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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 12:28 AM


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591dm ridge--same strength as the subtropical ridge over Florida-- over NE Pacific. You need a new scale to gauge the anomaly. It is 3.8 sigma anomaly though... ridiculous.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259042 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 12:27 AM


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Latest

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3
15NOV2017     20.6-1.0     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.4
22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259041 · Replies: · Views: 86,586

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 10 2017, 10:47 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 10 2017, 09:30 PM) *
Lol....some big GEFS ensemble member snow accumulations around Christmas, but this member tops them all. Don't know if I've ever seen such a eye candy map. Ha....just for giggles:

Yea, big swath of 20-35 inches....lol


Facebook and Twitter, here I come laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2258706 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 02:45 PM


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Look at that monster PV

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2258000 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 02:34 AM


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Flights from Seattle to DC would only take an hour laugh.gif


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2257420 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 02:21 AM


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Wow




Highs in the 70's on Christmas Eve Eve Eve. Meanwhile near 0 degree highs are found just a couple states to the north


At least it has snow falling on Christmas Eve

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2257419 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 12:54 AM


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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 8 2017, 10:46 PM) *
Yea, I knew ridge was expected from Nina...just thought stratosphere was ironic. Like I said though...if there was coupling east would've been really cold in that image but it wasn't, so it may just be coincidental at this point.

I think when one feature is especially strong it can be coupled when other features aren't, like the Alaskan ridge. I can't imagine it's just a coincidence that they appear coupled. I can't imagine there are too many things in the atmosphere that happen coincidentally
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2257411 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 06:46 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Beautiful pattern for plains, OV on late 18z GFS. Wondering if there's stratosphere/troposphere coupling & that is one cause for ridge over Alaska to be so prominent in guidance?



QUOTE(grace @ Dec 8 2017, 06:31 PM) *


You'd think yes...but if that were the case the east would be cold. smile.gif

Good to see that pattern return. That's the fun stuff. Interesting regarding the Alaskan ridge apparently being coupled to the Stratosphere. But some kind of Alaskan/Aleutian/Bering ridge is expected from Ninas. Bering/Aleutian ridge was seen throughout 2010-11, for example.

Wow... laugh.gif blink.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2257222 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 05:01 PM


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Poor verification of the AO/NAO. This cold spell still verified regardless because of the MJO pumpign ++PNA.




Even though it's looking warm in the very long-range, it's not like the cold is retreating to the North Pole. It's going to stay in Canada, and with the SE ridge (kinda flattened) in place, I think there's potential for some interesting winter storms. Hoping for some Rockie lee cyclogenesis.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2257143 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 02:08 AM


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Minimum wind chill... 15.6F... ugh.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2256598 · Replies: · Views: 5,087

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 8 2017, 02:04 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 7 2017, 10:56 PM) *
Now that is crazy! Imagine if it were to stick around what that would do to the albedo budget with being that far south and pretty widespread but too bad it will be gone in a day.



QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 7 2017, 11:04 PM) *
True, didnt think of the city and prep stuff. Do they even have salt or plows there? Lol. And I think temps were in the 80s 2 days ago. Not sure of the forecast going forward but I also doubt it will stick around much


Yeah, there's no way it's going to effect the albedo budget.. lol. Looks like they're getting a few inches down there, but given their latitude, I'd imagine it won't stick around for long. It's enough to remind people that it can snow at that latitude, but that's about it.

I don't mean to downplay how far south the snow has gotten though. It's ridiculous that Mexico has gotten more snow than most of us have.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256597 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 07:58 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 7 2017, 07:34 PM) *
Only thing that keeps me hesitant in the near term of the pattern not reloading is the SST anom configuration currently.

[attachment=334582:anomnigh...2.7.2017.gif]

I don't see this pattern like this with its longevity unless we get back into an MJO wave. It's causing a Nino-like pattern, and this certainly isn't a Nino.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256397 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 07:26 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 7 2017, 07:23 PM) *
Not a setup I remember seeing often... or in December.


I think I see why the front can't pass Florida with this configuration. Bottom of the ridge still hanging on there + the Sub Tropical Jet Stream is in play..
I also see why the Jet stream is digging to Mexico on a positive tilt. The Atlantic Ridge doesn't wanna budge. And that's a player for the coastal snow in Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Cool to see everything happening
7pmEST Dec 7, 2017 300mb Height & Metar Map

[attachment=334576:Map24.jpg]
Current Alerts.. Is that Winter Storm Warning for Texas? Maybe someone can post a message from there?

[attachment=334578:Alerts.jpg]
Closer up

[attachment=334577:Alerts1.jpg]


QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 7 2017, 02:45 PM) *
I am beginning to forget what a winter storm warning is like sad.gif wink.gif




QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 7 2017, 04:42 PM) *
Look at Corpus Christi down there laugh.gif Also some winter storm warnings down in southern Mississippi now too.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256377 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 06:54 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 7 2017, 06:44 PM) *
I think it was DT tweeted some awesome QBO research several weeks ago. If I get time to look I'll post it but I'm thinking anything under -20 but precisely between -10-20 was the best for winter purposes.
EDIT: Also I remember reading in the last couple of years that a strengthening -QBO throughout winter is not as good as a peak negative in the fall & slight rise through winter. I'll post that also if I can find it. That would bode well if trend holds

2000-01 decreased from November to December then continued to rise from December through March. That would explain that winter.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256341 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 06:52 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 7 2017, 06:45 PM) *
Wanna say around -20 but how is 50mb looking has that switched or is it still stuck right around that region.

