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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:46 PM


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Definitely see an enhanced risk tomorrow for Pennsylvania. Winds are much more veered there than the OV. As the line progresses, it's only going to encounter an even more unstable and equally sheared environment... so conditions will become even more favorable for severe weather in the 4 hours past this frame. Also gotta watch for cells that pop ahead of the line because they could be supercellular... especially in eastern PA.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234901 · Replies: · Views: 261

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:20 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 21 2017, 05:51 PM) *
PNA will once again determine a lot for winter. If the recent spike in +PNA & upcoming spike is indeed a trend that continues into winter then we will have a great winter. However, if predominant -PNA returns like last winter then expect last winter. Some -PNA is fine, but we need these strong spikes & a little NAO help to really give us the winter we want. I think we will get NAO help this winter...at least more than last winter due to -QBO & low solar.

Yes, I know it's not that simple but certainly is one of the biggest factors to watch.

Right. Also, NE Pacific is forecast to be a lot cooler than last winter. Hopefully this means there'll be an abundance of western troughs. Those are fun.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234890 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:42 PM


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The OU weather station in Athens, OH saw some effects from the Eclipse. Insolation decreased, temp decreased, RH increased, 2m-0m temp difference increased, and most interestingly, wind speed decreased.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234876 · Replies: · Views: 47,528

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:45 PM


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Never mind. In hind sight, there was a hint of a supercell just east of Olivet, now it's become much more apparent. Lots of inflow going into that cell southwest of Beresford... can be seen in velocities (green) and correlation coefficient (bottom left screen in the shades of blues and dark blue)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234863 · Replies: · Views: 598

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 21 2017, 02:36 PM) *
Incoming meteor laugh.gif

What's even better is we have severe weather going on right now, so all the radar and satellite images will be saved in SPC's severe weather archive smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234862 · Replies: · Views: 47,528

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:06 PM


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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Nice bow echo. Warned for baseball size hail and 70 MPH winds. In case you didn't know, supercells make up an extreme majority of >2" hail events. This is likely one of the exceptions.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234856 · Replies: · Views: 598

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:07 PM


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It's 1:00PM and it's already 91 degrees. This is our 10th day above 90 degrees this year. Last year saw 40 days. rolleyes.gif Our last 90 degree day last year was at the very beginning of November though, so it's certainly not over... but we aren't gonna hit 40 days this year.

(I use the data from KHAO airport in Hamilton, OH... so the data is often quite different from what CVG or DAY records, but I feel it's more accurate due to the urban heat island)
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234850 · Replies: · Views: 47,528

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:27 AM


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3 of 4 ENSO regions are now in Nina territory

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234849 · Replies: · Views: 43,300

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 11:27 PM


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Definitely seeing a greater severe threat in the mid-Atlantic and possibly some of the Northeast. Winds are veered there while they're unidirectional in the OV.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234830 · Replies: · Views: 598

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 10:59 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 20 2017, 11:31 PM) *
Also I totally disagree with fall JAMSTEC fall forecast

...oh yeah, fall is a thing. laugh.gif



Another frustrating JAMSTEC update.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234828 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 10:19 PM


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Latest JAMSTEC is still trending toward a cooler ENSO... Nino 3.4 still not below 0 though.

Definite -PDO too.


d'oh
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234825 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 10:18 PM


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JAMSTEC is still trending cooler. Getting close to Nino 3.4 being <0 for the winter.




Showing potential for a multi-year Nina though! I'll have to look into how long ago it was that it was predicting such an event.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234824 · Replies: · Views: 43,300

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 09:40 PM


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Interesting special weather statement

QUOTE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-210900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville,
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford,
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
308 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 /208 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...

High pressure continues to build into the region. This will bring
dry and increasingly hot weather to the region on Monday.

High temperatures Monday are expected to warm into the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to be in the mid
and upper 60s which will produce afternoon heat indices in the 95
to 100 degree range. The highest heat indices are expected
between 1 and 6 PM local time.

With a large number of people expected to be outdoors on Monday due
to the upcoming solar eclipse, the potential for heat related
illness may increase. This will be especially true for those not
accustomed to the typical heat and humidity of late August in the
Ohio Valley.


If you are planning to be outside for a long period of time on
Monday, you should dress accordingly by wearing lightweight and
light colored clothing. Be sure to drink plenty of water and find
opportunities to keep cool in the shade if possible.


