrong storm...LOL


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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 14 2013, 09:17 PM
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I think the Dec.16 - 21 clipper thread could address the potential GLC on Friday or Saturday, and this thread could address the potential behind it....just a thought wink.gif
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 14 2013, 09:31 PM
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Here is the GFS at hr 216, looks pretty nice for E.Ont ATM (will change, its the GFS..). Looks like an amazing storm for PEI and Nova Scotia on the 24th wink.gif

Attached File  gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 61.4K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Dec 14 2013, 09:33 PM
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SixthSense
post Dec 14 2013, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Dec 14 2013, 09:17 PM) *
I think the Dec.16 - 21 clipper thread could address the potential GLC on Friday or Saturday, and this thread could address the potential behind it....just a thought wink.gif



Good point.
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bigmt
post Dec 15 2013, 06:40 AM
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WPC surface forecast, day 7:

Attached File  9nhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
SECONDARY OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST... APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF DAY 7...WITH WINTER
P-TYPE OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AS VERY SHALLOW
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND...DAY 7.
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 15 2013, 07:56 AM
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TWN shows nothing for this area during the timeframe of the 22-24th, but does have 10cms for the 25th, but I suspect that is a clipper system unsure.gif
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SixthSense
post Dec 15 2013, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Dec 15 2013, 07:56 AM) *
TWN shows nothing for this area during the timeframe of the 22-24th, but does have 10cms for the 25th, but I suspect that is a clipper system unsure.gif



TWN confuses me some times. Both the GFS and EURO show a storm system riding up the coast. EURO just grazes us but the GFS Ontario on the western side. I understand them not wanting to throw all their chips at models that are 7-8 days out but they stick their neck out to say we will get 10cm on Christmas Day (10 days out)........but then again forecasting snow on Christmas would definitely gain a captive audience wouldn't it. laugh.gif

EURO AT 192HR

This post has been edited by SixthSense: Dec 15 2013, 09:18 AM
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SixthSense
post Dec 15 2013, 09:19 AM
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GFS AT 204HR
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 15 2013, 09:55 AM
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QUOTE(SixthSense @ Dec 15 2013, 09:08 AM) *
TWN confuses me some times. Both the GFS and EURO show a storm system riding up the coast. EURO just grazes us but the GFS Ontario on the western side. I understand them not wanting to throw all their chips at models that are 7-8 days out but they stick their neck out to say we will get 10cm on Christmas Day (10 days out)........but then again forecasting snow on Christmas would definitely gain a captive audience wouldn't it. laugh.gif

EURO AT 192HR

TWN is often confusing tongue.gif If they were sticking with just the Euro I can see them saying nothing will happen. Hard to trust just the GFS, but lets see what happens in the next couple runs...
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bigmt
post Dec 15 2013, 01:11 PM
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12z GGEM @ hour 180:

Attached File  PT_PN_180_0000close.gif ( 116.52K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  PT_PN_180_0000.gif ( 158.47K ) Number of downloads: 3
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winter48
post Dec 15 2013, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 15 2013, 01:11 PM) *
12z GGEM @ hour 180:

Attached File  PT_PN_180_0000close.gif ( 116.52K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  PT_PN_180_0000.gif ( 158.47K ) Number of downloads: 3

Hi Bigmt,

Could you please tell me what the colours on this map represent? That looks like mixed precip for us or am I completely wrong (hoping I'm wrong and it's snow of course!)
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bigmt
post Dec 15 2013, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Dec 15 2013, 02:18 PM) *
Hi Bigmt,

Could you please tell me what the colours on this map represent? That looks like mixed precip for us or am I completely wrong (hoping I'm wrong and it's snow of course!)


Sure thing, each colour has 5 shades of intensity.

Green - rain
Blue - snow
Pink - ice pellets
Red - freezing rain
Yellow - mixed precip
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bigmt
post Dec 15 2013, 02:39 PM
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The 12z Euro is mild next Friday with some showers before the front is through. The follow-up wave on Monday the 23rd is a miss to the east for ON and QUE before some light snow moves in on Christmas Day.
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winter48
post Dec 15 2013, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 15 2013, 02:22 PM) *
Sure thing, each colour has 5 shades of intensity.

Green - rain
Blue - snow
Pink - ice pellets
Red - freezing rain
Yellow - mixed precip

Thanks very much! smile.gif
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willyswagon
post Dec 15 2013, 02:55 PM
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Someone at work said warm and rain for Atlantic Canada at the end of this week.
I hope that is wrong.
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