I don't know that much about the QBO, I just know how to read that data page and know what positive and negative values imply for our weather wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256338 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 06:41 PM


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Latest QBO number is in.

November 2017: -17.20 (0.41 decrease)
October 2017: -16.79 (1.51 decrease)
September 2017: -15.28 (0.86 decrease)

Not sure at what point we leave the sweet spot and move into "too strong". I think we're still in the sweet spot.

November 2000 QBO was -15.07, by the way... stayed around -15 through the winter.

2013-14 stayed around +13

2010-11 stayed around +10

2005-06 stayed around -22

1985-86 stayed around +9
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256330 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 05:28 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 7 2017, 04:52 PM) *
Havent taken a look in awhile at the Strat and nina region so that may help give some insight. We need a reload period of course which will be fine with me just wait until after christmas wanna see some snow stick around for awhile.

Not much going on in the Stratosphere. Per Tropicaltidbits, Nina just spread west. We'll see if it translates in the next updates.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256247 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 04:50 PM


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Very far out and lots of uncertainty but looking more and more Nina like in the 12z EPS. Building up a southern ridge and the coldest anomalies pushing west opens the window for a favorable storm track for the Midwest compared to the current one which favors the east coast.




EPS has a clear trend toward -PNA/+EPO... also pretty typical of Ninas.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256209 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 04:42 PM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 7 2017, 02:45 PM) *
I am beginning to forget what a winter storm warning is like sad.gif wink.gif

Look at Corpus Christi down there laugh.gif Also some winter storm warnings down in southern Mississippi now too.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2256190 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 09:59 AM


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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Dec 7 2017, 09:34 AM) *
What is causing the disgustingly hot, dry western ridge to keep being modeled to push into the central? Im hating it already.

The MJO that's forcing the western ridge (+PNA) is going to die in about 12 days. When the MJO dies, the pattern is going to change. We'll start to see the pattern resemble more Nina characteristics
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2255904 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 7 2017, 01:07 AM


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EAR has a trough over Japan through the 11th. Also notice the strong ridge over Mongolia, which, from my experience, correlates well with the west US. Add 6-10 days to this, or just take the middle man, and that's December 19.



Mongolian ridge breaks down, Korean ridge builds (central US ridge), and still some leftover troughiness in Japan. Would correlate to December 21.



Later in the run, negative height anomalies return over a large area of east Asia. Far way out... would suggest coast-to-coast cool weather. Would correlate to December 26.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2255803 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 6 2017, 11:05 PM


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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Dec 6 2017, 10:24 PM) *
Pna weakening some can definitely help central states like MO, KS, NE get/stay in cold with the ridge likely backing off some/breaking down. Is roughly a neutral pna generally best for central cold?

Nope, +PNA is best for cold east of the Rockies. Not really much of a signal for neutral PNA. But +PNA really pushes the storm tracks east, so Midwesterners want the PNA to relax a bit... which is what Grace has been saying. Don't want it to relax too much though.

+PNA Decembers


Neutral PNA Decembers
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2255789 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 6 2017, 06:13 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 6 2017, 05:23 PM) *
Which is why I can't understand Cliche's "more love" comment. We go zonal in a Nina and that most likely results in many frowns from the winter loving crowd.



QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 6 2017, 05:32 PM) *
I think his 'Love' comment is in answer to DenverWeather's post of a lack of moisture (including mountain snows) in the 1/3rd or so of the CONUS due to the ridging there. Thus the relaxing of said ridge may improve those conditions over what is there now...

At least I think this is what he is referring to smile.gif

Correct.

I disagree about the tendency for Ninas to be zonal. Ninas cause the jet stream to be weaker than average because of the decreased temp gradient between the equator and pole. When you have a weaker jet stream, it tends to be more meridional (think of a jump rope that's being held tightly vs. being held loosely). This isn't always the case and the jet stream does go fast and zonal from time to time, but it's usually seen more in Ninos.

With a Nina, especially one of this intensity, we can expect the PNA to be negative (i.e., lack of persistent western ridging and SE ridge). The lack of persistent western ridging allows systems to enter the west coast. Then the SE ridge pushes the storm track NW, so Colorado, the Plains, and the upper Midwest get the snow.

Obviously this is generalized, there's more that goes into the weather than the Nina but it's a big part I think especially later in the winter we'll see more of those patterns and those kinds of systems as Nina forcing gets stronger.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2255699 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 6 2017, 02:49 PM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 6 2017, 02:47 PM) *
This morning's teleconnections forecast:

PNA weakening on schedule

Runs today





Take note that I'm not suggesting the cold leaves around the 18th-20th, but that should be when the pattern starts to change.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2255617 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 6 2017, 02:44 PM


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QUOTE(Denver Weather @ Dec 6 2017, 01:00 PM) *
What an awful weather pattern for the for the west. High and dry during what is normally one of the wettest times of the year. Very lousy Christmas skiing for most of the prime areas, to say the least (though the mountains of Mexico look quite promising!)

Look for more love in the second half of the winter. This pattern will only be a small part of this winter. I can't imagine we're gonna see a +PNA dominate through a moderate Nina. That ridge is going to break down.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2255615 · Replies: · Views: 293,882

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