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Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Today, 02:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Bought my self a home in Altmar NY (foothills of the tug hill plateau) and it has been absolutely bone dry as we are now in a moderate drought, we have seen 2”-3” of rain since the beginning of April..Tonight looks to be another missed opportunity sad.gif

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View of my property when we had a little bit of green lol

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331566 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 29 2018, 05:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Snow/rain mix with a temp of 35, just a couple days away from the start of May at an elevation less than 400 feet, pretty impressive!!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327105 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 02:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


QUOTE
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
around one half of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
due to the combination of ice and strong northeast winds.
Travel will be difficult at times, especially tonight and early
Sunday morning when pavement temperatures are coldest
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326197 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Gfs pretty nasty for wny/wcny..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326162 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 10:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Absolutely possible, worst conditions during the overnight hours..

April 2003 ice storm, Oswego ny..

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dougtone/sets...57606480240605/
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326067 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 10:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Sleet fest on the 12k nam with some ice mixed in and backend snow..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326063 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 07:57 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Wpc

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325920 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 07:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently
shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the
northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model
guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early)
season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to
track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a
steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front.
Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic
freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub-
freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but
still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation
possible. 00Z model consensus has trended Northeasterly winds will result in
significant wave action which may result in lakeshore flooding
and erosion along the southwestern shores of Lake Ontario.a
bit south/colder with the front and now shows a risk of
significant icing extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice
and sleet is a risk in the North Country where surface
temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the weekend.
Based on this, we will issue a winter weather advisory for all
areas expect the Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the
front, this may have to be added. There also is a risk the
North Country may approach warning criteria
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325911 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 03:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


QUOTE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a
tenth to a quarter inch are expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
due to the ice. Travel may be difficult at times
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325900 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 12:26 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Nws going with all rain atm, may need to start rethinking..

0z nam

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3k
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325890 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 12 2018, 04:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Sleet fest on the 18z 12k and 3k nam, temps stuck in the upper 20s for about 24 hrs while precipitating...

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325846 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 12 2018, 02:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Potential for a rare April ice event..

12z Euro
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12z nam
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12z 3k nam

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325829 · Replies: · Views: 16,883

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 07:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


It has snowed 7 of the 10 day in April, albeit light..

Euro says we’re not done..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325607 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 04:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Wow what a CF, visibility down to 0 with 40-50 mph gust..Quick 1/2” snow too..Reports of 75+ mpg in wny..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324832 · Replies: · Views: 6,366

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 27 2018, 02:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


How much of this actually accumulates is for another day..


0z euro
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323231 · Replies: · Views: 54,289

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 15 2018, 08:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Total precipitation was 1.11”, so about 18/1 ratios on avg..Snow depth was 14.5” and that’s with having several inches prior to this system, probably lost about 7”-8” over the past 2 days lol That’s what happens when it takes 30 hours to accumulate, in March, with powder snow..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2315556 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 15 2018, 07:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Cocorahs showing 19.6” in Fulton..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2315555 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 14 2018, 08:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


5” here so far since last night, one of those steady lazy all day snow events lol Rgem/hrrr cuts precipitation off around 2am after another 3/4” liquid or so..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314813 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 07:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547



...A LINE OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT WAYNE...CAYUGA AND OSWEGO
COUNTIES...

At 835 PM EDT, a line of heavy snow was located across Central
Oswego county and moving from the northeast to the southwest this
evening. Snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour is occuring
within this band of snow with visibilities of a half a mile or less.
If traveling east bound across Wayne, Cayuga, and Oswego county this
evening expect to encounter snow covered roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Irondequoit, Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park,
Ontario, Newark, Williamson, Marion and Lyons.


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314618 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 06:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Amazing to get snow from a system 1000 miles away lol If it wasn’t for Lake Ontario we would average 20” a year .. rolleyes.gif

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314603 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 03:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Snow picking up here as Radar continues to fill in and pivot from the NE..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314552 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 03:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Nws increased amounts for the 3rd straight package..

QUOTE
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Long duration moderate to heavy snow. Additional snow
accumulations of 12 to 22 inches are expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snowfall
will be over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western
Adirondacks.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314544 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 09:51 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


About 1.5” overnight, noticed new 3k nam still has over inch of precipitation, most coming between 6z wed-6z Thursday..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314428 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 13 2018, 03:37 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Upgraded from advisory to warning..

QUOTE
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches are expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
foothills of the Adirondacks.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, including
during the evening commute on Wednesday. Winds gusting as high
as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314258 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 12 2018, 05:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,533
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Could be some decent accumulation overnight for whoever sits under the ivt..This event is coming in like 3 waves hence the long duration WWA...

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2314022 · Replies: · Views: 93,871

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