Curious what's gonna happen with the heat and humidity expected, then the eclipse happens and it's suddenly cold. I read on weather.com that storms can pop due to the eclipse because the path of totality is so cold that the airmass acts like a cold front. I wanna see that happen.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234823 · Replies: · Views: 598

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 08:37 PM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 15 2017, 08:19 PM) *
Submerged cold pool really building up now


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234819 · Replies: · Views: 43,300

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 19 2017, 10:56 PM


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Looks like a widespread damaging wind event. Hoping for the cold front to slow down a bit.

It feels like I've seen this kind of squall/broken squall 5000 times


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234781 · Replies: · Views: 598

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 19 2017, 10:03 PM


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Tonight marks the 3rd night in a row with big tornadoes and huge hail in the Midwest. Is this the middle of August or the middle of May? rolleyes.gif Also, they found 4 EF1s and 1 EF2 from last nights tornadoes.

QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 19 2017, 11:25 AM) *
I've been stalking the MW/OV/GL threads for a couple weeks now with more interest because I am moving to the Champaign-Urbana, IL area.

After living in PA and then NH I'll have to get a little more used to severe thunderstorms (and flat land). See everyone in future threads!

Nice! You're in for a treat. Just don't get near Springfield, IL. Weathermonger has that place virtually storm free.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234779 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 19 2017, 10:00 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 19 2017, 10:56 PM) *
I think it's a given this will be at least a weak Nina winter.

If anything, I becoming convinced models are still playing catchup on ENSO

Definitely playing catch up. It's funny to think JAMSTEC was expecting a Super Nino just 4 updates ago rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234778 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 19 2017, 09:32 PM


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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Aug 18 2017, 11:50 PM) *
[attachment=327512:figure4.gif]

Gotta say, I'm having a hard time accepting the CFS with open arms like you are. Don't get me wrong, I realize the others have come down, but it's still the cold outlier. How does that phrase go that JD brings up periodically? See triple, hit in the middle?

Valid point. However... it's the subsurface cold pool that has developed, the tendency for enhanced trade winds lately, and consequently the +SOI, that has me leaning more Nina. This month's JAMSTEC update will be interesting because its been trending cooler since April... and as of July, it was favoring a high-end warm neutral event. IMO that's nonsense.

I saw on Twitter that UKMET also made a jump toward at least a cold neutral event... possibly weak Nina. Can't find the SSTA map that was posted, but I found ensemble plumes. This was updated on August 11.



July update



With all that said, I'm not necessarily sold on a Nina winter YET. I addressed this in one of my posts earlier on this page. Would like to see JAMSTEC jump on board. But I definitely am favoring at least a cold neutral event now. I was talking about 2000-2001 as a possible analog because we've been talking about cold-neutral and Nina analogs for at least the past page, so I just wanted to throw my 2 cents in there.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 17 2017, 09:11 PM) *
By the way, I'm just assuming this winter is a Nina just out of simplicity sake. It's becoming more apparent this may be another Nina winter, but it's not set in stone yet.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234776 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 10:16 PM


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2000-2001 had -QBO, weak La Nina, and weakly positive PDO. It was a heavily frontloaded winter.

June 2000 QBO: -7.83
July 2000 QBO: -13.13

June 2017 QBO: -3.18
July 2017 QBO: -10.48





Breakdown




Only downside I see to this analog is how it's largely based in Nino 3.4 and 4 (central to west-based). Too early to tell if this Nina will be similar, but I doubt it's going to be that west-based. But overall definitely a good match for the setup we're currently expecting.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234728 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 08:34 PM


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Watching for the cycle. Notice the greens popping up due south of the TVS. This exact same thing happened last time it cycled.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234723 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 08:29 PM


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Tornado has significantly weakened or lifted
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234722 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 08:24 PM


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No more debris signature but most likely a tornado on the ground; weak echo hole spotted (yellow triangle). Melvin, IA about to get hit... population of 214.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234720 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 08:17 PM


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PDS warning
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234718 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 08:16 PM


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Unfortunately have a debris signature on CC and Zdr. 130 MPH G2G rotation.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234717 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 08:11 PM


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120 MPH G2G rotation
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234716 · Replies: · Views: 1,582

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