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> Dec. 22-25 S.ON, S.Que Storm
bigmt
post Dec 15 2013, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(willyswagon @ Dec 15 2013, 02:55 PM) *
Someone at work said warm and rain for Atlantic Canada at the end of this week.
I hope that is wrong.


Well you have another shot at a snow event midweek as the clipper tracking through ON redevelops along the NE coast and intensifies moving into your region.

Good chance for a warmup by Fri/Sat ahead of the next cold front though.
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Aylmer
post Dec 15 2013, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 15 2013, 02:39 PM) *
The 12z Euro is mild next Friday with some showers before the front is through. The follow-up wave on Monday the 23rd is a miss to the east for ON and QUE before some light snow moves in on Christmas Day.


Well, I don't have access to all ECMWF data, but looking at the 850mb temps, it looks a fair bit cooler, just briefly grazing 0 in Ottawa as opposed to 5C in the 00z. Just east of us in Montrťal, it stays below -5 as opposed to a prolonged period of 0-5C as depicted in the previous run.

The latest GFS is also pretty favourable:



This post has been edited by Aylmer: Dec 15 2013, 03:41 PM
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blizzardOf96
post Dec 15 2013, 04:05 PM
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Euro ENS look tasty with the second wave. Similar track to yesterday's storm, heading through eastern ohio and upstate NY minus the coastal/Miller B redevelopment. Wouldn't be surprised if the swath of snow trends north.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Dec 15 2013, 04:05 PM


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knorthern_knight
post Dec 16 2013, 12:33 AM
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FIM8 shows a system with precip just grazing the north shore of Lakes Erie and Ontario, along the St Lawrence to Cornwall, and then due east along the Quebec border. Nothing beyond scatterd flurries for anywhere in Ontario/Quebec. Of course, if the system moves 100 km or so north, it gives us something to look forward to...

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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 05:07 AM
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The 00z Euro brings the wave right through ON with a track which would be too close for comfort but remains a decent spot to be in this far removed from the event.

00z GFS @ hour 168:

Attached File  gfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 59.3K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 192:

Attached File  gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 68.17K ) Number of downloads: 1


00z GGEM @ hour 168:

Attached File  PT_PN_168_0000.gif ( 159.23K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  PT_PN_168_0000close.gif ( 113.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
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robv1989
post Dec 16 2013, 06:29 AM
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On the weather networks website, last night it was calling for 15-20 mm rain on Saturday, I just checked it now and Saturday is -2 C with close to 20 cm of snow. This is for Hamilton, Toronto is in the 10-15 cm range. The day before this is mild at 6 c with 5-10 mm of rain, but if we get another large storm on the 21st then it more then makes up for it.

On a side note, the weather network is calling for close to 5 cm for the overnight in Hamilton and surrounding areas, is this due to a clipper?

This post has been edited by robv1989: Dec 16 2013, 06:31 AM
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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 06:37 AM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Dec 16 2013, 06:29 AM) *
On a side note, the weather network is calling for close to 5 cm for the overnight in Hamilton and surrounding areas, is this due to a clipper?


Yep.

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robv1989
post Dec 16 2013, 06:52 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 16 2013, 06:37 AM) *
Yep.

Attached File  650x366_12160924_hd27.jpg ( 66.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


Thanks Big, very active pattern so far, the 3-5 cm will help everyone keep their snow a little longer in the event of a rain storm.
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Ryan45
post Dec 16 2013, 07:06 AM
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Dear god...this would be ah-mazing! laugh.gif
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robv1989
post Dec 16 2013, 07:10 AM
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I just noticed close to 15 cm on saturday O_O It must be from the same storm, so if that were to verify it's a 35 cm storm from the 21st into the 22nd.
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Ryan45
post Dec 16 2013, 07:15 AM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Dec 16 2013, 07:10 AM) *
I just noticed close to 15 cm on saturday O_O It must be from the same storm, so if that were to verify it's a 35 cm storm from the 21st into the 22nd.


Notice the East/Northeast winds?? Lake enhancement again for sure! cool.gif


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Torontoweather
post Dec 16 2013, 07:24 AM
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I fear that this will trend/shift NW but perhaps depending on where the storm before it tracks that's where the baroclonix zone will setup so IMO we want the one before ot to track further SE as well.

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Dec 16 2013, 07:25 AM


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robv1989
post Dec 16 2013, 07:25 AM
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robv1989
post Dec 16 2013, 07:27 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 16 2013, 07:24 AM) *
I fear that this will trend/shift NW but perhaps depending on where the storm before it tracks that's where the baroclonix zone will setup so IMO we want the one before ot to track further SE as well.


Meteorologically speaking, how likely of a setup is it?

This post has been edited by robv1989: Dec 16 2013, 07:27 AM
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Torontoweather
post Dec 16 2013, 07:30 AM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Dec 16 2013, 07:27 AM) *
Meteorologically speaking, how likely of a setup is it?


Unfortunately at this point is have to favour the more nw solution but if the high pressure is stronger, and also the fact that there's a good snowpack could help to push it SE/remain colder. Hard to tell at this point which solution will win out, but the SREF seems to be in the southern camp which is certainly not a bad sign.


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SixthSense
post Dec 16 2013, 07:30 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Dec 16 2013, 07:15 AM) *
Notice the East/Northeast winds?? Lake enhancement again for sure! cool.gif



Got up this morning and things are edging towards more favourable for most of us. Thanks for the updates. Only looked at the GFS thus far today and it shows a strong LP system moving northeast out of the panhandle/gulf of mexico. Good track for Ontario. We shall see what the models do as we move closer to the weekend.
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 16 2013, 07:40 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Dec 16 2013, 07:06 AM) *
Dear god...this would be ah-mazing! laugh.gif

Ya TWN has us for 25 - 30 cm for Dec.22, but it's TWN, its just entertainment for now... tongue.gif There seems to be 2 camps on the models for this one, either misses us to the south and east, or comes NW and we get mixing again, I'm hoping the solution is right in the middle wink.gif
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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 07:43 AM
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Not sure I'd describe it as strong but it's got an impressive moisture connection to the Gulf and we're on the colder side of the boundary on the last couple of depictions.

00z GFS @ hour 192:

Attached File  gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 68.17K ) Number of downloads: 1


06z GFS @ hour 171:

Attached File  gfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.69K ) Number of downloads: 4
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weatherman 23
post Dec 16 2013, 07:44 AM
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Amazing 00Z euro run! Wow!!
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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 07:47 AM
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QUOTE(weatherman 23 @ Dec 16 2013, 07:44 AM) *
Amazing 00Z euro run! Wow!!


CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z DEC16
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 06Z 22-DEC  -1.7     0.6    1015      85      91    0.00     558     546    
SUN 12Z 22-DEC  -2.1     1.7    1005      95     100    0.44     554     550    
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  -0.5     4.5     995      92      89    0.89     548     552    
MON 00Z 23-DEC  -4.9    -4.4    1009      81      82    0.06     544     537
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